The classic model of Markowitz for designing investment portfolios is an optimization problem with two objectives: maximize returns and minimize risk. Various alternatives and improvements have been proposed by different authors, who have contributed to the theory of portfolio selection. One of the most important contributions is the Sharpe Ratio, which allows comparison of the expected return of portfolios. Another important concept for investors is diversification, measured through the average correlation. In this measure, a high correlation indicates a low level of diversification, while a low correlation represents a high degree of diversification. In this work, three algorithms developed to solve the portfolio problem are presented. These algorithms used the Sharpe Ratio as the main metric to solve the problem of the aforementioned two objectives into only one objective: maximization of the Sharpe Ratio. The first, GENPO, used a Genetic Algorithm (GA). In contrast, the second and third algorithms, SAIPO and TAIPO used Simulated Annealing and Threshold Accepting algorithms, respectively. We tested these algorithms using datasets taken from the Mexican Stock Exchange. The findings were compared with other mathematical models of related works, and obtained the best results with the proposed algorithms.

This paper proposes a Methodology for Assets Selection in Investment Portfolios (MASIP) focused on creating investment portfolios using heuristic algorithms based on the Markowitz and Sharpe models. MASIP selects and allocates financial assets by applying heuristic methods to accomplish three assignments: (a) Select the stock candidates in an initial portfolio; (b) Forecast the asset values for the short and medium term; and (c) Optimize the investment portfolio by using the Sharpe metric. Once MASIP creates the initial portfolio and forecasts its assets, an optimization process is started in which a set with the best weights determines the participation of each asset. Moreover, a rebalancing process is carried out to enhance the portfolio value. We show that the improvement achieved by MASIP can reach 147% above the SP500 benchmark. We use a dataset of SP500 to compare MASIP with state-of-the-art methods, obtaining superior performance and an outstanding Sharpe Ratio and returns compared to traditional investment approaches. The heuristic algorithms proved effective in asset selection and allocation, and the forecasting process and rebalancing contributed to further improved results.

Accurate price forecasting and portfolio optimization in emerging financial markets remain challenging due to the non-stationary dynamics, structural breaks, and heterogeneous behavior of traded instruments. This paper proposes the Time-series Adaptive Forecast Ensemble (TAFE), a method that combines single popular forecasting methods, such as ARIMA, by using an algorithm derived from both the simulated annealing (SA) and Threshold Accepting algorithms. The TAFE is applied to twenty-four weekly price series of Mexican exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (FIBRAs) over the period 2020–2025. A top-K pre-selection strategy is used, mitigating the adverse cross-model interaction effect of some assets over others, in other words, reducing the propagation of errors from poorly performing base learners. In addition, the sample results show that the TAFE achieves the lowest mean SMAPE across the panel, with statistical superiority over the equal-weight benchmark and a Hybrid Model, confirmed by Diebold–Mariano and Harvey–Leybourne–Newbold tests. Out-of-sample evaluation over a 26-week horizon reveals a regime-shift-driven performance reversal consistent with the bias–variance tradeoff in adaptive combination schemes. Portfolio optimization using SA-generated forecasts yields with an expected return of 35.77%; thus, the model presents a slight overestimation of the return, with a variance of 2.4%. However, it has an acceptable level of risk.

An investment portfolio consists of a set of financial assets, such as stocks, fixed-income securities, mutual funds, and real estate, held to achieve diversification and to optimize returns. Accurate asset forecasting provides investors with valuable information to support decision-making. Although existing studies have proposed models for forecasting and portfolio optimization, most rely mainly on traditional techniques and metaheuristic approaches. This work introduces ESIPO (Ensemble Strategies for Investment Portfolio Optimization), a methodology that integrates deep learning and metaheuristic algorithms to perform asset forecasting and investment portfolio optimization. The dataset is obtained from the S&P 500 index, one of the main stock markets. To enhance forecasting accuracy, ESIPO combines five methods from the top-performing models of the international M4 competition: (a) ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and ETS (the statistical exponential-smoothing state-space), which represent classical statistical approaches; (b) FFORMA (Feature-based FORecast Model Averaging) and JAGANATHAN, two ensemble-based methods; (c) CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is one of the most common deep learning models. ESIPO improves the forecast performance of the portfolio by applying the TAIPO (Threshold Accepting Investment Portfolio Optimization) metaheuristic to select the best assets and optimize portfolio composition. The results obtained 45% of improvement according to the Sharpe Ratio metric.