This study investigates the impact of rising sea surface temperature (SST), increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and precipitation variability (PREC) on Korea’s coastal and offshore fisheries production (COFP) from 1993 to 2023 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results confirm a long-run cointegration relationship, where a 1% increase in SST, CO₂, and PREC is associated with respective declines of 3.52%, 0.82%, and 0.34% in COFP, respectively, suggesting persistent negative effects of ocean warming, acidification, and hydrological variability on fisheries production. Robustness checks using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) validate the stability of the ARDL results. The short-run analysis reveals that past production levels significantly influence current COFP, while SST fluctuations exhibit delayed but economically meaningful effects. The error correction term (−0.75, p < 0.01) confirms a rapid adjustment toward equilibrium following short-term deviations. These findings underscore the necessity of climate-resilient fisheries management. Policy recommendations include adaptive harvest regulations, climate-integrated stock assessments, and enhanced international cooperation for transboundary fish stocks. Additionally, expanding Marine Protected Areas, promoting climate-resilient aquaculture, and strengthening stock enhancement programs through selective breeding and seed release of climate-adapted species are essential for sustaining fisheries under climate change.

This study examined the spatial distribution and environmental determinants of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) catch volumes in the southern coastal waters of South Korea, employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) based on grid-level data collected from 2020 to 2022. Key explanatory variables included chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen, salinity, sea surface temperature, and fishing effort. Spatial autocorrelation was confirmed through Moran’s I test, justifying the application of a spatial econometric framework. Among the environmental factors, salinity exhibited the strongest positive direct effect on catch volumes, whereas dissolved oxygen consistently showed a negative effect. Chlorophyll-a concentration exhibited significant positive effects both within local grids and in neighboring areas. Sea surface temperature also had a modest but significant direct effect on catch volumes. Additionally, higher fishing effort was associated with increased catch volumes, emphasizing the spatial impact of human activities on fishery resources. These findings reveal that hairtail tend to aggregate in high-salinity, low-oxygen environments and respond to seasonal oceanographic variations. Overall, the results highlight the value of spatial econometric models in fisheries research by revealing how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence fish catch through both direct and indirect effects. The spatial framework offers deeper insight into the mechanisms driving hairtail distribution, particularly in ecologically complex regions like the Jeju Strait.