An algorithm to forecast very short-term (30–180 min) surface solar irradiance using visible and near infrared channels (AGRI) onboard the FengYun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite was constructed and evaluated in this study. The forecasting products include global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI). The forecast results were validated using data from Chengde Meteorological Observatory for four typical months (October 2018, and January, April, and July 2019), representing the four seasons. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was employed to calculate the cloud motion vector (CMV) field from the satellite images. The forecast results were compared with the smart persistence (SP) model. A seasonal study showed that July and April forecasting is more difficult than during October and January. For GHI forecasting, the algorithm outperformed the SP model for all forecasting horizons and all seasons, with the best result being produced in October; the skill score was greater than 20%. For DNI, the algorithm outperformed the SP model in July and October, with skill scores of about 12% and 11%, respectively. Annual performances were evaluated; the results show that the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) value of GHI for 30–180 min horizon ranged from 26.78% to 36.84%, the skill score reached a maximum of 20.44% at the 30-min horizon, and the skill scores were all above 0 for all time horizons. For DNI, the maximum skill score was 6.62% at the 180-min horizon. Overall, compared with the SP model, the proposed algorithm is more accurate and reliable for GHI forecasting and slightly better for DNI forecasting.

The accurate prediction of surface solar irradiance is of great significance for the generation of photovoltaic power. Surface solar irradiance is affected by many random mutation factors, which means that there are great challenges faced in short-term prediction. In Northwest China, there are abundant solar energy resources and large desert areas, which have broad prospects for the development of photovoltaic (PV) systems. For the desert areas in Northwest China, where meteorological stations are scarce, satellite remote sensing data are extremely precious exploration data. In this paper, we present a model using FY-4A satellite images to forecast (up to 15–180 min ahead) global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI), at a 15 min temporal resolution in desert areas under different sky conditions, and compare it with the persistence model (SP). The spatial resolution of the FY-4A satellite images we used was 1 km × 1 km. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) was used to derive the cloud motion vector (CMV) field from the satellite cloud images. The accuracy of the forecast model was evaluated by the ground observed GHI data. The results showed that the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) ranged from 18.9% to 21.6% and the normalized mean bias error (nMBE) ranged from 3.2% to 4.9% for time horizons from 15 to 180 min under all sky conditions. Compared with the SP model, the nRMSE value was reduced by about 6%, 8%, and 14% with the time horizons of 60, 120, and 180 min, respectively.

Accurate solar radiation estimation is very important for solar energy systems and is a precondition of solar energy utilization. Due to the rapid development of new energy sources, the demand for surface solar radiation estimation and observation has grown. Due to the scarcity of surface radiation observations, high-precision remote sensing data are trying to fill this gap. In this paper, a global solar irradiance estimation method (in different months, seasons, and weather conditions), using data from the advanced geosynchronous radiation imager (AGRI) sensor onboard the FengYun-4A satellite with cloud index methodology (CSD-SI), was tested. It was found that the FengYun-4A satellite data could be used to calculate the clear sky index through the Heliosat-2 method. Combined with McClear, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and the direct normal irradiance (DNI) in northeast China could be accurately obtained. The estimated GHI accuracy under clear sky was slightly affected by the seasons and the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) values (in four sites) were higher in summer and autumn (including all weather conditions). Compared to the estimated GHI, the estimated DNI was less accurate. It was found that the estimated DNI in October had the best performance. In the meantime, the nRMSE, the normalized mean absolute error (nMAE), and the normalized mean bias error (nMBE) of Zhangbei were 35.152%, 27.145%, and −8.283%, while for Chengde, they were 43.150%, 28.822%, and −13.017%, respectively. In addition, the estimated DNI at ground level was significantly higher than the actual observed value in autumn and winter. Considering that the error mainly came from the overestimation of McClear, a new DNI radiation algorithm during autumn and winter is proposed for northern China. After applying the new algorithm, the nRMSE decreased from 49.324% to 48.226% for Chengde and from 48.342% to 41.631% for Zhangbei. Similarly, the nMBE decreased from −32.351% to −18.823% for Zhangbei and from −26.211% to −9.107% for Chengde.

The global warming effect has been accelerating rapidly and poses a threat to human survival and health. The top priority to solve this problem is to provide reliable renewable energy. To achieve this goal, it is important to provide fast and accurate solar radiation predictions based on limited observation data. In this study, a fast and accurate solar radiation nowcasting method is proposed by combining FY-4A satellite data and the McClear clear sky model under the condition of only radiation observation. The results show that the random forest (RF) performed better than the support vector regression (SVR) model and the reference model (Clim-Pers), with the smallest normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) values (between 13.90% and 33.80%), smallest normalized mean absolute error (nMAE) values (between 7.50% and 24.77%), smallest normalized mean bias error (nMBE) values (between −1.17% and 0.7%) and highest R² values (between 0.76 and 0.95) under different time horizons. In addition, it can be summarized that remote sensing data can significantly improve the radiation forecasting performance and can effectively guarantee the stability of radiation predictions when the time horizon exceeds 60 min. Furthermore, to obtain the optimal operation efficiency, the prediction results were interpreted by introducing the latest SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. From the interpretation results, we selected the three key channels of an FY-4A and then made the model lightweight. Compared with the original input model, the new one predicted the results more rapidly. For instance, the lightweight parameter input model needed only 0.3084 s (compared to 0.5591 s for full parameter input) per single data point on average for the 10 min global solar radiation forecast in Yuzhong. Meanwhile, the prediction effect also remained stable and reliable. Overall, the new method showed its advantages in radiation prediction under the condition that only solar radiation observations were available. This is very important for radiation prediction in cities with scarce meteorological observation, and it can provide a reference for the location planning of photovoltaic power stations.

The evolution of plateau monsoons is essential to synoptic climatology processes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis data covering 1979–2014 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we propose a new plateau monsoon index (ZPMI) that can effectively reflect the evolution of monsoons and compare this new index with the existing Plateau Monsoon Indices (PMI), i.e., the Traditional Plateau Monsoon Index (TPMI), the Dynamic Plateau Monsoon Index (DPMI), and the PMI proposed by Qi et al. (QPMI). The results show that the onset and retreat of plateau monsoons determined by the TPMI are approximately 1–2 months earlier than those of the ZPMI and DPMI and that the ZPMI can better reflect seasonal and inter-annual variations in precipitation over the plateau. The plateau summer and winter monsoons have similar inter-annual and inter-decadal variation characteristics and show a rising trend, but the increasing trend of the summer monsoon is more significant. The ZPMI is also capable of effectively reflecting meteorological elements. In stronger plateau summer monsoon years, more (less) precipitation and a higher (lower) air temperature appear over the eastern and central (western) plateau. The ZPMI and soil moisture in April and May are used to explore the influence of soil moisture on plateau monsoons, and a significant correlation is found between the plateau soil moisture in the spring (April–May) and plateau summer monsoons. It is found that when the soil moisture over the central and eastern plateau is higher (lower) than normal (while the soil moisture over the western plateau is lower (higher)), the plateau summer monsoon may be stronger (weaker).