This study examined land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in the Manas River Basin from 2000 to 2020 due to rapid socioeconomic development. It aims to provide a scientific basis for protecting the ecological security of the river basin and achieving sustainable development of the land. The LULC data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 were utilized to establish the LULC transition matrix and calculate the LULC dynamics to analyze the dynamic evolution of LULC in the basin from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was constructed to explore the driving mechanism of the conversion between various land types in the basin. The key findings include the following. (1) From 2000 to 2010, grassland experienced the most significant reduction (3222.08 km²), whereas farmland expanded the most (3126.77 km²). (2) The most rapid expansion occurred in farmland (6.24%) and built-up areas (2.25%) in the 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 periods, respectively. Conversely, forest land showed the most rapid decrease, with −6.07% from 2000 to 2010, and −0.86% from 2010 to 2020. (3) The degree of influence of each driving factor on different LULC types (contribution degree) obtained by constructing the PLUS model shows that, during the twenty years, population was the predominant factor affecting farmland changes and built-up areas, with contribution degrees of 0.17 and 0.26, respectively. Temperature was the primary influencer of forest-land changes, with a contribution degree of 0.17, and elevation significantly impacted grassland changes, with a contribution degree of 0.21. This study provides crucial insights into the interaction between LULC dynamics and environmental and demographic factors in the Manas River Basin.

The rapid socioeconomic development of the Manas River Basin from 2000 to 2020 has substantially altered land use patterns, thereby exerting considerable influence on regional sustainable development. This study employed GIS techniques, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model, and the PLUS model to analyze the evolutionary patterns of land use, investigate the underlying driving mechanisms, and simulate the spatial patterns of land use under multiple scenarios for 2030. The results indicate that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the spatial pattern of land use in the basin underwent notable changes, with cropland and built-up land expanding by 3300.80 km² and 219.87 km², respectively, reflecting a continuous increase in land use intensity; (2) Distance to highway emerged as the strongest driving factor, with its q-value consistently exceeding 0.80 throughout the study period. Interaction detection further revealed that the interactive q-values of all driving factors were greater than their corresponding single-factor q-values, indicating that the spatial differentiation of land use in the basin is governed by the synergistic control of multiple factors; (3) among the simulated scenarios, the ecological protection scenario effectively maintained the stability of ecological land while preserving land use type changes, demonstrating greater potential for regional sustainable development. The findings of this study can provide a reasonable scientific basis for the sustainable allocation of land resources in the Manas River Basin.