In the context of global warming, the acceleration of the water cycle increases the risk of meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) in the arid region of Northwest China. The Manas River Basin is a typical agricultural oasis and the largest oasis farming area in Xinjiang, Northwest China. Droughts in this basin have significant implications for both agricultural production and the livelihoods of inhabitants. To evaluate the MD and HD and provide information for drought relief in the MRB, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) were calculated using long-term rainfall and runoff data. Subsequently, combined with ArcGIS 10.3 software and the trend analysis method, the SPEI and SRI characteristics were evaluated at different time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month). There were three main findings. First, both MD and HD were alleviated, with significantly more HD alleviation. MDs in spring and autumn exhibited a trend of aggravation. The SRIs in summer, autumn, and winter increased significantly at a confidence level of p < 0.01, with an insignificant decline in spring. In the 2010s, the frequency of light drought of MD was stable at 10% to 20%, while severe and extreme droughts increased. The frequency of HDs has decreased since the 1990s. Second, on annual and seasonal scales, MDs occurred mainly as light and moderate droughts. The highest frequency of MD was 24% of moderate droughts in winter. Spatially, the northern region of the MRB was characterized by more frequent light and extreme droughts. Third, runoff in the Manas River Basin increased significantly during the 1990s, which may have been related to the acceleration of glacial retreat in the Tianshan Mountains. This study can effectively reveal the changes in meteorological and hydrological drought in NWC and provide the basis for risk decision-making and management for watershed managers.

This study examined land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in the Manas River Basin from 2000 to 2020 due to rapid socioeconomic development. It aims to provide a scientific basis for protecting the ecological security of the river basin and achieving sustainable development of the land. The LULC data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 were utilized to establish the LULC transition matrix and calculate the LULC dynamics to analyze the dynamic evolution of LULC in the basin from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was constructed to explore the driving mechanism of the conversion between various land types in the basin. The key findings include the following. (1) From 2000 to 2010, grassland experienced the most significant reduction (3222.08 km²), whereas farmland expanded the most (3126.77 km²). (2) The most rapid expansion occurred in farmland (6.24%) and built-up areas (2.25%) in the 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 periods, respectively. Conversely, forest land showed the most rapid decrease, with −6.07% from 2000 to 2010, and −0.86% from 2010 to 2020. (3) The degree of influence of each driving factor on different LULC types (contribution degree) obtained by constructing the PLUS model shows that, during the twenty years, population was the predominant factor affecting farmland changes and built-up areas, with contribution degrees of 0.17 and 0.26, respectively. Temperature was the primary influencer of forest-land changes, with a contribution degree of 0.17, and elevation significantly impacted grassland changes, with a contribution degree of 0.21. This study provides crucial insights into the interaction between LULC dynamics and environmental and demographic factors in the Manas River Basin.