Total evaporation from the vast terrain of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may strongly influence downwind regions. However, the ultimate fate of this moisture remains unclear. This study tracked and quantified TP‐originating moisture using an extended Eulerian model. The findings reveal that the involvement of moisture from the TP in the downwind precipitation is most pronounced near the eastern boundary of the TP and gradually diminishes eastward. Consequently, the TP moisture ratio in precipitation reaches the highest of over 30% over the central‐eastern TP. 44.9%–46.7% of TP annual evaporation is recycled over the TP, and 65.1%–66.8% of the TP evaporation is reprecipitated over terrestrial China. Moisture recycling of TP origin shows strong seasonal variation, with seasonal patterns largely determined by precipitation, evaporation and wind fields. High levels of evaporation and precipitation over the TP in summer maximize local recycling intensity and recycling ratios. Annual precipitation of TP origin increased mainly around the northeastern TP during 2000–2020. This region consumed more than half of the increased TP evaporation. Further analyses showed that changes in reprecipitation of TP origin were consistent with precipitation trends in nearby downwind areas: when intensified TP evaporation meets intensified precipitation, more TP moisture is precipitated out. The model estimated an annual precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) of 26.9%–30.8% in forward moisture tracking. However, due to the non‐closure issue of the atmospheric moisture balance equation, the annual PRR in backward tracking can be ∼6% lower.

Food security constitutes a fundamental pillar of future sustainable development. A systematic evaluation of the impact of urban expansion on food security is critical to advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly “Zero Hunger” (SDG 2). Drawing on bibliographic data from the Web of Science Core Collection, this study employs the bibliometrix package in R to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on the “urban expansion–food security” nexus spanning from 1982 to 2024. The analysis focuses on knowledge production, collaborative structures, and thematic research trends. The results indicate the following: (1) The publication trajectory in this field exhibits a generally increasing trend with three distinct phases: an incubation period (1982–2000), a development phase (2001–2014), and a phase of rapid growth (2015–2024). Land Use Policy stands out as the most influential journal in the domain, with an average citation rate of 43.5 per article. (2) China and the United States are the leading contributors in terms of publication output, with 3491 and 1359 articles, respectively. However, their international collaboration rates remain relatively modest (0.19 and 0.35) and considerably lower than those observed for the United Kingdom (0.84) and Germany (0.76), suggesting significant potential for enhanced global research cooperation. (3) The major research hotspots cluster around four core areas: urban expansion and land use dynamics, agricultural systems and food security, environmental and climate change, and socio-economic and policy drivers. These focal areas reflect a high degree of interdisciplinary integration, particularly involving land system science, agroecology, and socio-economic studies. Collectively, the field has established a relatively robust academic network and coherent knowledge framework. Nonetheless, it still confronts several limitations, including geographical imbalances, fragmented research scales, and methodological heterogeneity. Future efforts should emphasize cross-regional, interdisciplinary, and multi-scalar integration to strengthen the systematic understanding of urban expansion–food security interactions, thereby informing global strategies for sustainable development.

The global food security landscape is increasingly precarious as climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and pandemics compound its complexity. Concurrently, rapid urbanization has precipitated widespread loss of agricultural land in the North China Plain, yet research on the spatiotemporal dynamics of this conversion process—and its specific impacts on agricultural production potential—remains limited. In this study, we employ multi-temporal land use data from the China Land Use/Cover Change (CNLUCC) dataset for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, alongside 1980 agricultural production potential data, to examine land use changes in the North China Plain over the period 1980–2020. Our analysis centers on the pace and intensity of urban expansion within city boundaries, the consequent loss of agricultural land, and the resulting decline in agricultural production potential. Findings reveal that, during this period, agricultural land—the predominant land use type—has been increasingly converted to urban areas, directly accounting for a loss of 1.25 × 10⁴ km² of farmland, with approximately 78.91% of new urban developments established on former agricultural lands. Cities such as Beijing, Linyi, and Zhengzhou have experienced the most substantial direct losses of farmland. Moreover, the speed and intensity of urban expansion exhibit significant spatial variability, following a distinct “higher in the center, lower at the periphery” pattern in agricultural land consumption, alongside an overall upward trend in expansion intensity. Between 1980 and 2020, the region experienced an aggregate loss of 7.03 × 10⁹ kg in food production, with spatial patterns indicating lower losses in the north and higher losses in the central and southern regions. Cities including Tangshan, Baoding, Beijing, and Zhumadian incurred the highest reductions in agricultural production potential, whereas cities such as Jiyuan and Chengde exhibited relatively lower losses. This study underscores the spatial disparities in agricultural land loss and production potential depletion driven by urban expansion in the North China Plain, offering critical insights for land use planning and the promotion of sustainable regional development.

The accelerating process of global urbanization has substantially reshaped land use patterns, exerting profound influences on the dynamics of ecosystem service provision. Effective and adaptive ecosystem management necessitates the quantitative identification and analysis of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their underlying driving mechanisms. Using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, this research examines land use dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and projects land use patterns for 2030 under alternative development scenarios. Building upon this foundation, the study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of four key ecosystem services—Carbon Storage (CS), Water Yield (WY), Habitat Quality (HQ), and Soil Retention (SDR)—from 2000 to 2030, while elucidating the differential impacts and underlying mechanisms of the driving factors on these services. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, cultivated land remained the dominant land use type (47.71%), followed by forestland (21.44%) and grassland (16.23%), whereas built-up land expanded significantly from 8.12% to 12.74%; (2) the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas reached 47.65%, high-value WY areas increased by 4.9%, low-value HQ areas expanded by 4.28%, and low-value SDR areas accounted for 84.44%; (3) the PLUS model validation yielded a Kappa coefficient of 86.1%, indicating high simulation accuracy. Scenario-based predictions suggest that under an ecological protection scenario, the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas would increase by 0.59%, whereas under an economic development scenario, these areas would decline by 2.57%, with low-value HQ areas expanding by 2.04%; (4) slope (X₂) was identified as the dominant factor influencing CS (q = 0.22), HQ (q = 0.36–0.42), and SDR (q = 0.42), while mean annual precipitation (X₄) played a crucial role in determining WY. Furthermore, socioeconomic activities, particularly increasing population density, exhibited a growing negative impact on HQ and CS, highlighting the intensifying role of anthropogenic interventions in shaping ecosystem service patterns. This study unveils the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms in the context of urbanization, offering valuable insights to inform regional ecological conservation and sustainable development policies.