Land use change has significant impacts on the regional and global environment; thus, in-depth research on the associated ecological risks is necessary for promoting ecological restoration and sustainable development. Xinjiang, China, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment, and this study aimed to predict the land use change in the region in 2030 under different scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and urban development, by using the PLUS model based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Based on the landscape structure of regional ecosystems, we developed a comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework by utilizing a combination of landscape disturbance index, vulnerability index, and loss index. This framework allowed us to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and variations of landscape ecological risks under different scenarios in 2030. The study results indicate the following: (1) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the primary landscape type in Xinjiang was unused land. However, significant changes were observed in the area of cultivated land, mainly due to the conversion of grassland and construction land. The expansion of construction land during the urbanization process resulted in a decline in ecological landscapes, such as grassland, thereby weakening the ecosystem’s stability. (2) Under different simulation scenarios, the urban development scenario primarily led to the conversion of unused land into construction land, which is beneficial for economic development. On the other hand, the ecological conservation scenario resulted in a modest increase in construction land and a transformation of unused land into forest and grassland, which aligns with the principles of sustainable development. (3) Different scenarios in 2030 result in varying degrees of changes in each landscape type in Xinjiang, with the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks remaining similar to those observed in 2020. Notably, under the urban development scenario, the area of lowest and medium risk areas decreases significantly while the area of higher and highest risk areas increases substantially. Conversely, under the ecological conservation scenario, the area of the lowest risk areas experiences a more significant increase. (4) Overall, the spatial differences in the ecological risk of Xinjiang’s landscape are significant, with HH and LL clustering types predominating and presenting a polarization pattern. The distribution pattern is low in the north and high in the central and southern parts of the study area.

Since the inception of China’s reform and opening-up policy, the rapidly advancing process of urbanization and the primacy accorded to urban development policies have imparted increasingly profound ramifications on rural domains. Nonetheless, antecedent research has predominantly fixated on urban sprawl, overlooking the spatial metamorphosis of rural settlements and the prospective developmental trajectories within the policy paradigm. Consequently, this inquiry endeavors to scrutinize the evolution of the spatial configuration of rural settlements in She County from the advent of reform and opening-up (1980–2020) utilizing remote sensing data. In tandem, through scenario delineation and the utilization of the CLUE-S model, it aspires to prognosticate the evolving trends in the spatial arrangements of rural settlements in She County by 2035. The empirical findings divulge that (1) The temporal progression of rural settlement spatial configurations in She County over the preceding four decades can be delineated into two discernible phases. From 1980 to 2000, alterations in the number, extent, and spatial morphological attributes of rural settlements remained circumscribed. While the count of rural settlements registered a diminution (by 3), the aggregate extent experienced a marginal augmentation (by 8.45%), concomitant with a gradual gravitation towards regular boundaries, manifesting a stochastic distribution throughout the investigation expanse. Conversely, from 2000 to 2020, the quantity and extent of rural settlements in She County underwent a precipitous augmentation (92 and 36.37%, respectively), characterized by irregular peripheries. (2) The CLUE-S model achieved an overall precision of 0.929, underscoring its applicability in emulating fluctuations in rural settlements. (3) Within the new-type urbanization scenario, the cumulative expanse of rural settlements witnessed a decline of 35.36% compared to the natural development scenario, marked by substantial conversions into grassland and urban land usage. Furthermore, orchestrated planning and directive measures have propelled the consolidation of rural settlements in She County, engendering a more equitable and standardized layout. Under the aegis of the ecological conservation scenario, the total rural settlement area recorded a 0.38% reduction vis-à-vis the natural development scenario, primarily entailing competitive coexistence with arable land, grassland, and urban land usage in spatial terms.

As global urbanization advances, the expansion of urban land has subjected cities to increasingly frequent and extensive external disturbances, often revealing limitations in disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, particularly in regions characterized by high urbanization, environmental degradation, and recurrent natural disasters. This study investigates the association between urban land expansion and urban resilience, developing a targeted analytical framework to assess their coupling and coordination. Leveraging remote sensing data on land use and socio-economic development indicators, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index encompassing social, economic, ecological, and infrastructural dimensions. Examining three principal urban agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Basin, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics and rates of change in urban land area and resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. A coupling coordination model was applied to assess the alignment between the rate of urban land expansion and resilience improvement, ultimately aiming to derive actionable policy recommendations. The results demonstrate that: (1) both the intensity and rate of urban land expansion across urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin have declined, indicating a shift in urbanization focus from “land expansion” to “quality enhancement,” with a slowdown in the conversion of agricultural to urban land. (2) Urban land expansion exhibits weak directionality, with land expansion occurring uniformly within the region. (3) On the whole, resilience levels in the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations remain moderate or lower, although showing gradual improvement. (4) The coordination between urban land area and urban resilience across the basin is limited, with a declining alignment between urban land expansion and resilience enhancement rates, signaling an emerging imbalance. By assessing the coordination between urban land expansion and resilience, this study seeks to inform policy development on urban land management and resilience enhancement within the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations.

As the carrier of global urbanization, urban land is the basic means of productivity and life of urban residents. Urban land management is of great significance to global climate change mitigation, improving ecological quality, promoting economic development, and ensuring sustainable urban development. At present, although studies on urban land management have accumulated at the global level, the differences in research methods, objectives, and perspectives have led to the fragmentation and confusion of research conclusions. Therefore, it is necessary to review the literature of urban land management, clarify the research contexts, grasp the research progress, and predict the research trends. Bibliometrics, as a quantitative analysis method of literature review analysis, is more comprehensive and objective than relying only on a literature review. It is of great value to grasp the topics and trends of the research field from an overall perspective. In this paper, the Bibliometrix R software package was used to conduct an econometric literature analysis on urban land management from 1979 to 2021, using the Web of Science database. The results showed that: (1) the annual scientific research output and citation frequency in the field of urban land management has generally increased. Combined with the annual change trend of scientific research output, urban land management research can be divided into three stages: the budding period, from 1979 to 1989, the development period, from 1990 to 2008, and the high-yield period, from 2009 to 2021. (2) The 129 countries/regions reviewed differed in their research output, and developed countries showed strong research. The United States, China, and Australia were the top three countries in terms of solo publications and cooperation publications. In addition, among the 16,270 authors, the top three authors were Pradhan, Zhao, and Li. (3) The top three keywords in the field of urban land management were “Management”, “City/Cities” and “Land Use”. The research topics can be divided into three stages. The first stage covers studies with topics of “Management”, “Urbanization” and “GIS”, from 1979 to 2013. From 2014 to 2018, the research topics were gradually enriched by “Urbanization”, “Impact”, “System”, “GIS”, “Management”, “Policy”, “Conservation” and “land”, with a trend towards multidisciplinary and multi-perspective comprehensive analyses. From 2019 to 2021, “Management” and “Climate Change” were the main topics.

Food security constitutes a fundamental pillar of future sustainable development. A systematic evaluation of the impact of urban expansion on food security is critical to advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly “Zero Hunger” (SDG 2). Drawing on bibliographic data from the Web of Science Core Collection, this study employs the bibliometrix package in R to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on the “urban expansion–food security” nexus spanning from 1982 to 2024. The analysis focuses on knowledge production, collaborative structures, and thematic research trends. The results indicate the following: (1) The publication trajectory in this field exhibits a generally increasing trend with three distinct phases: an incubation period (1982–2000), a development phase (2001–2014), and a phase of rapid growth (2015–2024). Land Use Policy stands out as the most influential journal in the domain, with an average citation rate of 43.5 per article. (2) China and the United States are the leading contributors in terms of publication output, with 3491 and 1359 articles, respectively. However, their international collaboration rates remain relatively modest (0.19 and 0.35) and considerably lower than those observed for the United Kingdom (0.84) and Germany (0.76), suggesting significant potential for enhanced global research cooperation. (3) The major research hotspots cluster around four core areas: urban expansion and land use dynamics, agricultural systems and food security, environmental and climate change, and socio-economic and policy drivers. These focal areas reflect a high degree of interdisciplinary integration, particularly involving land system science, agroecology, and socio-economic studies. Collectively, the field has established a relatively robust academic network and coherent knowledge framework. Nonetheless, it still confronts several limitations, including geographical imbalances, fragmented research scales, and methodological heterogeneity. Future efforts should emphasize cross-regional, interdisciplinary, and multi-scalar integration to strengthen the systematic understanding of urban expansion–food security interactions, thereby informing global strategies for sustainable development.

The hilly and gully region of the Loess Plateau represents one of China’s most ecologically vulnerable landscapes, characterized by severe soil erosion, intensive land use, and pronounced disturbances to the structure and functionality of ecosystem services. Taking Zichang City as a case study, this research integrates grid-scale analysis with the InVEST-PLUS model and bivariate spatial autocorrelation techniques to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics and inter-relations of four critical ecosystem services—carbon storage, water yield, biodiversity, and soil retention—under varying land use intensity scenarios from 1990 to 2035. The findings indicate that (1) between 1990 and 2020, land use intensity in Zichang City steadily declined, exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern typified by central-area clustering and gradual peripheral transitions. (2) Across three development scenarios, the spatial distribution of the four ecosystem services aligned with the patterns observed in 2020, with central areas showing pronounced fluctuations, whereas peripheral regions experienced relatively minor changes. Specifically, from 1990 to 2020, the proportion of low-carbon storage areas increased by 2.89%, and high water yield areas expanded by 9.45%, while the shares of low habitat quality and low soil retention areas decreased by 5.59% and 6.25%, respectively. (3) A significant spatial autocorrelation was observed between land use intensity and the four ecosystem services, with widespread cold and hot spots reflecting dynamic spatial clustering patterns. These results offer valuable insights for optimizing land use strategies, improving ecosystem service performance, and advancing ecological conservation and sustainable development initiatives.