This paper adopts a comprehensive approach to integrating the wood forest product trade of China’s provinces with the global market, utilizing over 4 million records of trade data from the Chinese Customs database and the United Nations Trade and Commerce database, creating a three-dimensional panel dataset structured by year—province—importing country. The paper decomposes the export trade share into extensive margin, quantity margin, and price margin, collectively referred to as the ternary margins of export, to analyze the impact of imported timber price fluctuations on these export margins of wood forest products. The findings indicate that fluctuations in imported timber prices increase uncertainty, thereby suppressing the growth of China’s wood forest product export share, extensive margin, and quantity margin while increasing the price margin. Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the impact of imported timber price fluctuations is more pronounced for southern forest regions, labor-intensive wood products, and countries without a Free Trade Agreement. Mechanism tests suggest that increasing forestry fixed asset investment intensity and enhancing timber supply capacity can help mitigate the uncertainty effects associated with imported timber price fluctuations. The paper proposes policy implications, including enhancing local timber supply resilience, strengthening government support for forestry, and reinforcing the supply chain.

Russia is an important supplier of timber to China, and the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on China’s timber imports. Based on the provincial-level timber import trade data in China from January 2020 to December 2024, three-dimensional panel data of time–province–export country were constructed, and the difference-in-differences model was used to analyze the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on China’s timber imports from Russia. The results show that (1) the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict significantly reduced the volume of timber imports from Russia across Chinese provinces; (2) the Russia–Ukraine conflict adversely affected China’s timber imports from Russia by increasing price volatility and constraining Russia’s timber supply capacity; (3) based on the heterogeneity test results, the negative impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on timber imports from Russia was more pronounced in regions with a high degree of industrialization and greater dependence on imported timber; (4) the Russia–Ukraine conflict raised China’s timber import prices and intensified price volatility. Therefore, it is essential to enhance the overall risk management capacity of the timber industry supply chain by building a diversified timber supply system, strengthening the strategic reserves of timber resources, and improving price risk management instruments, in order to effectively respond to the impact of geopolitical conflicts.

Based on global bilateral six-digit HS code trade data of wood forest products from 2000 to 2022, we constructed a three-dimensional panel dataset combining year, importing country, and exporting country, and used a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to systematically examine the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on the export of wood forest products and the mechanisms through which they operate. The results show that the signing of RTAs exerts a significant promoting effect on the export market share, extensive margin, and quantity margin of wood forest products, while exerting a significant negative effect on the price margin. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of signing RTAs on the ternary margin of wood forest product exports varies significantly with product characteristics, bilateral distance, and the type of trade agreement. Mechanism analysis shows that RTAs produce these effects by reducing bilateral trade costs and strengthening bilateral social ties. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations to strengthen the RTA network, optimize the bilateral trade environment, and enhance the depth of environmental provisions in RTAs to promote the green and high-quality development of wood forest products.

China’s Against the backdrop of the global low-carbon transition, balancing ecological protection and economic development has become a critical challenge. This study aims to examine whether and how the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy enhances urban industrial transformation momentum. Using panel data from 283 Chinese cities during 2008–2023, we employ a double machine learning (DDML) approach and use industrial robot installation density as a proxy for industrial development momentum. The results show that the LCCP policy significantly promotes industrial transformation and upgrading. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy strengthens transformation momentum by enhancing government support and increasing public environmental awareness, particularly in cities with lower innovation costs. The effects are more pronounced in resource-based cities, non-old industrial bases, and economically developed cities, while also exacerbating regional disparities as more developed cities benefit more. These findings provide important implications for achieving coordinated development between carbon reduction and industrial transformation.