Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984–2012) to thirty‐year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical‐deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in‐stream transport is projected to increase by 1%–5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate‐driven changes in high‐elevation hydrology have impacts on basinwide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)‐induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high‐resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB‐affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB‐affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope‐scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field‐based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope‐scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB‐induced tree mortality was offset by increased late‐summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB‐induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long‐term gage observations that are complicated by inter‐annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB‐affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.