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Niamey, the capital of Niger, is particularly prone to floods, since it is on the banks of the Niger River, which in its middle basin has two flood peaks: one in summer (the red flood) and one in winter (the black flood). In 2020, the Niger River in Niamey reached its all-time highest levels following an abundant rainy season. On the other hand, the floods in Niamey have been particularly frequent in the last decade, a symptom of a change in hydroclimatic behaviour already observed since the end of the great droughts of the 1970s and 1980s and which is identified with the name of Sahelian Paradox. This study, starting from the analysis of the 2020 flood and from the update of the rating curve of the Niamey hydrometric station, analyses the rainfall–runoff relationship on the Sahelian basins of the Medium Niger River Basin (MNRB) that are at the origin of the local flood. The comparative analysis of runoffs, annual maximum flows (AMAX) and runoff coefficients with various rainfall indices calculated on gridded datasets allowed to hydroclimatically characterise the last decade as a different period from the wet one before the drought, the dry one and the post-drought one. Compared to the last one, the current period is characterised by a sustained increase in hydrological indicators (AMAX +27%) consistent with the increase in both the accumulation of precipitation (+11%) and the number (+51%) and magnitude (+54%) of extreme events in the MNRB. Furthermore, a greater concentration of rainfall and extremes (+78%) in August contributes to reinforcing the red flood’s positive anomalies (+2.23 st.dev in 2020). The study indicates that under these conditions the frequency of extreme hydrological events in Niamey will tend to increase further also because of the concurrence of drivers such as river-bed silting and levee effects. Consequently, the study concludes with the need for a comprehensive flood-risk assessment on the Niamey city that considers both recent hydroclimatic trends and urbanisation dynamics in flood zones hence defining the most appropriate risk-reduction strategies.
Giovanni Massazza; Maurizio Bacci; Luc Descroix; Mohamed Ibrahim; Edoardo Fiorillo; Gaptia Katiellou; Geremy Panthou; Alessandro Pezzoli; Maurizio Rosso; Elisa Sauzedde; Andrea Terenziani; Tiziana De Filippis; Leandro Rocchi; Sara Burrone; Maurizio Tiepolo; Théo Vischel; Vieri Tarchiani. Recent Changes in Hydroclimatic Patterns over Medium Niger River Basins at the Origin of the 2020 Flood in Niamey (Niger). Water 2021, 13, 1659 .
AMA StyleGiovanni Massazza, Maurizio Bacci, Luc Descroix, Mohamed Ibrahim, Edoardo Fiorillo, Gaptia Katiellou, Geremy Panthou, Alessandro Pezzoli, Maurizio Rosso, Elisa Sauzedde, Andrea Terenziani, Tiziana De Filippis, Leandro Rocchi, Sara Burrone, Maurizio Tiepolo, Théo Vischel, Vieri Tarchiani. Recent Changes in Hydroclimatic Patterns over Medium Niger River Basins at the Origin of the 2020 Flood in Niamey (Niger). Water. 2021; 13 (12):1659.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiovanni Massazza; Maurizio Bacci; Luc Descroix; Mohamed Ibrahim; Edoardo Fiorillo; Gaptia Katiellou; Geremy Panthou; Alessandro Pezzoli; Maurizio Rosso; Elisa Sauzedde; Andrea Terenziani; Tiziana De Filippis; Leandro Rocchi; Sara Burrone; Maurizio Tiepolo; Théo Vischel; Vieri Tarchiani. 2021. "Recent Changes in Hydroclimatic Patterns over Medium Niger River Basins at the Origin of the 2020 Flood in Niamey (Niger)." Water 13, no. 12: 1659.
Agriculture production in Nigerien rural areas mainly depends on weather variability. Weather forecasts produced by national or international bodies have very limited dissemination in rural areas and even if broadcast by local radio, they remain generic and limited to short-term information. According to several experiences in West Africa, weather and climate services (WCSs) have great potential to support farmers’ decision making. The challenge is to reach local communities with tailored information about the future weather to support strategic and tactical crop management decisions. WCSs, in West Africa, are mainly based on short-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts, while medium-range weather forecasts, even if potentially very useful for crop management, are rarely produced. This paper presents the results of a pilot initiative in Niger to reach farming communities with 10-day forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—Global Forecast System (NOAA-GFS) produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). After the implementation of the download and treatment chain, the Niger National Meteorological Directorate can provide 10-day agrometeorological forecasts to the agricultural extension services in eight rural municipalities. Exploiting the users’ evaluation of the forecasts, an analysis of usability and overall performance of the service is described. The results demonstrate that, even in rural and remote areas, agrometeorological forecasts are valued as powerful and useful information for decision-making processes. The service can be implemented at low cost with effective technologies making it affordable and sustainable even in developing countries. Nonetheless, the service’s effectiveness depends on several aspects mainly related to the way information is communicated to the public.
Maurizio Bacci; Youchaou Ousman Baoua; Vieri Tarchiani. Agrometeorological Forecast for Smallholder Farmers: A Powerful Tool for Weather-Informed Crops Management in the Sahel. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3246 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Bacci, Youchaou Ousman Baoua, Vieri Tarchiani. Agrometeorological Forecast for Smallholder Farmers: A Powerful Tool for Weather-Informed Crops Management in the Sahel. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (8):3246.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Bacci; Youchaou Ousman Baoua; Vieri Tarchiani. 2020. "Agrometeorological Forecast for Smallholder Farmers: A Powerful Tool for Weather-Informed Crops Management in the Sahel." Sustainability 12, no. 8: 3246.
Hydro-climatic risk assessments at the regional scale are of little use in the risk treatment decision-making process when they are only based on local or scientific knowledge and when they deal with a single risk at a time. Local and scientific knowledge can be combined in a multi-hazard risk assessment to contribute to sustainable rural development. The aim of this article was to develop a multi-hazard risk assessment at the regional scale which classifies communities according to the risk level, proposes risk treatment actions, and can be replicated in the agropastoral, semi-arid Tropics. The level of multi-hazard risk of 13 communities of Hodh Chargui (Mauritania) exposed to meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought, as well as heavy precipitations, was ascertained with an index composed of 48 indicators representing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Community meetings and visits to exposed items enabled specific indicators to be identified. Scientific knowledge was used to determine the hazard with Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets, Landsat images, and the method used to rank the communities. The northern communities are at greater risk of agricultural drought and those at the foot of the uplands are more at risk of heavy rains and consequent flash floods. The assessment proposes 12 types of actions to treat the risk in the six communities with severe and high multi-hazard risk.
Maurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci; Sarah Braccio; Stefano Bechis. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5063 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Tiepolo, Maurizio Bacci, Sarah Braccio, Stefano Bechis. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (18):5063.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci; Sarah Braccio; Stefano Bechis. 2019. "Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania." Sustainability 11, no. 18: 5063.
International aid for climate change adaptation in West Africa is increasing exponentially, but our understanding of hydroclimatic risks is not keeping pace with that increase. The aim of this article is to develop a multihazard risk assessment on a regional scale based on existing information that can be repeated over time and space and that will be useful during decision-making processes. This assessment was conducted in Dosso (Niger), the region most hit by flooding in the country, with the highest hydroclimatic risk in West Africa. The assessment characterizes the climate, identifies hazards, and analyzes multihazard risk over the 2011–2017 period for each of the region’s 43 municipalities. Hazards and risk level are compared to the intervention areas and actions of 6 municipal development plans and 12 adaptation and resilience projects. Over the past seven years, heavy precipitation and dry spells in the Dosso region have been more frequent than during the previous 30-year period. As many as 606 settlements have been repeatedly hit and 15 municipalities are classified as being at elevated-to-severe multihazard risk. The geographical distribution of the adaptation and resilience projects does not reflect the risk level. A third of the local development plans examined propose actions that are inconsistent with the main hydroclimatic threats.
Maurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci; Sarah Braccio. Multihazard Risk Assessment for Planning with Climate in the Dosso Region, Niger. Climate 2018, 6, 67 .
AMA StyleMaurizio Tiepolo, Maurizio Bacci, Sarah Braccio. Multihazard Risk Assessment for Planning with Climate in the Dosso Region, Niger. Climate. 2018; 6 (3):67.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci; Sarah Braccio. 2018. "Multihazard Risk Assessment for Planning with Climate in the Dosso Region, Niger." Climate 6, no. 3: 67.
This chapter contributes to a global reflection on climate change and its implications for agricultural production. We present a case study aiming to quantify trends of climate risks for rice crop in Casamance (Senegal). We evaluate the recurrence of drought and extreme rainfall conditions in the most sensitive phases of plant life and identify trends in the rainy season distribution. To overcome the low quality of climate records from gauge stations in the Region we use the rainfall estimation Climate Hazards group with InfraRed Precipitation Stations (CHIRPS), a daily gridded dataset with 0.05′ resolution over the period 1981–2013. The analysis is centered on the critical aspects that determine rice final yield such as: availability of water in the (i) plant germination and (ii) flowering phases, and (iii) the dynamics of the rainy season. We use the return period method to identify extreme events probability in rice crop’s sensitive phases. Lastly, we identify the dynamics of the three parameters of the growing season: start, end and length by highlighting significant changes recorded in the study period (1981–2010). These outputs aim to support strategic agronomic choices in the Region.
Maurizio Bacci. Characterization of Climate Risks for Rice Crop in Casamance, Senegal. Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics 2017, 57 -72.
AMA StyleMaurizio Bacci. Characterization of Climate Risks for Rice Crop in Casamance, Senegal. Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics. 2017; ():57-72.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Bacci. 2017. "Characterization of Climate Risks for Rice Crop in Casamance, Senegal." Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics , no. : 57-72.
Niger is one of the countries most vulnerable to climatic risks. An adaptation to meet these threats is urgent and supported by politicians and decision makers, as stressed in the Programme d’Action National pour l’Adaptation aux changements climatiques (PANA) of Niger. The main aim of this paper is to provide an assessment of the current and future scenario of natural hazards in Tillaberi Region (Niger). The mapping of hazard changes in the study area is done comparing the probability of recurrence of severe meteorological conditions for droughts and floods between present and future climate using several projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result is a hazard characterization highlighting the need for urgent interventions. The natural hazard information with exposure and vulnerability assessment indicators can help decision makers in prioritizing interventions in the Tillabéri Region using an objective approach. This methodology has been proposed within the framework of the ANADIA Project that aims to support disaster prevention activities, from national to local scale, helping institutions in the design and implementation of disaster risk management strategies.
Maurizio Bacci; Moussa Mouhaïmouni. Hazard Events Characterization in Tillaberi Region, Niger: Present and Future Projections. Green Energy and Technology 2017, 41 -56.
AMA StyleMaurizio Bacci, Moussa Mouhaïmouni. Hazard Events Characterization in Tillaberi Region, Niger: Present and Future Projections. Green Energy and Technology. 2017; ():41-56.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Bacci; Moussa Mouhaïmouni. 2017. "Hazard Events Characterization in Tillaberi Region, Niger: Present and Future Projections." Green Energy and Technology , no. : 41-56.
In Least Developed tropical Countries, the vulnerability assessment to climate change (CC) at local scale follows an indicator-based approach and uses information gathered mainly through household surveys or focus groups. Conceived in this way, the vulnerability assessment is rarely repeatable in time, cannot be compared with those carried out in other contexts and usually has low spatial coverage. The growing availability of open data at municipal level, routinely collected, now allows us to switch to vulnerability tracking (continuous, low cost, consistent with global monitoring systems). The aim of this chapter is to propose and verify the applicability of a VICC-Vulnerability Index to Climate Change on a municipal scale for Haiti. The chapter identifies open data on national, departmental and municipal scale, selects the information on a municipal scale on the basis of quality, identifies the indicators, evaluates the robustness of the index and measures it. The index consists of 10 indicators created using information relating to monthly precipitations, population density, flood prone areas, crop deficit, farmers for self-consumption, rural accessibility, local plans for CC adaptation, irrigated agriculture and cholera incidence. This information is gathered for the 125 mainly rural municipalities of Haiti. The description and discussion of the results is followed by suggestions to improve the index aimed at donors, local authorities and users.
Maurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci. Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Rural Haiti Using Open Data. Green Energy and Technology 2017, 103 -131.
AMA StyleMaurizio Tiepolo, Maurizio Bacci. Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Rural Haiti Using Open Data. Green Energy and Technology. 2017; ():103-131.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Tiepolo; Maurizio Bacci. 2017. "Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Rural Haiti Using Open Data." Green Energy and Technology , no. : 103-131.
Marco Manzelli; Edoardo Fiorillo; Maurizio Bacci; Vieri Tarchiani. Lowland rice production in southern Senegal (Middle Casamance): challenges and prospects for sustaining their restoration and development. Cahiers Agricultures 2015, 24, 301 -312.
AMA StyleMarco Manzelli, Edoardo Fiorillo, Maurizio Bacci, Vieri Tarchiani. Lowland rice production in southern Senegal (Middle Casamance): challenges and prospects for sustaining their restoration and development. Cahiers Agricultures. 2015; 24 (5):301-312.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarco Manzelli; Edoardo Fiorillo; Maurizio Bacci; Vieri Tarchiani. 2015. "Lowland rice production in southern Senegal (Middle Casamance): challenges and prospects for sustaining their restoration and development." Cahiers Agricultures 24, no. 5: 301-312.
As stated in the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is affecting temperatures, sea levels, and storm frequencies in the entire world. While changes in average conditions can have serious consequences by themselves, the main impacts of climate change will be felt through weather extremes and the consequent risk of natural disasters. This chapter provides an overall picture of the climate conditions in the Maputo region, through the analysis of climatic data from the Maputo-Mavalane station (1960–2006). The current climate dynamics are analyzed and future climate scenarios are briefly considered, based on the literature of Mozambique. The study is especially focused on the aspects that most influence the management of a large city like Maputo. As such, attention is centered on the analysis of intense phenomena. The aim of this work is to contribute to local administrators’ understanding of climatic phenomena and their processes.
Maurizio Bacci. Climate Change Hazard Identification in the Maputo Area. Springer Climate 2014, 143 -154.
AMA StyleMaurizio Bacci. Climate Change Hazard Identification in the Maputo Area. Springer Climate. 2014; ():143-154.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Bacci. 2014. "Climate Change Hazard Identification in the Maputo Area." Springer Climate , no. : 143-154.
Lorenzo Genesio; Maurizio Bacci; Christian Baron; B. Diarra; A. Di Vecchia; A. Alhassane; I. Hassane; M. Ndiaye; N. Philippon; Vieri Tarchiani; S. Traoré. Early warning systems for food security in West Africa: evolution, achievements and challenges. Atmospheric Science Letters 2011, 12, 142 -148.
AMA StyleLorenzo Genesio, Maurizio Bacci, Christian Baron, B. Diarra, A. Di Vecchia, A. Alhassane, I. Hassane, M. Ndiaye, N. Philippon, Vieri Tarchiani, S. Traoré. Early warning systems for food security in West Africa: evolution, achievements and challenges. Atmospheric Science Letters. 2011; 12 (1):142-148.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLorenzo Genesio; Maurizio Bacci; Christian Baron; B. Diarra; A. Di Vecchia; A. Alhassane; I. Hassane; M. Ndiaye; N. Philippon; Vieri Tarchiani; S. Traoré. 2011. "Early warning systems for food security in West Africa: evolution, achievements and challenges." Atmospheric Science Letters 12, no. 1: 142-148.
In the Sahel region the unfavourable climatic conditions and the natural resources degradation are recognised to be the main constraints affecting the agricultural productivity; nevertheless more complex and less evident causes of food insecurity of population groups need to be investigated.
Maurizio Bacci; Tiziana De Filippis; Andrea Di Vecchia; Bakary Djaby; Francesca Incerti; Moussa Labo; Leandro Rocchi; Fabio Straccali; Patrizio Vignaroli. Vulnerability Assessment for Food Crisis Management in the Sahel Region. Geo-information for Disaster Management 2005, 819 -827.
AMA StyleMaurizio Bacci, Tiziana De Filippis, Andrea Di Vecchia, Bakary Djaby, Francesca Incerti, Moussa Labo, Leandro Rocchi, Fabio Straccali, Patrizio Vignaroli. Vulnerability Assessment for Food Crisis Management in the Sahel Region. Geo-information for Disaster Management. 2005; ():819-827.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaurizio Bacci; Tiziana De Filippis; Andrea Di Vecchia; Bakary Djaby; Francesca Incerti; Moussa Labo; Leandro Rocchi; Fabio Straccali; Patrizio Vignaroli. 2005. "Vulnerability Assessment for Food Crisis Management in the Sahel Region." Geo-information for Disaster Management , no. : 819-827.