Air pollution, in particular high concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 1 µm in diameter (PM₁), continues to be a major health problem, and meteorology is known to substantially influence atmospheric PM concentrations. However, the scientific understanding of the ways in which complex interactions of meteorological factors lead to high-pollution episodes is inconclusive. In this study, a novel, data-driven approach based on empirical relationships is used to characterize and better understand the meteorology-driven component of PM₁ variability. A tree-based machine learning model is set up to reproduce concentrations of speciated PM₁ at a suburban site southwest of Paris, France, using meteorological variables as input features. The model is able to capture the majority of occurring variance of mean afternoon total PM₁ concentrations (coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.58), with model performance depending on the individual PM₁ species predicted. Based on the models, an isolation and quantification of individual, season-specific meteorological influences for process understanding at the measurement site is achieved using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression values. Model results suggest that winter pollution episodes are often driven by a combination of shallow mixed layer heights (MLHs), low temperatures, low wind speeds, or inflow from northeastern wind directions. Contributions of MLHs to the winter pollution episodes are quantified to be on average ∼5 µg/m³ for MLHs below <500 m a.g.l. Temperatures below freezing initiate formation processes and increase local emissions related to residential heating, amounting to a contribution to predicted PM₁ concentrations of as much as ∼9 µg/m³. Northeasterly winds are found to contribute ∼5 µg/m³ to predicted PM₁ concentrations (combined effects of u- and v-wind components), by advecting particles from source regions, e.g. central Europe or the Paris region. Meteorological drivers of unusually high PM₁ concentrations in summer are temperatures above ∼25 ^∘C (contributions of up to ∼2.5 µg/m³), dry spells of several days (maximum contributions of ∼1.5 µg/m³), and wind speeds below ∼2 m/s (maximum contributions of ∼3 µg/m³), which cause a lack of dispersion. High-resolution case studies are conducted showing a large variability of processes that can lead to high-pollution episodes. The identification of these meteorological conditions that increase air pollution could help policy makers to adapt policy measures, issue warnings to the public, or assess the effectiveness of air pollution measures.

Air pollution can endanger human health, especially in urban areas. Assessment of air quality primarily relies on ground-based measurements, but these provide only limited information on the spatial distribution of pollutants. In recent years, satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) has been used to approximate particulate matter (PM) with varying success. In this study, the relationship between hourly mean concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less (PM10) and instantaneous AOD measurements is investigated for Berlin, Germany, for 2001–2015. It is found that the relationship between AOD and PM10 is rarely linear and strongly influenced by ambient relative humidity (RH), boundary layer height (BLH), wind direction and wind speed. Generally, when a moderately dry atmosphere (30% < RH ≤ 50%) coincides with a medium BLH (600–1200 m), AOD and PM10 are in the same range on a semi-quantitative scale. AOD increases with ambient RH, leading to an overestimation of the dry particle concentration near ground. However, this effect can be compensated if a low boundary layer (<600 m) is present, which in turn significantly increases PM10, eventually leading to satellite AOD and PM10 measurements of similar magnitude. Insights of this study potentially influence future efforts to estimate near-ground PM concentrations based on satellite AOD.

The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10 m (PM10) by combining satellite‐borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land‐use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44 g/m ) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations >35 g/m occur when BLH is below 500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40 g/m of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.

Clouds are one of the major uncertainties of the climate system. The study of cloud processes requires information on cloud physical properties, in particular liquid water path (LWP). This parameter is commonly retrieved from satellite data using look-up table approaches. However, existing LWP retrievals come with uncertainties related to assumptions inherent in physical retrievals. Here, we present a new retrieval technique for cloud LWP based on a statistical machine learning model. The approach utilizes spectral information from geostationary satellite channels of Meteosat Spinning-Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), as well as satellite viewing geometry. As ground truth, data from CloudNet stations were used to train the model. We found that LWP predicted by the machine-learning model agrees substantially better with CloudNet observations than a current physics-based product, the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF) CLoud property dAtAset using SEVIRI, edition 2 (CLAAS-2), highlighting the potential of such approaches for future retrieval developments.

Air pollution, in particular high concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 1 µm in diameter (PM1), continues to be a major health problem, and meteorology is known to substantially contribute to atmospheric PM concentrations. However, the scientific understanding of the complex mechanisms leading to high pollution episodes is inconclusive, as the effects of meteorological variables are not easy to separate and quantify. In this study, a novel, data-driven approach based on empirical relationships is used to characterise the role of meteorology on atmospheric concentrations of PM1. A tree-based machine learning model is set up to reproduce concentrations of speciated PM1 at a suburban site southwest of Paris, France, using meteorological variables as input features. The contributions of each meteorological feature to modeled PM1 concentrations are quantified using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression values. Meteorological contributions to PM1 concentrations are analysed in selected high-resolution case studies, contrasting season-specific processes. Model results suggest that winter pollution episodes are often driven by a combination of shallow mixed layer heights (MLH), low temperatures, low wind speeds or inflow from northeastern wind directions. Contributions of MLHs to the winter pollution episodes are quantified to be on average ~ 5 µg/m³ for MLHs below 500 m agl. Temperatures below freezing initiate formation processes and increase local emissions related to residential heating, amounting to a contribution of as much as ~ 9 µg/m³. Northeasterly winds are found to contribute ~ 5 µg/m³ to total PM1 concentrations (combined effects of u- and v-wind components), by advecting particles from source regions, e.g. central Europe or the Paris region. However, in calm conditions (i.e. wind speeds

This contribution presents a technique for the machine-learning-based retrieval of cloud liquid water path. Cloud effects are among the major uncertainties in climate models for estimating and predicting the Earth’s energy budget. The study of cloud processes requires information on cloud physical properties, such as the liquid water path (LWP), which is commonly retrieved from satellite sensors using look-up table approaches. However, the accuracy of LWP varies temporally and spatially, also due to assumptions inherent in any physical retrieval. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of LWP and analyze quantitatively the accuracy and its errors. To this end, a statistical LWP retrieval was developed using spectral information from geostationary satellite channels (Meteosat Spinning-Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI), and satellite viewing geometry. The machine-learning method chosen is gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRTs), which is an ensemble of decision trees but more effective than traditional tree-based models. This study reports on first results, as well as a comparison between the GBRT-derived LWP estimates and those from the SEVIRI-based products of the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM-SAF, CLAAS-A2), as well as MODIS products. We use case studies for individual in-situ measurement sites in Europe under varying meteorological conditions to determine the factors influencing LWP retrieval quality.