Air pollution, in particular high concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 1 µm in diameter (PM₁), continues to be a major health problem, and meteorology is known to substantially influence atmospheric PM concentrations. However, the scientific understanding of the ways in which complex interactions of meteorological factors lead to high-pollution episodes is inconclusive. In this study, a novel, data-driven approach based on empirical relationships is used to characterize and better understand the meteorology-driven component of PM₁ variability. A tree-based machine learning model is set up to reproduce concentrations of speciated PM₁ at a suburban site southwest of Paris, France, using meteorological variables as input features. The model is able to capture the majority of occurring variance of mean afternoon total PM₁ concentrations (coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.58), with model performance depending on the individual PM₁ species predicted. Based on the models, an isolation and quantification of individual, season-specific meteorological influences for process understanding at the measurement site is achieved using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression values. Model results suggest that winter pollution episodes are often driven by a combination of shallow mixed layer heights (MLHs), low temperatures, low wind speeds, or inflow from northeastern wind directions. Contributions of MLHs to the winter pollution episodes are quantified to be on average ∼5 µg/m³ for MLHs below <500 m a.g.l. Temperatures below freezing initiate formation processes and increase local emissions related to residential heating, amounting to a contribution to predicted PM₁ concentrations of as much as ∼9 µg/m³. Northeasterly winds are found to contribute ∼5 µg/m³ to predicted PM₁ concentrations (combined effects of u- and v-wind components), by advecting particles from source regions, e.g. central Europe or the Paris region. Meteorological drivers of unusually high PM₁ concentrations in summer are temperatures above ∼25 ^∘C (contributions of up to ∼2.5 µg/m³), dry spells of several days (maximum contributions of ∼1.5 µg/m³), and wind speeds below ∼2 m/s (maximum contributions of ∼3 µg/m³), which cause a lack of dispersion. High-resolution case studies are conducted showing a large variability of processes that can lead to high-pollution episodes. The identification of these meteorological conditions that increase air pollution could help policy makers to adapt policy measures, issue warnings to the public, or assess the effectiveness of air pollution measures.

Understanding the processes that determine low-cloud properties and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) is crucial for the estimation of their radiative effects. However, the covariation of meteorology and aerosols complicates the determination of cloud-relevant influences and the quantification of the aerosol–cloud relation. This study identifies and analyzes sensitivities of cloud fraction and cloud droplet effective radius to their meteorological and aerosol environment in the atmospherically stable southeast Atlantic during the biomass-burning season based on an 8-day-averaged data set. The effect of geophysical parameters on clouds is investigated based on a machine learning technique, gradient boosting regression trees (GBRTs), using a combination of satellite and reanalysis data as well as trajectory modeling of air-mass origins. A comprehensive, multivariate analysis of important drivers of cloud occurrence and properties is performed and evaluated. The statistical model reveals marked subregional differences of relevant drivers and processes determining low clouds in the southeast Atlantic. Cloud fraction is sensitive to changes of lower tropospheric stability in the oceanic, southwestern subregion, while in the northeastern subregion it is governed mostly by surface winds. In the pristine, oceanic subregion large-scale dynamics and aerosols seem to be more important for changes of cloud droplet effective radius than in the polluted, near-shore subregion, where free tropospheric temperature is more relevant. This study suggests the necessity to consider distinct ACI regimes in cloud studies in the southeast Atlantic.

The role of aerosols, clouds and their interactions with radiation remain among the largest unknowns in the climate system. Even though the processes involved are complex, aerosol–cloud interactions are often analyzed by means of bivariate relationships. In this study, 15 years (2001–2015) of monthly satellite-retrieved near-global aerosol products are combined with reanalysis data of various meteorological parameters to predict satellite-derived marine liquid-water cloud occurrence and properties by means of region-specific artificial neural networks. The statistical models used are shown to be capable of predicting clouds, especially in regions of high cloud variability. On this monthly scale, lower-tropospheric stability is shown to be the main determinant of cloud fraction and droplet size, especially in stratocumulus regions, while boundary layer height controls the liquid-water amount and thus the optical thickness of clouds. While aerosols show the expected impact on clouds, at this scale they are less relevant than some meteorological factors. Global patterns of the derived sensitivities point to regional characteristics of aerosol and cloud processes.

Fog is a defining characteristic of the climate of the Namib Desert, and its water and nutrient input are important for local ecosystems. In part due to sparse observation data, the local mechanisms that lead to fog occurrence in the Namib are not yet fully understood, and to date, potential synoptic-scale controls have not been investigated. In this study, a recently established 14-year data set of satellite observations of fog and low clouds in the central Namib is analyzed in conjunction with reanalysis data in order to identify synoptic-scale patterns associated with fog and low-cloud variability in the central Namib during two seasons with different spatial fog occurrence patterns. It is found that during both seasons, mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa differ markedly between fog/low-cloud and clear days, with patterns indicating the presence of synoptic-scale disturbances on fog and low-cloud days. These regularly occurring disturbances increase the probability of fog and low-cloud occurrence in the central Namib in two main ways: (1) an anomalously dry free troposphere in the coastal region of the Namib leads to stronger longwave cooling of the marine boundary layer, increasing low-cloud cover, especially over the ocean where the anomaly is strongest; (2) local wind systems are modulated, leading to an onshore anomaly of marine boundary-layer air masses. This is consistent with air mass back trajectories and a principal component analysis of spatial wind patterns that point to advected marine boundary-layer air masses on fog and low-cloud days, whereas subsiding continental air masses dominate on clear days. Large-scale free-tropospheric moisture transport into southern Africa seems to be a key factor modulating the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses during April, May, and June, as the associated increase in greenhouse gas warming and thus surface heating are observed to contribute to a continental heat low anomaly. A statistical model is trained to discriminate between fog/low-cloud and clear days based on information on large-scale dynamics. The model accurately predicts fog and low-cloud days, illustrating the importance of large-scale pressure modulation and advective processes. It can be concluded that regional fog in the Namib is predominantly of an advective nature and that fog and low-cloud cover is effectively maintained by increased cloud-top radiative cooling. Seasonally different manifestations of synoptic-scale disturbances act to modify its day-to-day variability and the balance of mechanisms leading to its formation and maintenance. The results are the basis for a new conceptual model of the synoptic-scale mechanisms that control fog and low-cloud variability in the Namib Desert and will guide future studies of coastal fog regimes.

The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10 m (PM10) by combining satellite‐borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land‐use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44 g/m ) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations >35 g/m occur when BLH is below 500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40 g/m of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.