Land requirements and impacts from future development are a significant concern throughout the world. In Florida (USA), the state’s population increased from 18.8 M to 21.5 M between 2010 and 2020, and is projected to reach 26.6 M by 2040. To accommodate these new residents, 801 km² of wetlands were converted to developed uses between 1996 and 2016. These conversions present a significant threat to Florida’s unique ecosystems and highlight the need to prioritize conservation and water resource protection, both for the natural and human services that wetland and upland landscapes provide. To better understand the relationship between future development and water resources, we used future development and event mean concentration (EMC) models for Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in Florida (USA) to assess impacts from development patterns on water quality/runoff and water resource protection priorities. This study found that if future development densities increased by 30%, reductions of 7713 acres for developed land, 17,768 acre feet of stormwater volume, ~88k lb/yr total nitrogen, and ~15k lb/yr total phosphorus could be achieved. It also found that urban infill, redevelopment, and stormwater management are essential and complementary tools to broader growth management strategies for reducing sprawl while also addressing urban stormwater impacts.

Rapid urban expansion across southwestern Florida has led to extensive habitat fragmentation and degradation, presenting significant ecological challenges for the persistence of multiple species, including the Big Cypress fox squirrel (Sciurus niger avicennia; BCFS), a state threatened and imperiled subspecies endemic to the Big Cypress Basin. This study uses high-resolution ecological modeling, Omniscape, to assess the functional connectivity of BCFS habitat within the urbanizing landscape of Fort Myers, Florida, and a green infrastructure (GI) transect-based approach to identify strategies for improving habitat and connectivity within the urban landscape. Results demonstrate that BCFS movement is disproportionately represented in high-density urban zones, with priority bottleneck patterns emerging in surrounding lower-density, transitional land use areas such as suburban neighborhoods and golf courses. By combining spatial modeling and applied GI design, this study offers a replicable framework for embedding species conservation into local and regional planning processes. Given the model-based and species-specific scope of this study, future research should focus on empirical validation and extending this framework across multiple species and scales. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of multiscalar, landscape-sensitive planning strategies to mitigate anthropogenic fragmentation, enhance ecological resilience, and support the long-term persistence of native species in rapidly developing regions.

Population growth and land use change often have significant environmental impacts, affecting biodiversity, water supply, agricultural production, and other resources. Future scenario models can provide a better understanding of these changes, helping planners and the public understand the consequences of choices regarding development density, land use, and conservation. This study presents a model that has been used to identify alternative future scenarios for Florida considering future population growth and land use. It includes two scenarios: a “Sprawl” scenario reflecting a continuation of current development patterns and a “Conservation” scenario with higher densities, redevelopment, and more land protection. The study incorporates sea level rise scenarios for both 2040 and 2070. Results show that the Sprawl scenario could lead to 3.5 million acres of new developed land and 1.8 million acres of lost agricultural land by 2070 in Florida. In contrast, the Conservation scenario for 2070 results in 1.3 million fewer acres of developed land and 5 million more acres of protected natural land, showing that it is possible to accommodate future population growth while reducing impacts to agricultural and conservation priorities in Florida. Although this is by no means a “prediction” of future Florida, it has been useful as a tool for evaluating potential future land use scenarios and is a model that may be more broadly applied by other locations and users.

Determining appropriate spatio-temporal scales for monitoring migratory shorebirds is challenging. Effective surveys must detect population trends without excessive or insufficient sampling, yet many programs lack formal evaluations of survey effectiveness. Using data from 2012 to 2019 on Louisiana’s barrier islands (Whiskey, west Raccoon, east Raccoon, and Trinity), we assessed how spatial and temporal scales influence population trend inference for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). Point count data were aggregated to grid sizes from 50 to 200 m and analyzed using Bayesian dynamic occupancy models. We found occupancy and colonization estimates varied by spatial resolution, with space–time autocorrelation common across scales. Smaller islands (east and west Raccoon) yielded higher trend detection power due to better detectability, while larger islands (Trinity and Whiskey) showed lower power. Detectability, more than sampling frequency, drove trend inference. Models incorporating spatial autocorrelation outperformed traditional Frequentist approaches but showed poorer fit at coarser scales. These findings underscore how matching analytical scale to ecological processes and selecting appropriate models can influence predictions. Power analysis revealed that increasing survey frequency may improve inference, especially in low-detectability areas. Overall, our study highlights how careful scale selection, model diagnostics, and survey design can enhance monitoring efficiency and support long-term conservation of migratory shorebirds.