Purpose: This study analyzes the variability of sediment loads under variant climate change and land use scenarios in a Carpathian catchment with a dam reservoir. The areas with the highest share of sediment loads are tracked to establish possible indications for future catchment management plans. Materials and methods: Analyses were performed for the Raba River catchment (Poland, Carpathian Mountains) with use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT. The RCP 4.5 climate forecast predictions (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), downscaled for the area of Poland, and land use predictions from the DYNA-Clue model for the Carpathian area, were taken into consideration. A total of seven scenarios were created, accounting for precipitation (P1 and P2), temperature (T1 and T2), land use (LU) changes, and combined effects (COMB1 and COMB2). Results and discussion: The average load delivered to the dam reservoir was estimated as 2.43 Gg y⁻¹, and its seasonal/yearly variability was followed by local meteorological phenomena. Among the tested factors, precipitation change, in terms of total amount and intensity, exerted the most impact on sediment loads causing their increase. Temperature and land use changes resulted in a slight decrease. Combined scenarios implied that changes of the catchment area use, such as increase of forest cover, can noticeably reduce sediment loads delivered into a dam reservoir. Conclusions: The performed simulations revealed the importance of incorporating variant scenarios for catchment management plans, development of land use mitigation measures (erosion), and operational procedures for the dam reservoir. Particular attention should be paid to warmer winters with heavy rainfalls and temperatures above zero, which together with a lack of plant vegetation result in elevated annual sediment loads reaching the dam reservoir. Further changes must be mitigated by anti-erosion investments.

Soil runoff and sediment transport are considered as an important vector for particle-bound contaminant transfer from source to receiving waters. Under changing climate conditions and rapid basin development, identification of sediment origins is critical for planning further action to reduce erosion effects, and further pollution to surface waters. The goal of this study was to distinguish sediment sources in a Carpathian basin (Wolnica River, southern Poland) and to perform source-oriented contaminant load estimations. Sediment yields (SYLD) and land use specific sediment yields (LUSY) were modeled with the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge-Nutrients-Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Sorting of sediment sources was performed by the fingerprinting method using variability of the geochemical composition of soils (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Fe, Hg, total N and P, Σ16 PAHs, and 137Cs) of four land use (LU) types: arable lands (A), grasslands (G), residential areas (R), and forests (F). Statistical analysis revealed six metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Hg) as fingerprint properties providing the best source discrimination in this basin. The contribution of particular land use origin assessed with the use of the mixing model varied in the range of 20-30%. Finally, estimation of land use specific contaminant loads in suspended sediments was performed as a result of a modeling and sediment fingerprinting combination. The final estimates revealed yearly LUSY values varying between 716 t/y for A, 12 t/y for F, and metal loads from 31 kg/y for Zn to values below 100 g/y for Cd and Hg. Long-term predictions (2046-2055) of the metal loads revealed an increase by 75% under the combined RCP 8.5 climate change and land use scenarios. These findings are of great value for land management in the Carpathian basins, especially with regards to the predicted increase of forest cover which significantly alters contaminant signals conveyed through the system.

In order to complete a thorough and systematic assessment of water quality, it is useful to measure the absorption capacity of a river. Absorption capacity is understood as a pollution load introduced into river water that will not cause permanent and irreversible changes in the aquatic ecosystem and will not cause a change in the classification of water quality in the river profile. In order to implement the method, the Macromodel DNS/SWAT basin for the Middle Warta pilot (central Poland) was used to simulate nutrient loads. This enabled detailed analysis of water quality in each water body and the assessment of the size of the absorption capacity parameter, which allows the determination of how much pollution can be added to the river without compromising its quality class. Positive values of the calculated absorption capacity parameter mean that it is assumed that the ecosystem is adjusted in such a way that it can eliminate pollution loads through a number of self-purification processes. Negative values indicate that the load limit has been exceeded, and too much pollution has been introduced into the ecosystem for it to be able to deal with through the processes of self-purification. Absorption capacity thus enables the connection of environmental standards of water quality and water quality management plans in order to meet these standards.

The issue of whether land use changes will balance out sediment yields induced by climate predictions was assessed for a Carpathian basin (Raba River, Poland). This discussion was based on the Macromodel DNS (Discharge–Nutrient–Sea)/SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) results for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and LU predictions. To track sediment yield responses on the sub-basin level the studied area was divided into 36 units. The response of individual sub-basins to climate scenarios created a mosaic of negative and positive sediment yield changes in comparison to the baseline scenario. Then, overlapped forest and agricultural areas change indicated those sub-basins where sediment yields could be balanced out or not. The model revealed that sediment yields could be altered even by 49% in the selected upper sub-basins during the spring-summer months, while for the lower sub-basins the predicted changes will be less effective (3% on average). Moreover, the winter period, which needs to be re-defined due to an exceptional occurrence of frost and snow cover protecting soils against erosion, will significantly alter the soil particle transfer among the seasons. Finally, it has been shown that modeling of sediment transport, based on averaged meteorological values and LU changes, can lead to significant errors.

Despite concerted efforts through the European territory, the problems of nitrogen pollution released from agricultural sources have not been resolved yet. Therefore, infringement cases are still open against a few Member States, including Poland, based on fulfilment problems of commitments regarding the Nitrate Directive. As a result of the litigation process, Poland has completely changed its approach to nitrate vulnerable zones. Instead of just selected areas, the measured actions will be implemented throughout the whole Polish territory. Additionally, further restrictions concerning the fertilizer use calendar will be introduced in areas indicated as extremely cold or hot, based on the average temperature distribution (poles of cold, and heat). Such a change will be of key importance to farmers, whose protests are already audible throughout the country, and can be expected to intensify. To assess the impact of the introduced modifications a modelling approach has been adopted. The use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT allowed for the development of baseline and variant scenarios incorporating details of stipulated changes in the fertilizer use for a pilot catchment (Słupia River). The results clearly indicate that the new restriction will have a substantial effect on the aquatic environment by altering the amount of released total nitrogen.