California wildfires have grown increasingly frequent and intense over recent decades, raising serious public health concerns. In response, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) 2022 Scoping Plan outlines land management strategies to reduce wildfire risk and associated emissions under various climate change scenarios. This study evaluates the health benefits of CARB's official mitigation pathway, the S3 scenario, compared to a business‐as‐usual approach, using three global climate models (GCMs) and three future time slices. We apply the GEOS‐Chem model to estimate fire‐induced PM 2.5 concentrations and use the U.S. EPA's BenMAP‐CE tool, along with a wildfire‐specific chronic mortality dose‐response function, to assess associated morbidity and mortality. Results suggest that S3 can significantly reduce fire‐related PM 2.5 exposure, particularly in northern and central California where concentrations are typically highest—and where S3 treatments are most effective. In 2035 under the second generation Canadian Earth System Model GCM, for instance, S3 is associated with 1,927 fewer premature deaths and substantial reductions in asthma‐ and respiratory‐related emergency room visits. However, health benefits vary by GCM and year, underscoring the influence of meteorological conditions on fire activity and health outcomes. These findings point to the importance of strategically timed and located land management actions and integrating climate variability into future mitigation planning.
Understanding the trends and drivers of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is vital to making effective climate mitigation strategies and benefiting human health. In this study, we investigate carbon dioxide (CO2) trends in the top three emitting states in the U.S. (i.e., Texas, California, and Florida) using column-averaged CO2 concentrations (XCO2) from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) from 2010 to 2022. Annual XCO2 enhancements are derived by removing regional background values (XCO2, enhancement), and their interannual changes (ΔXCO2, enhancement) are analyzed against key influencing factors, including population, gross domestic product (GDP), nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption, and normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI). Overall, interannual changes in socioeconomic factors, particularly GDP and energy consumption, are more strongly correlated with ΔXCO2, enhancement in Florida. In contrast, NDVI and state-specific environmental policies appear to play a more influential role in shaping XCO2 trends in California and Texas. These differences underscore the importance of regionally tailored approaches to emissions monitoring and mitigation. Although renewable energy use is increasing, CO2 trends remain primarily influenced by nonrenewable sources, limiting progress toward atmospheric CO2 reduction.