We found that the most suitable flooding disturbance model for regenerating Populus euphratica forest was two to three times per year with a duration of 15–20 days and an intensity of 25–30 m³/s. The flooding should take place during the seed emergence to young tree growth stages and should be based on flooding experiments and data from vegetation quadrats and ecological water conveyance. Furthermore, we found that tree-ring width index for P. euphratica declined as the groundwater depth increased and ascertained that the minimum groundwater depths for young trees, near-mature trees, mature trees and over-mature trees were 4.0 m, 5.0–5.4 m, 6.9 m and 7.8 m, respectively. These were derived from a quantitative relationship model between groundwater depth and tree-ring width index. The range for ecological water conveyance volume was 311–320 million m³ in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. This study not only provides a technical basis for sustainable ecological water conveyance in the Tarim River Basin, but also offers a theoretical guide and scientific information that could be used in similar areas to regenerate and protect Populus euphratica around the world.