We found that the most suitable flooding disturbance model for regenerating Populus euphratica forest was two to three times per year with a duration of 15–20 days and an intensity of 25–30 m³/s. The flooding should take place during the seed emergence to young tree growth stages and should be based on flooding experiments and data from vegetation quadrats and ecological water conveyance. Furthermore, we found that tree-ring width index for P. euphratica declined as the groundwater depth increased and ascertained that the minimum groundwater depths for young trees, near-mature trees, mature trees and over-mature trees were 4.0 m, 5.0–5.4 m, 6.9 m and 7.8 m, respectively. These were derived from a quantitative relationship model between groundwater depth and tree-ring width index. The range for ecological water conveyance volume was 311–320 million m³ in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. This study not only provides a technical basis for sustainable ecological water conveyance in the Tarim River Basin, but also offers a theoretical guide and scientific information that could be used in similar areas to regenerate and protect Populus euphratica around the world.

Ecological water conveyance is an important way to promote the restoration of degraded ecosystems in arid watersheds. However, there are few previous research results on how to quantitatively evaluate the effect of ecological water conveyance on ecological restoration. In this regard, this paper selects the Tarim River Basin as a typical area, analyzing the changes of desert riparian vegetation and hydrological elements, constructing a watershed ecological environment quality evaluation system, and comprehensively evaluating the ecological water conveyance effect of the damaged desert forest ecosystem. The conclusion showed that the proportion of the pixel area with an upward trend of Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) from 2000 to 2021 is as high as 84.3%. The plant diversity index in the ecological water conveyance area showed the characteristics of first obvious increase and then stable. The main body of groundwater depth showed an upward trend, and the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) showed a downward trend of pixel area accounting for 57.0%, which indicated that ecological water conveyance had played a positive role in groundwater recharge and ecological restoration along the Tarim River. The ecological environment quality of the river basin showed a trend of transition from low-grade to high-grade, and the area with excellent ecological quality had increased from 4,635.50 km² in 2000 to 12,335.0 km² in 2021. The above research provides important scientific reference for the protection and restoration of vegetation degradation in arid watersheds.