Agriculture is the primary sector sustaining the Indonesian economy. However, appropriate policies are also required to support the service sector. Therefore, this study aims to analyze two central policies: the impact of trade openness and the role of the service sector on agriculture and agro-industry in Indonesia. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 2016 input–output tables cover 141 regions and 65 sectors based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Version 10 database. The results show that trade openness in the services sector significantly improves the performance and quality of service provision. The improved performance of the services sector will, in turn, encourage increased production in the agricultural and agro-industrial sectors, which rely heavily on service inputs in the production process. This suggests that trade openness in the services sector is important to sustain the performance of the agricultural sector.
31 December 2023 in Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
CARICOM is an area that has trade potential to be explored by Indonesia. However, for Indonesia, this region has various challenges to explore considering that the countries that are members of it are non-traditional countries. For this reason, this study aims to analyze the competitiveness, competitor countries and determinants of exports of Indonesia's superior products to the CARICOM region. The analysis methods used are market share, RCA, EPD, X-Model and panel data regression. The results showed that ten commodities identified as Indonesia's leading products in the CARICOM region faced lost opportunity market positions on average and CARICOM countries were included in the category as potential market developments. The United States, European Union, Brazil, China, South Korea, Japan, Dominica Republic, Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago and Singapore were identified as Indonesia's competitors in CARICOM. In terms of export determinants, real GDP and investment positive and significant effect on the export of Indonesia's superior products to CARICOM. Meanwhile, inflation and the real exchange rate together have a significant and negative effect in contrast to the economic distance which has a negative but insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesia's exports to the CARICOM region.
The Indonesian manufacturing sector still faces various problems in the global market consisting of increasingly high product competition and relatively low added value. Therefore, this study aims to identify the competitiveness and influence of the level of trade openness on the performance of Indonesian manufacturing exports using the method of analyzing the degree of trade openness, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) which is enhanced by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) method, Trade Balance Index (TBI) and panel data regression. The results of the analysis found that the structure of Indonesian manufacturing exports tends to focus on low or medium technology products, while high-tech products that have greater added value are still dominated by imports. Viewed from the side of the degree of openness, it was found that the average degree of trade openness was lower than other ASEAN countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Low trade openness has the potential to open up global market access which ultimately limits Indonesia's opportunities to expand its market share. Meanwhile, the analysis of the results of panel data regression shows that the variables of the degree of trade openness, GDP per capita of each trading partner country, Indonesia's GDP per capita, the real exchange rate and competitiveness have a positive and significant effect on the export performance of the Indonesian manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the population of partner countries has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's manufacturing sector exports.
31 July 2025 in Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Indonesia’s low ranking as an exporter to Sri Lanka indicates the need for a strategy that is more focused on improving the competitiveness of commodities, one of which is through the utilization of opportunities currently being initiated via bilateral trade cooperation schemes. This study aims to identify, map, and measure the export performance of request-offer commodities under the bilateral trade cooperation framework between Indonesia and Sri Lanka (PTA). The analytical methods used include export market share, the RCA index, the X-Model, EPD, the Frequency Index, and the Coverage Ratio of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). The results show that the export performance of the 20 initially proposed “request” commodities shifted from a “falling star” (55%) and “retreat” (45%) position to a “falling star” (5%) and “retreat” (95%) position from 2018 to 2022. From the perspective of the X-Model analysis, the market development performance of these requested commodities—which was 55% in the “potential market development” category and 45% in the “less potential market development” category—shifted to 100% in the “less potential market development” category from 2018 to 2022. The results of the analysis using the FR and CR approaches show that, collectively, 100 percent of Indonesia’s sixteen requested commodities are still subject to at least one NTM barrier imposed by Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, commodities originating from Indonesia still tend to have higher competitive potential compared to products from competing countries.