Background: Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods: Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results: 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.
7 August 2020 in Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Background: Between mid‐January and early February, provinces of mainland China outside the epicentre in Hubei province were on high alert for importations and transmission of COVID‐19. Many properties of COVID‐19 infection and transmission were still not yet established.Methods: We collated and analysed data on 449 of the earliest COVID‐19 cases detected outside Hubei province to make inferences about transmission dynamics and severity of infection. We analysed 64 clusters to make inferences on serial interval and potential role of pre‐symptomatic transmission.Results: We estimated an epidemic doubling time of 5.3 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3, 6.7) and a median incubation period of 4.6 days (95% CI: 4.0, 5.2). We estimated a serial interval distribution with mean 5.7 days (95% CI: 4.7, 6.8) and standard deviation 3.5 days, and effective reproductive number was 1.98 (95% CI: 1.68, 2.35). We estimated that 32/80 (40%) of transmission events were likely to have occurred prior to symptoms onset in primary cases. Secondary cases in clusters had less severe illness on average than cluster primary cases.Conclusions: The majority of transmissions are occurring around illness onset in an infected person, and pre‐symptomatic transmission does play a role. Detection of milder infections among the secondary cases may be more reflective of true disease severity.
Reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants due to immune escape is challenging for the global response to the pandemic. We estimated the Omicron reinfection prevalence among people who had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in Shanghai, China. We conducted a telephone survey in December 2022 with those who had previously been infected with Omicron between March and May 2022. Information on their demographics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing, and vaccination history was collected. The overall and subgroup reinfection rates were estimated and compared. Among the 1981 respondents who were infected between March and May 2022, 260 had positive nucleic acid or rapid antigen tests in December 2022, with an estimated reinfection rate of 13.1% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 11.6–14.6). The reinfection rate for those who had a booster vaccination was 11.4% (95% CI: 9.2–13.7), which was significantly lower than that for those with an incomplete vaccination series (15.2%, 95% CI: 12.3–18.1) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.579; 95% CI: 0.412–0.813). Reinfection with the Omicron variant was lower among individuals with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and those who had a booster vaccination, suggesting that hybrid immunity may offer protection against reinfection with Omicron sublineages.
Background: This study aimed to estimate influenza-like illness (ILI) prevalence, influenza-related healthcare seeking behaviors, and willingness for vaccination. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study based on a random dialing telephone survey was conducted from October 2017 through March 2018 to assess influenza-like illness prevalence and vaccination willingness among different demographic groups. Results: 10,045 individuals were enrolled and completed the survey. A total of 2834 individuals (28%) self-reported that they have suffered from influenza-like illness, especially children under 15 years of age. Overall willingness for influenza vaccination in the 2018/2019 influenza season was 45% and was positively associated with higher education level, recommendation from doctors, cost-free vaccination, and vaccination campaigns with employers’ support. Hospitalization and seeking medicine from pharmacies was less frequent in urban locations. People under 15 and over 60 years of age sought medical service more frequently. Conclusions: ILI prevalence differed significantly by age and geographical location/population density. Vaccination policy for motivating key populations at highest risk to vaccinate should take into consideration the awareness-raising of vaccination benefits, barriers reduction of vaccination such as cost, and recommendation via healthcare professionals.
The Ebola virus disease spread rapidly in West Africa in 2014, leading to the loss of thousands of lives. Community engagement was one of the key strategies to interrupt Ebola transmission, and practical community level measures needed to be explored in the field and tailored to the specific context of communities. First, community-level education on Ebola virus disease (EVD) prevention was launched for the community’s social mobilizers in six districts in Sierra Leone beginning in November 2014. Then, from January to May of 2015, in three pilot communities, local trained community members were organized to engage in implementation of EVD prevention and transmission interruption measures, by involving them in alert case report, contact tracing, and social mobilization. The epidemiological indicators of transmission interruption in three study communities were evaluated. A total of 6 016 community social mobilizers from 185 wards were trained by holding 279 workshops in the six districts, and EVD message reached an estimated 631 680 residents. In three pilot communities, 72 EVD alert cases were reported, with 70.8 % of them detected by trained local community members, and 14 EVD cases were finally identified. Contact tracing detected 64.3 % of EVD cases. The median duration of community infectivity for the cases was 1 day. The secondary attack rate was 4.2 %, and no third generation of infection was triggered. No health worker was infected, and no unsafe burial and noncompliance to EVD control measures were recorded. The community-based measures were modeled to reduce 77 EVD cases, and the EVD-free goal was achieved four months earlier in study communities than whole country of Sierra Leone. The community-based strategy of social mobilization and community engagement was effective in case detection and reducing the extent of Ebola transmission in a country with weak health system. The successfully practical experience to reduce the risk of Ebola transmission in the community with poor resources would potentially be helpful for the global community to fight against the EVD and the other diseases in the future.
Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus.