Flooding along the river: Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima. Science , this issue p. 588 see also p. 552

There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

This study investigates the role of soil moisture on the threshold runoff response in a small headwater catchment in the Italian Alps that is characterised by steep hillslopes and a distinct riparian zone. This study focuses on: (i) the threshold soil moisture-runoff relationship and the influence of catchment topography on this relation; (ii) the temporal dynamics of soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater that characterize the catchment's response to rainfall during dry and wet periods; and (iii) the combined effect of antecedent wetness conditions and rainfall amount on hillslope and riparian runoff. Our results highlight the strong control exerted by soil moisture on runoff in this catchment: a sharp threshold exists in the relationship between soil water content and runoff coefficient, streamflow, and hillslope-averaged depth to water table. Low runoff ratios were likely related to the response of the riparian zone, which was almost always close to saturation. High runoff ratios occurred during wet antecedent conditions, when the soil moisture threshold was exceeded. In these cases, subsurface flow was activated on hillslopes, which became a major contributor to runoff. Antecedent wetness conditions also controlled the catchment's response time: during dry periods, streamflow reacted and peaked prior to hillslope soil moisture whereas during wet conditions the opposite occurred. This difference resulted in a hysteretic behaviour in the soil moisture-streamflow relationship. Finally, the influence of antecedent moisture conditions on runoff was also evident in the relation between cumulative rainfall and total stormflow. Small storms during dry conditions produced low stormflow amounts, likely mainly from overland flow from the near saturated riparian zone. Conversely, for rainfall events during wet conditions, higher stormflow values were observed and hillslopes must have contributed to streamflow.