The water source protection areas of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (YHWDP) in Anhui Province serve as crucial ecological barriers to water quality protection. Quantifying their eco-environmental quality (EEQ) dynamics and driving mechanisms is critical for sustainable management. This paper calculated the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) for the study area using Landsat satellite data (2015–2024). Temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed using the Theil–Sen estimator, Mann–Kendall test, and coefficient of variation. Future trends were predicted using the Hurst exponent. Finally, the Geodetector model was applied to assess the impact of driving factors. EEQ exhibited a declining trend (p < 0.05), with significant intra-regional heterogeneity. Mean RSEI values ranked as follows: (1) Yangtze River–Huaihe River Connection < Yangtze River Water Northward Conveyance < Yangtze River–Chaohu Lake Water Diversion. (2) From 2015 to 2024, eco-environmental quality improved significantly, showing a spatial pattern of “south > north, east > west.” (3) Overall EEQ changes were characterized by slight to moderate fluctuations. Stability rankings: Yangtze River–Huaihe River Connection > Yangtze River–Chaohu Lake Water Diversion > Yangtze River Water Northward Conveyance. (4) Geodetector analysis identified precipitation, impervious area, and vegetation coverage as the primary factors influencing EEQ in the YHWDP’s water source protection areas. This study reveals ecological changes in the YHWDP region and validates the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation method. The findings provide actionable insights for ecological protection in large-scale water diversion projects.

Understanding the correlation between water resources quantity and the urbanization process is crucial for achieving coordinated development of a socio-economy and ecological security in river basin cities. Taking the water resources quantity (including total water resources quantity, water supply quantity, and water consumption) and urbanization process indicators (including GDP, permanent resident population, agricultural irrigation quantity, and waterway transportation quantity) of the study area from 2011 to 2024 as the objects, this paper adopts a Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression methods to analyze the correlation characteristics between them. The results revealed that total water resources quantity was significantly positively correlated with GDP (r = 0.578 *; p < 0.05), permanent resident population (r = 0.708 **; p < 0.01) and waterway transportation quantity (r = 0.535 *; p < 0.05) but had no significant correlation with agricultural irrigation quantity (r = −0.396). Water supply quantity and water consumption presented significant negative correlations with GDP (r = −0.711 *; r = −0.601 *) and waterway transportation quantity (r = −0.797 **; r = −0.736 **), highly significant positive correlations with agricultural irrigation quantity (r = 0.854 **; r = 0.879 **), and no significant correlation with permanent resident population (r = −333; r = −383). This study uncovers the differentiated responses of water resource indicators to socio-economic activities amid urbanization, which not only reflects the evolution of the regional water consumption structure but also verifies the effectiveness of water conservation efforts. It provides a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization and optimized management of water resources in the development process of Bengbu city.

Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) is a core indicator for evaluating ecological environment quality, soil conservation capacity and riparian ecosystem sustainability. Using 30 m Landsat time-series data spanning 2011–2025, this study classified FVC into five grades. The Theil–Sen median slope estimation, Mann–Kendall significance test, univariate linear regression, and wavelet coherence method were applied to investigate spatiotemporal dynamics and time–frequency coupling responses of multi-grade FVC to the driving factors of sustainable ecological governance. Results demonstrated that 63.4% of the area exhibited stable vegetation coverage, 28.3% presented significant improvement, and only 8.3% suffered degradation. Spatially, high- and medium-high-FVC areas were concentrated in the riparian ecological zone, artificial forests, and agricultural land; while low-FVC areas were concentrated in urban and industrial zones. Linear regression evidenced a statistically significant increasing trend for high-FVC areas (R² = 0.304, p = 0.033), whereas low-FVC areas presented non-significant long-term monotonic variation (R² = 0.079, p = 0.309). The results of wavelet transform coherence tests revealed that high-FVC areas maintained persistent in-phase synchronous coupling with agricultural irrigation volume on a two-year cycle, and exhibited anti-phase lagged oscillations against total water resource volume. Low-FVC areas were sensitive to agricultural irrigation volume, and the influences of total water resources volume and annual precipitation on FVC were time-varying rather than persistent. This study provides a quantitative theoretical and methodological support for sustainable ecological spatial management and riverbank buffer zone construction in similar urbanized river basins.