Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukraine’s agricultural production has faced significant disruption, leading to widespread cropland abandonment. These croplands were abandoned at different stages, primarily due to war-related destruction and displacement of people. Existing methods for detecting abandoned cropland fail to account for crop type differences and distinguish abandonment stages, leading to inaccuracies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework combining crop-type classification with the Bias-weighted Time-Weighted Dynamic Time Warping (BTWDTW) method, distinguishing between sowing and harvest abandonment. Additionally, the proposed framework improves accuracy by integrating a more nuanced analysis of crop-specific patterns, thus offering more precise insights into abandonment dynamics. The overall accuracy of the proposed method reached 88.9%. The results reveal a V-shaped trajectory of cropland abandonment, with abandoned areas increasing from 28,184 km² in 2022 to 33,278 km² in 2024, with 2023 showing an abandoned area of 24,007.65 km². Spatially, about 70% of sowing abandonment occurred in high-conflict areas, with hotspots of unplanted abandonment shifting from southern Ukraine to the northeast, while unharvested abandonment was observed across the entire country. Significant variations were found across crop types, with maize experiencing the highest rate of unharvested abandonment, while wheat exhibited a more balanced pattern of sowing and harvest losses. The proposed method and results provide valuable insights for post-conflict agricultural recovery and decision-making in recovery planning.

Accurate, scalable estimation of rice planting dates is essential for climate-adaptive management in multi-cropping regions, yet most models rely on static calendars, which fail to capture climate-driven shifts and bias simulated yield responses. This study aims to develop a climate-driven, spatially explicit framework to simulate dynamic transplanting dates across diverse multi-cropping systems in monsoon Asia. Utilizing daily AgERA5 reanalysis and Monsoon Asia Rice Calendar (MARC) data from 2019 to 2020, we present Geo-ROCKET. The framework integrates an automated K-means clustering workflow to delineate bimodal planting windows and employs random convolutional kernel transforms with adaptive geographic neighborhoods to capture local climate heterogeneity. Evaluated by area-weighted mean absolute error (MAE), the model achieves high accuracy across six seasons (MAE 6.53–12.50 days), outperforming six traditional ROCKET and ensemble baselines while preserving smooth spatial error fields. Sensitivity experiments reveal that a 15-day bias in the previous harvest date can increase transplanting error to 10.8–17.8 days, emphasizing the importance of sequential consistency. By providing dynamic, climate-sensitive inputs, Geo-ROCKET improves the accuracy of crop modeling for climate impact projections. This framework offers a flexible tool for characterizing human management decisions and evaluating adaptation strategies in intensive agricultural systems.