As a carrier of civilization, cultural heritage reflects the dynamic relationship between humans and their environment within specific historical contexts. During the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1912 CE), the Yangtze River Basin was one of the most prominent regions for economic and cultural activities in ancient China. The cultural heritage of this period was characterized by its dense distribution and continuous evolution. Considering the applicability bias of modern data in historical interpretation, this study selected four characteristic variables: population density, agricultural productivity, technological level, and temperature anomaly. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed and change points were detected to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms behind the spatiotemporal distribution of cultural heritage. The results show the following: (1) The distribution of cultural heritage exhibited a multipolar trend by the mid-period in both Dynasties, with high-density areas contracting in the later period. (2) Agricultural productivity consistently had a significant positive impact, while population density also had a significant positive impact, except during the mid-Ming period. (3) The cultural calibration terms, which account for observational differences resulting from the interaction between cultural systems and environmental variables, exhibited slight variations. (4) The change point for population density was 364.83 people/km², and for agricultural productivity it was 2.86 × 10⁹ kJ/km². This study confirms that the differentiation in the spatiotemporal distribution of cultural heritage is driven by the synergistic effects of population and resources. This provides a new perspective for researching human–land relations in a cross-cultural context.

Cultural heritage systems play a crucial role in decoding human–environment interactions and social evolution. This study aims to reveal the spatial coupling characteristics of tangible and intangible cultural heritage in China, as well as the heterogeneity of their driving mechanisms. After quantifying heritage coupling at three geographic scales, we integrated a hierarchical Bayesian model with a hybrid causal inference framework to identify the correlations, causal effects, and heterogeneity of the driving factors. The empirical results indicate the following: (1) The coupling patterns exhibit scale dependence. The proportion of strongly coupled areas decreases from the prefecture-level scale to the provincial scale but increases at the cultural–geographical unit scale. This suggests that China’s cultural system has a cohesive effect that transcends administrative boundaries. (2) The hierarchical Bayesian model identifies the significant effects of mean annual temperature, population density, GDP–population interaction, transport–hydrological network interaction, and industrial structure. Effect strengths generally peak at the prefecture-level scale and decrease at the provincial scale. (3) Causal inference estimates the causal effects of mean annual temperature, transport–hydrological network interaction, mean annual precipitation, and water network density on coupling. (4) Heterogeneity tests reveal that the positive causal effect of transport–hydrological network interaction and the negative causal effect of mean annual precipitation are significant only in low-temperature regions. By integrating hierarchical modeling with causal verification, this study elucidates the mechanisms underlying heritage coupling. This provides a scientific basis for understanding the spatial patterns of cultural heritage systems and formulating differentiated conservation policies.