This paper proposes a unified data-driven framework for topology identification, risk quantification, and reconfiguration optimization in power distribution networks under incomplete and fragmented observability. Motivated by real-world challenges where asset metadata, SCADA records, GIS layouts, and dispatcher logs are misaligned or incomplete, the proposed approach reconstructs network topology using a graph convolutional network (GCN) that fuses heterogeneous data attributes and learns structural representations from partial connectivity information. On the inferred topology, a scenario-based risk evaluation model is formulated to capture both local fragility and spatial risk propagation, integrating factors such as load stress, asset aging, and nodal redundancy into a unified zone-level risk index. To mitigate this risk, a bilevel reconfiguration optimization model is developed, in which the upper level minimizes cumulative risk and switching cost while maximizing load restoration, and the lower level enforces electrical feasibility under contingency-aware constraints. The full pipeline is tested on a 58-node synthetic distribution system with embedded DERs, showcasing the ability of the framework to reduce peak nodal risk by 52.7%, restore over 94% of total demand in 90% of scenarios, and maintain tractable computation times under 9 mins per scenario across 100 fault cases. A suite of detailed visualizations–including confidence-based topology maps, switching heatmaps, congestion-weighted flow diagrams, and fairness-control tradeoff surfaces–demonstrates the interpretability and operational relevance of the results. The proposed framework offers a scalable, adaptive solution for resilient distribution network management under uncertainty and fragmented digital infrastructure.
The integration of distributed generation (DG) into distribution networks has significantly increased the strong coupling between power supply capacity and renewable energy acceptance capacity. Addressing this strong coupling while enhancing both capacities presents a critical challenge in modern distribution network development. This study introduces an innovative joint planning and reconstruction strategy for network and energy storage, designed to simultaneously enhance power supply capacity and renewable energy acceptance capacity. The proposed approach employs a bi-level optimization model: the upper level focuses on minimizing economic costs by determining the optimal locations and capacities of energy storage systems and the layout of network lines, while the lower level aims to maximize power supply and renewable energy acceptance capacities by optimizing line switch states. Additionally, this research quantifies the coupling relationship between these two capacities under uncertainty, providing a deeper understanding of their dynamic interaction. Advanced computational techniques, including Monte Carlo simulations and particle swarm optimization (PSO), are utilized to solve the model efficiently. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed strategy effectively enhances both power supply and renewable energy acceptance capacities. Furthermore, exploring the strong coupling relationship between these two capacities under various conditions not only optimizes the utilization of renewable energy in the power system and prevents resource waste, but also helps avoid the volatility impacts of renewable energy uncertainty on the power system in actual planning. Additionally, the network and energy storage joint planning and reconstruction strategy proposed in this study achieves cost minimization under the constraint of limited resources and simultaneously enhanced both capacities. The strategy provides feasible solutions for power grid planning in actual applications.
The integration of high-penetration renewable energy sources (RESs) into transmission networks introduces profound uncertainty that challenges traditional infrastructure planning approaches. Existing transmission expansion planning (TEP) models either rely on static scenario sets or over-conservative worst-case assumptions, failing to capture the operational stress triggered by rare but structurally impactful renewable behaviors. This paper proposes a novel bi-level optimization framework for transmission planning under adversarial uncertainty, coupling a distributionally robust upper-level investment model with a lower-level operational response embedded with physics and market constraints. The uncertainty space was not exogenously fixed, but instead dynamically generated through a physics-informed spatiotemporal generative adversarial network (PI-ST-GAN), which synthesizes high-risk renewable and load scenarios designed to maximally challenge the system’s resilience. The generator was co-trained using a composite stress index—combining expected energy not served, loss-of-load probability, and marginal congestion cost—ensuring that each scenario reflects both physical plausibility and operational extremity. The resulting bi-level model was reformulated using strong duality, and it was decomposed into a tractable mixed-integer structure with embedded adversarial learning loops. The proposed framework was validated on a modified IEEE 118-bus system with high wind and solar penetration. Results demonstrate that the GAN-enhanced planner consistently outperforms deterministic and stochastic baselines, reducing renewable curtailment by up to 48.7% and load shedding by 62.4% under worst-case realization. Moreover, the stress investment frontier exhibits clear convexity, enabling planners to identify cost-efficient resilience strategies. Spatial congestion maps and scenario risk-density plots further illustrate the ability of adversarial learning to reveal latent structural bottlenecks not captured by conventional methods. This work offers a new methodological paradigm, in which optimization and generative AI co-evolve to produce robust, data-aware, and stress-responsive transmission infrastructure designs.
Market power remains a persistent challenge in liberalized electricity spot markets, where generators can manipulate bids to distort prices and extract rents. Traditional monitoring approaches—such as structural indices or simulation-based models—offer partial insights but fail to capture the nonlinear, spatially correlated propagation of strategic behavior across transmission-constrained networks. This paper develops a diffusion neural learning framework for market power risk assessment that integrates welfare optimization, nodal pricing dynamics, and graph-based deep learning. Specifically, a Graph Diffusion Network (GDN) is trained on simulated spot market scenarios to learn how localized strategic deviations spread through the network, distort locational marginal prices, and alter system welfare. The modeling framework combines a system-wide welfare maximization objective with multi-constraint market clearing, while the GDN embeds network topology into predictive learning. Results from a case study on an IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that the proposed method achieves an R2 of 0.91 in predicting market power indices, outperforming multilayer perceptrons, recurrent neural networks, and Transformer baselines. Welfare analysis reveals that distributionally robust optimization safeguards up to 3.3 million USD in adverse scenarios compared with baseline stochastic approaches. Further, congestion mapping highlights that strategic bidding concentrates distortions at specific nodes, amplifying rents by up to 40 percent. The proposed approach thus offers both predictive accuracy and interpretability, enabling regulators to detect emerging risks and design targeted mitigation strategies. Overall, this work establishes diffusion-based learning as a novel and effective paradigm for electricity market power assessment under high uncertainty and renewable penetration.
Traditional power system planning methods are often based on deterministic assumptions, which cannot effectively address the uncertainties brought by high proportions of renewable energy sources. This may result in insufficient power supply or wasted resources. This paper proposes a novel optimization planning method for power systems, combining a hierarchical Copula model with a comprehensive risk assessment approach. The aim is to optimize the balance between investment costs and operational risks in large-scale power systems. The hierarchical Copula model is employed to handle the spatial correlation and temporal dependence between wind power, photovoltaic power, and load. Multiple joint scenarios are generated using the Monte Carlo method to reflect the complex interactions between different geographic locations, providing more comprehensive data support for risk assessment. Additionally, a CVaR-based comprehensive risk assessment method is used to quantify the risks of power loss and resource wastage, which are then integrated into a comprehensive risk indicator through weighted aggregation. An optimization framework considering supply–demand probability balance constraints is proposed, allowing for supply–demand balance at a certain probability level. Benders decomposition is used to improve computational efficiency. Simulation results show that, compared to traditional methods, the proposed model significantly reduces the curtailment rate and supply–demand imbalance frequency, improving the system’s adaptability to uncertainties and extreme scenarios.
This paper presents a deep reinforcement learning-based demand response (DR) optimization framework for active distribution networks under uncertainty and user heterogeneity. The proposed model utilizes a Double Deep Q-Network (Double DQN) to learn adaptive, multi-period DR strategies across residential, commercial, and electric vehicle (EV) participants in a 24 h rolling horizon. By incorporating a structured state representation—including forecasted load, photovoltaic (PV) output, dynamic pricing, historical DR actions, and voltage states—the agent autonomously learns control policies that minimize total operational costs while maintaining grid feasibility and voltage stability. The physical system is modeled via detailed constraints, including power flow balance, voltage magnitude bounds, PV curtailment caps, deferrable load recovery windows, and user-specific availability envelopes. A case study based on a modified IEEE 33-bus distribution network with embedded PV and DR nodes demonstrates the framework’s effectiveness. Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves significant cost savings (up to 35% over baseline), enhances PV absorption, reduces load variance by 42%, and maintains voltage profiles within safe operational thresholds. Training curves confirm smooth Q-value convergence and stable policy performance, while spatiotemporal visualizations reveal interpretable DR behavior aligned with both economic and physical system constraints. This work contributes a scalable, model-free approach for intelligent DR coordination in smart grids, integrating learning-based control with physical grid realism. The modular design allows for future extension to multi-agent systems, storage coordination, and market-integrated DR scheduling. The results position Double DQN as a promising architecture for operational decision-making in AI-enabled distribution networks.