Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Ambient temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission and suitability, affecting the life-cycle of the Plasmodium parasite and Anopheles vector. Early models predicted a thermal malaria transmission optimum of 31 °C, later revised to 25 °C using experimental data from mosquito and parasite biology. However, the link between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence remains poorly resolved. To evaluate the relationship between ambient temperature and malaria risk, 5833 febrile children (<18 years-old) with an acute, non-localizing febrile illness were enrolled from four heterogenous outpatient clinic sites in Kenya (Chulaimbo, Kisumu, Msambweni and Ukunda). Thick and thin blood smears were evaluated for the presence of malaria parasites. Daily temperature estimates were obtained from land logger data, and rainfall from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Africa Rainfall Climatology (ARC) data. Thirty-day mean temperature and 30-day cumulative rainfall were estimated and each lagged by 30 days, relative to the febrile visit. A generalized linear mixed model was used to assess relationships between malaria smear positivity and predictors including temperature, rainfall, age, sex, mosquito exposure and socioeconomic status. Malaria smear positivity varied between 42–83% across four clinic sites in western and coastal Kenya, with highest smear positivity in the rural, western site. The temperature ranges were cooler in the western sites and warmer in the coastal sites. In multivariate analysis controlling for socioeconomic status, age, sex, rainfall and bednet use, malaria smear positivity peaked near 25 °C at all four sites, as predicted a priori from an ecological model. This study provides direct field evidence of a unimodal relationship between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence with a peak in malaria transmission occurring at lower temperatures than previously recognized clinically. This nonlinear relationship with an intermediate optimal temperature implies that future climate warming could expand malaria incidence in cooler, highland regions while decreasing incidence in already warm regions with average temperatures above 25 °C. These findings support efforts to further understand the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and vector-borne diseases to better allocate resources and respond to disease threats in a future, warmer world.

Nomadic pastoralists are among the world’s hardest-to-reach and least served populations. Pastoralist communities are difficult to capture in household surveys because of factors including their high degree of mobility over remote terrain, fluid domestic arrangements, and cultural barriers. Most surveys use census-based sampling frames which do not accurately capture the demographic and health parameters of nomadic populations. As a result, pastoralists are “invisible” in population data such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). By combining remote sensing and geospatial analysis, we developed a sampling strategy designed to capture the current distribution of nomadic populations. We then implemented this sampling frame to survey a population of mobile pastoralists in southwest Ethiopia, focusing on maternal and child health (MCH) indicators. Using standardized instruments from DHS questionnaires, we draw comparisons with regional and national data finding disparities with DHS data in core MCH indicators, including vaccination coverage, skilled birth attendance, and nutritional status. Our field validation demonstrates that this method is a logistically feasible alternative to conventional sampling frames and may be used at the population level. Geospatial sampling methods provide cost-affordable and logistically feasible strategies for sampling mobile populations, a crucial first step toward reaching these groups with health services.

Cali, Colombia has experienced chikungunya and Zika outbreaks and hypoendemic dengue. Studies have explained Cali’s dengue patterns but lack the sub-neighborhood-scale detail investigated here. Spatial-video geonarratives (SVG) with Ministry of Health officials and Community Health Workers were collected in hotspots, providing perspective on perceptions of why dengue, chikungunya and Zika hotspots exist, impediments to control, and social outcomes. Using spatial video and Google Street View, sub-neighborhood features possibly contributing to incidence were mapped to create risk surfaces, later compared with dengue, chikungunya and Zika case data. SVG captured insights in 24 neighborhoods. Trash and water risks in Calipso were mapped using SVG results. Perceived risk factors included proximity to standing water, canals, poverty, invasions, localized violence and military migration. These risks overlapped case density maps and identified areas that are suitable for transmission but are possibly underreporting to the surveillance system. Resulting risk maps with local context could be leveraged to increase vector-control efficiency- targeting key areas of environmental risk.

The 2005–06 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak in La Réunion suggested that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their neonates while viremic during the intrapartum period, and more than half of the infected neonates showed impaired neurodevelopment at two years of age. However, data sparsity precluded an overview of the developmental impact of vertical infection within the whole prenatal period. The current study assessed two-year old children born to mothers who were infected during the 2014 CHIKV outbreak in Grenada to determine the neurodevelopmental impact of perinatal CHIKV infection throughout gestation. Mother and child infection status were confirmed by serologic testing (IgG and IgM) for CHIKV. Cognitive, fine motor, gross motor, language and behavioral outcomes were assessed at two years of age on the INTERGROWTH-21^st Neurodevelopment Assessment (INTER-NDA). No differences in neurodevelopmental outcomes were observed between two-year-old children born to mothers infected with CHIKV during gestation (n = 149) and those born to mothers not infected with CHIKV (n = 161). No differences were found in INTER-NDA scores between children infected with CHIKV (n = 47) and children not infected with CHIKV (n = 592). Likewise, there were no differences between children infected with CHIKV post-partum (n = 19) versus children not infected with CHIKV (n = 592). Our findings suggest that children exposed and/or infected with CHIKV outside of the intrapartum period experience no significant neurodevelopmental delay at two years of age, as measured by the INTER-NDA, compared to their unexposed and/or uninfected peers. These results complement those of previous studies which showed a neurodevelopmental risk only for children infected during the intrapartum period, while the mother was highly viremic. These results might be reassuring for women of childbearing age and public health officials in CHIKV-endemic regions. The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) can negatively impact fetal neurodevelopment and consequent neurocognitive functioning in young children. Studies from La Réunion island demonstrated that, compared to their uninfected counterparts, children infected by CHIKV during the intrapartum period were at increased risk for deficiencies in the frontal lobes where the language and coordination centers are located, as well as slight deficits in other neurocognitive skills like sociability, movement and posture. The current study assessed two-year old children born to mothers infected during the 2014 CHIKV outbreak in Grenada to determine the neurodevelopmental impact of perinatal infection throughout gestation. No differences in neurodevelopmental outcomes were observed between two-year-old children born to mothers infected with CHIKV during gestation and those born to mothers not infected with CHIKV, nor between children infected with CHIKV and children not infected with CHIKV. Our results support previous findings that a small proportion of children born in CHIKV-endemic regions are at risk as only mothers viremic during the intrapartum period are at risk of infecting their neonates. Healthcare providers in CHIKV-endemic regions may wish to monitor for CHIKV symptoms when pregnant women are near term. The relatively high symptomatic rate seen with CHIKV infection (75%) makes such monitoring feasible.