Despite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality were met only by a few countries. Valid concerns exist as to whether the region would meet new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for under-5 mortality. We therefore examine further sources of variation by assessing age patterns, trends, and forecasts of mortality rates. Data came from 106 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) with full birth histories from 31 SSA countries from 1990 to 2017 (a total of 524 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following new demographic analyses. First, we used a direct method and full birth histories to estimate under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) on a monthly basis. Second, we smoothed raw estimates of death rates by age and time by using a two-dimensional P-Spline approach. Third, a variant of the Lee–Carter (LC) model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) to adjust, validate, and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation. Our mortality model revealed substantive declines of death rates at every age in most countries but with notable differences in the age patterns over time. U5MRs declined from 3.3% (annual rate of reduction [ARR] 0.1%) in Lesotho to 76.4% (ARR 5.2%) in Malawi, and the pace of decline was faster on average (ARR 3.2%) than that observed for infant (IMRs) (ARR 2.7%) and neonatal (NMRs) (ARR 2.0%) mortality rates. We predict that 5 countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the under-5 sustainable development target by 2030 (25 deaths per 1,000 live births), but only Rwanda and Tanzania would meet both the neonatal (12 deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-5 targets simultaneously. Our predicted NMRs and U5MRs were in line with those estimated by the UN IGME by 2030 and 2050 (they overlapped in 27/31 countries for NMRs and 22 for U5MRs) and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) by 2030 (26/31 and 23/31, respectively). This study has a number of limitations, including poor data quality issues that reflected bias in the report of births and deaths, preventing reliable estimates and predictions from a few countries. To our knowledge, this study is the first to combine full birth histories and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in SSA. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction (ARR ≥ 3.2%) across ages would be more likely to achieve the SDG mortality targets. However, the lower pace of neonatal mortality reduction would prevent most countries from achieving those targets: 2 countries would reach them by 2030, 13 between 2030 and 2050, and 13 after 2050.

Whilst the prevalence of unmet need and contraceptive use remained unchanged for 10 years (between 2005–2015) in India, gender restrictive norms and power imbalances also have persisted, preventing married women from meeting their family planning desires. Data for this study are from the 2015–6 National Family Household Survey, which contains information on fertility preferences and family planning for women in reproductive age. As a proxy for men’s attitudinal norms, we aggregated men’s perceptions regarding contraception (contraception is women’s business, women who use contraception may become promiscuous) and control over their wife (if his wife refuses to have sex, men have the right to deny financial support, have sex with another woman, or beat wife) at district level. Using a three-level random intercepts model, we assessed individual and contextual-level associations of men’s attitudinal norms and met need for contraception among sexually active women (aged 15–49) with any demand for family planning, while adjusting for women’s empowerment indicators [education, job status, and adult marriage] and individual demographic factors. Our results indicate that men’s attitudinal norms are negatively associated with women’s contraceptive use; for instance, a 1 standard deviation increase in the proportion of men who believe that contraception is women’s business was associated with a 12% reduced likelihood of contraceptive use (OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.82–0.95). Similar associations remained or were stronger after considering only modern methods, or when excluding female sterilization. Furthermore, our contextual effects analysis revealed that women’s higher education or wealth did not improve contraceptive uptake in communities with strong attitudinal norms, but working women or women married as children were more likely to use contraception in those communities. Our results suggest that men’s attitudinal norms may be dominating over women’s empowerment regarding family planning choices among reproductive age women. However, employment appeared to play a strong protective role associated with women’s contraceptive use. It is important for programs seeking to transform gender equality and empower women in making contraceptive choices to consider women’s employment opportunities and to also address male attitudinal norms in the context of the ecosystem in which men and women coexist and interact.

Nomadic pastoralists are among the world’s hardest-to-reach and least served populations. Pastoralist communities are difficult to capture in household surveys because of factors including their high degree of mobility over remote terrain, fluid domestic arrangements, and cultural barriers. Most surveys use census-based sampling frames which do not accurately capture the demographic and health parameters of nomadic populations. As a result, pastoralists are “invisible” in population data such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). By combining remote sensing and geospatial analysis, we developed a sampling strategy designed to capture the current distribution of nomadic populations. We then implemented this sampling frame to survey a population of mobile pastoralists in southwest Ethiopia, focusing on maternal and child health (MCH) indicators. Using standardized instruments from DHS questionnaires, we draw comparisons with regional and national data finding disparities with DHS data in core MCH indicators, including vaccination coverage, skilled birth attendance, and nutritional status. Our field validation demonstrates that this method is a logistically feasible alternative to conventional sampling frames and may be used at the population level. Geospatial sampling methods provide cost-affordable and logistically feasible strategies for sampling mobile populations, a crucial first step toward reaching these groups with health services.

Understanding how gender norms affect health is an important entry point into designing programs and policies to change norms and improve gender equality and health. However, it is rare for global health datasets to include questions on gender norms, especially questions that go beyond measuring gender-related attitudes, thus limiting gender analysis. We developed five case studies using health survey data from six countries to demonstrate approaches to defining and operationalising proxy measures and analytic approaches to investigating how gender norms can affect health. Key findings, strengths and limitations of our norms proxies and methodological choices are summarised. Case studies revealed links between gender norms and multiple adolescent health outcomes. Proxys for norms were derived from data on attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours, as well as differences between attitudes and behaviours. Data were cross-sectional, longitudinal, census- and social network-based. Analytic methods were diverse. We found that gender norms affect: 1) Intimate partner violence in Nigeria; 2) Unhealthy weight control behaviours in Brazil and South Africa; 3) HIV status in Zambia; 4) Health and social mobility in the US; and 5) Childbirth in Honduras. Researchers can use existing global health survey data to examine pathways through which gender norms affect health by generating proxies for gender norms. While direct measures of gender norms can greatly improve the understanding of how gender affects health, proxy measures for norms can be designed for the specific health-related outcome and normative context, for instance by either aggregating behaviours or attitudes or quantifying the difference (dissonance) between them. These norm proxies enable evaluations of the influence of gender norms on health and insights into possible reference groups and sanctions for non-compliers, thus informing programmes and policies to shape norms and improve health.

There is ample evidence that gender norms affect contraceptive practice; however, data are mostly qualitative with limited geographical scope. We investigated that association quantitatively using collective community-level attitudes towards premarital sex and wife-beating as proxies for gender norms. Data came from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2009) for women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in nine sub-Saharan African countries. Using multilevel logistic models, controlling for individual covariates and community-level indicators of women's empowerment, we assessed the community-level association of gender norms regarding premarital sex and wife-beating with individual contraception uptake and demand satisfied among fecund sexually active women. Norms were approximated as 'collective attitudinal norms' from female/male residents (aged 15-49 years) from the same community. We assessed the magnitude and significance of the community-level effects and attributed variance across communities. The same analysis was replicated for each country. In a fully-adjusted model with a pooled sample of 24 404 adolescent women, the odds of contraception use increased with a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in the variation of collective permissive attitudes towards premarital sex of female (odds ratio (OR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.15) and male (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.05-1.17) peers (15-24 years), while odds of contraceptive use declined by 10% (OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.85-0.96) with collective accepting attitudes towards wife-beating of women aged 15-49 years. Similar results were found in separate models that controlled for adults' permissive attitudes towards premarital sex. The community-level attributed variance (V2 = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.45-1.80) represented 33% (intra-class correlation (ICC) = 33.0, 95% CI = 30.0-35.4) of the total variation of contraception use, and attitudes towards premarital sex and violence jointly explained nearly 26% of that V2 variance. The community-level shared of attributed variation of contraceptive use varied significantly across countries, from 3.5% in Swaziland (ICC = 3.5, 95% CI = 0.8-13.7) to 60.2% in Nigeria (OR = 60.2, 95% CI = 56.0-64.2). Overall, significant positive associations of collective permissive attitudes of both adolescent and adult women towards premarital sex were found for use of, and demand for, contraception, whereas collective accepting attitudes towards wife-beating were negatively associated with the use and demand for contraception. Ours is the first study to define quantitatively the influence of proxies for gender norms at the community level on women's family planning decisions. These findings offer new insights for understanding the role of sex-related attitudes and norms as important factors in shaping contraceptive practices and improving the effectiveness of family planning policies by targeting individuals as well as their groups of influence.

Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes but may also be prone to elite capture and thus divergence. We study the case of penicillin using detailed historical mortality statistics and exploiting its abruptly timed introduction in Italy after WWII. We find that penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious disease mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be driven by competing risks or confounded by mortality patterns associated with WWII.