Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning.
Research has been mainly focused on how to elicit patient preferences, with less attention on why patients form certain preferences. To assess which psychological instruments are currently used and which psychological constructs are known to have an impact on patients' preferences and health-related decisions including the formation of preferences and preference heterogeneity. A systematic database search was undertaken to identify relevant studies. From the selected studies, the following information was extracted: study objectives, study population, design, psychological dimensions investigated, and instruments used to measure psychological variables. Thirty-three studies were identified that described the association between a psychological construct, measured using a validated instrument, and patients' preferences or health-related decisions. We identified 33 psychological instruments and 18 constructs, and categorized the instruments into 5 groups, namely, motivational factors, cognitive factors, individual differences, emotion and mood, and health beliefs. This review provides an overview of the psychological factors and related instruments in the context of patients' preferences and decisions in healthcare settings. Our results indicate that measures of health literacy, numeracy, and locus of control have an impact on health-related preferences and decisions. Within the category of constructs that could explain preference and decision heterogeneity, health locus of control is a strong predictor of decisions in several healthcare contexts and is useful to consider when designing a patient preference study. Future research should continue to explore the association of psychological constructs with preference formation and heterogeneity to build on these initial recommendations.
Aims: To evaluate the effectiveness of eHealth interventions to reduce stress and promote mental health in healthcare professionals, and to compare the efficacy of different types of programs (guided vs. self‐guided; ‘third‐wave’ psychotherapies vs. other types).Background: Healthcare workers present high levels of stress, which constitutes a risk factor for developing mental health problems such as depression and anxiety. eHealth interventions have been designed to reduce these professional's stress considering that the characteristics of this delivery method make it a cost‐effective and very appealing alternative because of its fast and easy access.Design: A systematic review of quantitative studies.Methods: A comprehensive database search for quantitative studies was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane (until 1 April 2022). The systematic review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA and SWiM reporting guidelines. The quality of the studies was assessed using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute tools.Results: The abstracts of 6349 articles were assessed and 60 underwent in‐depth review, with 27 fulfilling the inclusion criteria. The interventions were classified according to their format (self‐guided vs. guided) and contents (‘third‐wave’ psychotherapies vs. others). Twenty‐two interventions emerged, 13 of which produced significant posttreatment reductions in stress levels of health professionals (9 self‐guided, 8 ‘third wave’ psychotherapies). Significant effects in improving depressive symptomatology, anxiety, burnout, resilience and mindfulness, amongst others, were also found.Conclusion: The evidence gathered in this review highlights the heterogeneity of the eHealth interventions that have been studied; self‐guided and ‘third‐wave’ psychotherapy programs are the most common, often with promising results, although the methodological shortcomings of most studies hinder the extraction of sound conclusions.Protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42022310199. No Patient or Public Contribution.