Inflation expectations play a central role in monetary policy effectiveness, yet relatively little is known about how individual behavioral traits shape expectation formation. This study examines whether time discounting and hyperbolic discounting, key dimensions of intertemporal preferences, are systematically associated with household inflation expectations. Using large-scale survey data from Japan that elicit both time preference measures and qualitative inflation expectations, we analyze expectations over one-, three-, and five-year horizons. The empirical analysis employs ordered probit models that fit well with the categorical nature of survey-based inflation expectations and controls for a rich set of demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral characteristics, including financial literacy and risk preferences. The results reveal clear horizon-dependent patterns. Hyperbolic discounting is positively associated with short-term inflation expectations, suggesting that present-biased individuals place greater weight on recent inflation developments. In contrast, higher time discount rates are associated with higher inflation expectations at medium and longer horizons, indicating that impatience is more relevant for beliefs about distant future prices. These findings provide novel evidence on the behavioral micro-foundations of inflation expectation formation and highlight the importance of heterogeneity in time preferences. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that one-size-fits-all communication strategies may be insufficient and that effective expectation management may require tailoring messages to account for differences in individuals’ time orientation across forecast horizons.

Investment loss tolerance refers to an investor’s willingness to hold financial instruments after experiencing value declines and is considered essential to long-term investment success. Financial literacy, comprising financial knowledge, attitude, and behavior, has been widely identified as a key factor in promoting rational financial decisions. A recent study by Homma et al. suggests that the three components can help prevent panic selling during market crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, that study relies on binary behavioral indicators within crisis-specific contexts, limiting the generalizability of their findings. To address these gaps, the present study quantitatively measures investment loss tolerance using a generalized hypothetical loss scenario and investigates the associations of financial literacy components. Using a large-scale dataset of 161,223 active investors from one of Japan’s largest online securities firms, we conducted ordered probit and probit regression analyses while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors. The results reveal that financial knowledge, attitude, and behavior all have statistically significant positive effects on investment loss tolerance. These findings indicate that financial literacy enhances investors’ capacity to withstand losses and discourages premature asset liquidation, even outside crisis-specific contexts. The evidence supports policies aimed at improving financial literacy to foster more resilient investor behavior and promote long-term financial well-being.

Understanding how investors maintain positions during adverse market conditions, investment grip, is increasingly important as retail participation rises and information environments diversify. While prior research identifies demographic, psychological, and economic determinants of investment grip, little is known about how information sources influence investors’ tolerance for losses. This study examines the relationship between investment information channels and investment grip among Japanese retail investors using a large-scale dataset of 161,677 respondents from the 2025 Survey on Life and Money. Investment grip is measured through a hypothetical loss scenario, and ordered probit and probit models are used to analyze associations between loss tolerance, information sources, and investor characteristics. Results show that reliance on professional information sources such as outsourced independent financial advisors, one’s own securities company, other securities firms, and external financial experts is negatively associated with investment grip. Free information sources, including mass media and personal networks, are also linked to lower loss tolerance. In contrast, reliance on social media is consistently associated with higher investment grip. Financial literacy, wealth, and age increase investment grip, whereas risk aversion, short-term outlooks, and family responsibilities reduce it. These results have implications for policy design, advisory practices, and digital and AI-enhanced investment platforms.