This study investigates the climatic dynamics of Odesa, Ukraine, by integrating over 200 years of archival meteorological records with recent observations from the Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station and advanced machine learning techniques. The results reveal a distinct warming trend since 1985, with average annual temperatures projected by a CNN–LSTM model to rise by more than 6–7 °C above the mid-20th-century baseline by 2029, indicating an exceptionally rapid regional climatic shift. Spatial analysis of the July 2024 heatwave demonstrated pronounced thermal gradients, with the strongest overheating observed inland and the moderating influence of the Black Sea reducing temperature extremes in coastal areas. Precipitation analysis (1985–2024) showed an overall statistically insignificant increase; however, the summer months exhibited drying tendencies, a trend reinforced by model forecasts. Solar radiation dynamics (2012–2024) highlighted significant local variability shaped primarily by atmospheric conditions rather than solar activity, with notable monthly increases in October, November, and February. The novelty of this research lies in combining long-term datasets with deep learning methods to produce localized climate scenarios for Odesa, offering new insights into the city’s transition toward extreme warming, shifting precipitation patterns, and evolving solar energy potential. The findings have direct implications for environmental modeling, energy efficiency, and the development of climate change adaptation strategies in urbanized coastal regions.

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to find the features of atmospheric air pollution depending on the level of the urbogenic load of the Ukraine regions by the indicator method. The methodology of the work is based on the used complex indicators - the indicator of ecological and index of ecological-demographic urbanization. Results. Compara- tive analysis of dynamic changes in unit indicators per person of emissions from mobile and stationary sources for the period 1995 – 2020 has been executed. It is shown that the urbanization process in the whole country was reflected in a 1.8-fold reduction in unit indicators per 1 person of stationary emissions sources. The tendency of increase in traffic emissions has been noted over the past four years. The coupling between the increasing values of the ecological- demographic urbanization indices and the trend towards an increase in overall emissions of both types of sources is shown. The dominance of transport emissions in regions of different levels of ecological-demographic urbanization with the maximum amount of pollution in the Kiev region according to the data of 2020 has been confirmed. It is shown that emissions from stationary sources dominate only in five regions (Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Ivano-Frankivsk) due to the presence of large industrial and thermal power facilities. The urbogenic pollution coeffi- cients of the atmospheric environment of the regions by stationary sources have been determined. These parameters represent the impact degree of urban emissions on the safety of the atmospheric environment at the regional level. We made conclusions related to a high level enough of correspondence between the parameters of the ecological urbaniza- tion of regions and the urban pollution coefficients. Originality. The topicality of this study is associated with the de- velopment of quantitative, indicator methods for assessing regionally differentiated urban impacts on the atmospheric environment. Practical value. Thus, the indicator method for assessing regionally differentiated urban impacts on the atmospheric environment provides the basis for creating a strategy for urban development and planning in order to preserve the sustainability and regenerative capacity of the atmosphere. The policy of ensuring a high level of environ- mental safety of atmospheric air should take into account the peculiarities of cities and urbanized areas in order to in- crease the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental protection measures and improve the tools for making manage- rial decisions at the regional and national levels.

Purpose. To determine the patterns of distribution and accumulation of pollutants in the air of large urban areas of Ukraine and the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on these processes. Methodology. The aim of the study was realised by collecting, systematising, mathematically processing and analysing the results of observation of air pollution indicators in the right-bank part of Kyiv. Findings. The regularities were identified and the influence of natural (meteorological) and anthropogenic factors on the concentrations of particulate matter, carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide in the air of an urbanised environment was assessed. Originality. The nature of the dependence or lack of dependence of the concentration of the main pollutants in the atmospheric air of the right-bank territory of the city of Kyiv on basic meteorological indicators has been established. A negative correlation between the content of solid particles in the air and wind speed and wind gust speed has been revealed. Moreover, wind gust speed has a greater impact on dustiness than wind speed, and its direction is irrelevant for the city of Kyiv. A strong negative correlation between air dustiness and rainfall has been recorded. A correlation in particulate matter content has been established between all areas of the city, even those far apart from each other. This makes it possible to predict, with a calculable probability, the nature of changes in air dustiness in areas where monitoring is temporarily not being carried out. A clear daily cycle of carbon monoxide concentration in the atmospheric air and a correlation between different areas of the city for this indicator have been established, as well as a correlation between carbon monoxide concentration and solid particles. There is no daily cycle in the concentration of sulphur dioxide in the atmospheric air of the city of Kyiv. The correlation between CO and SO2 and precipitation is moderately negative. Practical value. The use of the obtained results makes it possible to make quick and informed decisions in the field of air quality management in large urban areas.

This study applies spectral analysis and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to mean annual runoff of the Dniester River for 1950–2024 to identify dominant periodic components governing the hydrological regime of this transboundary basin shared by Ukraine and Moldova. The novelty lies in a basin-specific integration in the first systematic application of a combined spectral–SSA framework to the Dniester River, enabling consistent characterization of runoff variability and assessment of large-scale natural drivers. Time series from three gauging stations are analysed to develop data-driven runoff models and medium-term forecasts. Four stable groups of periodic variability are identified, with characteristic timescales of approximately 30, 11, 3–5.8, and 2 years, corresponding to major atmospheric–oceanic oscillations (AMO, NAO, PDO, ENSO, QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle. Cross-spectral and coherence analyses reveal a statistically significant relationship between solar activity and river discharge, with an estimated lag of about 2 years. SSA reconstructions explain more than 80% of discharge variance, indicating high model reliability. Forecast comparisons show that spectral methods tend to amplify long-term trends, CNN–LSTM models produce conservative trajectories, while a hybrid ensemble approach provides the most balanced and physically interpretable projections. Ensemble forecasts indicate reduced runoff during 2025–2028, followed by recovery in 2029–2034, supporting long-term water-resources planning and climate adaptation.

The article presents the analysis of the exogenous geological process activation hazards, namely karst, in the conditions of urbanization processes. The scale of geoecological problems is shown to be directly or indirectly determined by the scale of urbanization. The relevance of the research is associated with the study of the nature of changes in the expansion of karst rocks in regions with different levels of urbanization in the period 2001 – 2020. The main aim is to analyze the hazards of karst development in relation with the factors of urbanization processes in the regions of Ukraine based on the indicator method. The particular characteristics of the impact of urbanized territories on the initiation of natural disasters and geological hazards have been determined. The urbogenic load of the regions was assessed using determined and calculated earlier indicators of ecological and ecological-demographic urbanization. The assessment of the dependence between the hazard indicator of the spread of karst rocks and the indicator of ecological urbanization in the regional context has been carried out. It is shown that in the third part of the regions, the growing hazard levels of karst processes practically coincide with the growth of the ecological urbanization index. A nearly doubling of the area of karst terrains was noted during 2001 – 2020 in all administrative regions. The coefficient of expansion of karst territories for the specified period has been calculated. Four groups of regions were identified according to the increase in karst areas in comparison with the hazards of karst processes and the index of ecological-demographic urbanization. Expansion of open karst areas in the Transcarpathian, Odessa, Rivne, Kherson, Chernivtsi regions was noted. For this group of regions, a tendency to increase the areas of surface karst in accordance with an increase in the values of urbanization indicators has been established. This is due to the exploitation of natural territorial resources, changes in the nature of land use, depletion of vegetation cover, anthropogenic loads on the ground, and imbalances in the interaction of surface and underground waters in urbanized areas. Thus, the Ukraine’s regions with different urbogenic load are differentiated depending on the territorial indicator of the danger of karst terrains, as well as the dynamics of changes in the areas of karst rocks.

This study analyses the city and its surroundings as an integrated natural-anthropogenic system, emphasising ecological urbanisation within the global urbanisation framework. This component is represented as a cycle of interlinked adverse processes, delineating the resilience limits of natural systems under urban anthropogenic impacts. Utilising indicator-based methods, we assessed multifactorial urban impacts on the environment, proposing a practical approach to calculate the ecological urbanisation indicator. Using the indicator, we have investigated the regional aspect of the atmospheric environment’s condition and identified the impact of urban sources of pollution. Additionally, we identified the main patterns of natural and human-induced hazards correlating with different levels of ecological urbanisation in different territories on the example of Ukrainian regions. Our approach addresses the uneven urban load across areas, which is essential for creating regional sustainable development strategies. It integrates environmental factors into regional safety management, requiring principles that regulate environmental impacts and promote safe land use.