Because of the complexity, nonlinearity, and volatility, stock market forecasting is either highly difficult or yields very unsatisfactory outcomes when utilizing traditional time series or machine learning techniques. To cope with this problem and improve the complex stock market’s prediction accuracy, we propose a new hybrid novel method that is based on a new version of EMD and a deep learning technique known as long-short memory (LSTM) network. The forecasting precision of the proposed hybrid ensemble method is evaluated using the KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. Using a new version of EMD that uses the Akima spline interpolation technique instead of cubic spline interpolation, the noisy stock data are first divided into multiple components technically known as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) varying from high to low frequency and a single monotone residue. The highly correlated sub-components are then used to build the LSTM network. By comparing the proposed hybrid model with a single LSTM and other ensemble models such as the support vector machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Decision Tree, its prediction performance is thoroughly evaluated. Three alternative statistical metrics, namely root means square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are used to compare the aforementioned techniques. The empirical results show that the suggested hybrid Akima-EMD-LSTM model beats all other models taken into consideration for this study and is therefore recommended as an effective model for the prediction of non-stationary and nonlinear complex financial time series data.

In the modern world, chronic kidney disease is one of the most severe diseases that negatively affects human life. It is becoming a growing problem in both developed and underdeveloped countries. An accurate and timely diagnosis of chronic kidney disease is vital in preventing and treating kidney failure. The diagnosis of chronic kidney disease through history has been considered unreliable in many respects. To classify healthy people and people with chronic kidney disease, non-invasive methods like machine learning models are reliable and efficient. In our current work, we predict chronic kidney disease using different machine learning models, including logistic, probit, random forest, decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, and support vector machine with four kernel functions (linear, Laplacian, Bessel, and radial basis kernels). The dataset is a record taken as a case–control study containing chronic kidney disease patients from district Buner, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. To compare the models in terms of classification and accuracy, we calculated different performance measures, including accuracy, Brier score, sensitivity, Youdent, specificity, and F1 score. The Diebold and Mariano test of comparable prediction accuracy was also conducted to determine whether there is a substantial difference in the accuracy measures of different predictive models. As confirmed by the results, the support vector machine with the Laplace kernel function outperforms all other models, while the random forest is competitive.

Medical costs are one of the most common recurring expenses in a person’s life. Based on different research studies, BMI, ageing, smoking, and other factors are all related to greater personal medical care costs. The estimates of the expenditures of health care related to obesity are needed to help create cost-effective obesity prevention strategies. Obesity prevention at a young age is a top concern in global health, clinical practice, and public health. To avoid these restrictions, genetic variants are employed as instrumental variables in this research. Using statistics from public huge datasets, the impact of body mass index (BMI) on overall healthcare expenses is predicted. A multiview learning architecture can be used to leverage BMI information in records, including diagnostic texts, diagnostic IDs, and patient traits. A hierarchy perception structure was suggested to choose significant words, health checks, and diagnoses for training phase informative data representations, because various words, diagnoses, and previous health care have varying significance for expense calculation. In this system model, linear regression analysis, naive Bayes classifier, and random forest algorithms were compared using a business analytic method that applied statistical and machine-learning approaches. According to the results of our forecasting method, linear regression has the maximum accuracy of 97.89 percent in forecasting overall healthcare costs. In terms of financial statistics, our methodology provides a predictive method.

Modeling and predicting time-to-event phenomena in engineering, sports, and medical sectors are very crucial. Numerous models have been proposed for modeling such types of data sets. These models are introduced by adding one or more parameters to the traditional distributions. The addition of new parameters to the traditional distributions leads to serious issues, such as estimation consequences and re-parametrization problems. To avoid such problems, this paper introduces a new method for generating new probability distributions without any additional parameters. The proposed method may be called a weighted cosine-G family of distributions. Different distributional properties of the weighted cosine-G family, along with the maximum likelihood estimators, are obtained. A special model of the weighted cosine-G family, by utilizing the Weibull model, is considered. The special model of the weighted cosine-G family may be called a weighted cosine-Weibull distribution. A simulation study of the weighted cosine-Weibull model is conducted to evaluate the performances of its estimators. Finally, the applications of the weighted cosine-Weibull distribution are shown by considering three data sets related to the time-to-event phenomena.

The rising number of confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan caused by the coronavirus have caused problems in all areas of the country, not just healthcare. For accurate policy making, it is very important to have accurate and efficient predictions of confirmed cases and death counts. In this article, we use a coronavirus dataset that includes the number of deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases to test an artificial neural network model and compare it to different univariate time series models. In contrast to the artificial neural network model, we consider five univariate time series models to predict confirmed cases, deaths count, and recovered cases. The considered models are applied to Pakistan’s daily records of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases from 10 March 2020 to 3 July 2020. Two statistical measures are considered to assess the performances of the models. In addition, a statistical test, namely, the Diebold and Mariano test, is implemented to check the accuracy of the mean errors. The results (mean error and statistical test) show that the artificial neural network model is better suited to predict death and recovered coronavirus cases. In addition, the moving average model outperforms all other confirmed case models, while the autoregressive moving average is the second-best model.

In this article, we propose the exponentiated sine-generated family of distributions. Some important properties are demonstrated, such as the series representation of the probability density function, quantile function, moments, stress-strength reliability, and Rényi entropy. A particular member, called the exponentiated sine Weibull distribution, is highlighted; we analyze its skewness and kurtosis, moments, quantile function, residual mean and reversed mean residual life functions, order statistics, and extreme value distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes estimation under the square error loss function are considered. Simulation studies are used to assess the techniques, and their performance gives satisfactory results as discussed by the mean square error, confidence intervals, and coverage probabilities of the estimates. The stress-strength reliability parameter of the exponentiated sine Weibull model is derived and estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Also, nonparametric bootstrap techniques are used to approximate the confidence interval of the reliability parameter. A simulation is conducted to examine the mean square error, standard deviations, confidence intervals, and coverage probabilities of the reliability parameter. Finally, three real applications of the exponentiated sine Weibull model are provided. One of them considers stress-strength data.