Spatially explicit water-quality information is critical for precision management in pond aquaculture but point sampling alone cannot capture pond-to-pond heterogeneity in multi-unit farms. This single-date, single-farm study re-evaluated the potential of UAV hyperspectral imagery for water-quality screening in inland aquaculture ponds in Shanghai, China, using site-matched extraction from a 138-band orthomosaic (450–998 nm, Cubert S185) acquired during a single UAV survey on 24 August 2023 and matched with 23 GPS-registered sampling sites. Eight water-quality parameters were analyzed: chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium ( ), nitrite (), nephelometric turbidity unit (NTU), chlorophyll-a (Chla), and total suspended solids (TSS). Raw single-band correlations were modest (= 0.236–0.417), but two-band difference spectral indices (DSI), normalized spectral indices (NSI), and ratio spectral indices (RSI) substantially improved sensitivity, with reaching 0.558–0.928. Quadratic inversion models were calibrated on the full dataset and assessed using three validation layers: two-fold cross-validation, nested leave-one-pond-out (LOPO) validation with within-fold predictor reselection, and extraction-window sensitivity tests. Bootstrap 95% confidence intervals for calibration (Cal) R2 characterize small-sample uncertainty (n = 23). Three parameters satisfied all three defensibility criteria (Cal R2 > 0.5, CV R2 > 0.2, and LOPO R2 > 0.2): (Cal R2 = 0.836 [0.61, 0.94]; LOPO R2 = 0.420), COD (0.607 [0.34, 0.82]; 0.328), and NTU (0.862 [0.77, 0.96]; 0.204). TP, TN, , TSS, and Chla showed overfit behavior under nested holdout and were demoted to exploratory products. A TreeSHAP analysis confirmed that band-to-band contrast carried more explanatory power than raw reflectance magnitude. Extraction-sensitivity tests further demonstrated that positional uncertainty (±2-pixel offset: ΔCV = 0.23–0.41) exceeded averaging-window sensitivity (3 × 3→10 × 10: ΔCV ≤ 0.11), identifying geolocation control as the dominant robustness constraint. This single-date, single-farm reanalysis suggests that UAV hyperspectral imagery may support exploratory pond-scale screening of , COD, and NTU. However, robust quantitative inversion and broader transferability remain unverified and will require denser sampling, improved geolocation control, pond-edge masking, multi-site observations, and multi-temporal calibration.