There have been no reports about predicting survival of patients with advanced cancer constructed entirely with objective variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic model based on laboratory findings and vital signs using a fractional polynomial (FP) model. A multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted at 58 specialist palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Eligible patients were older than 20 years and had advanced cancer. We developed models for predicting 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival by using the FP modelling method. Data from 1039 patients were analysed to develop each prognostic model (Objective Prognostic Index for advanced cancer [OPI-AC]). All models included the heart rate, urea and albumin, while some models included the respiratory rate, creatinine, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase and platelet/lymphocyte ratio. The area under the curve was 0.77, 0.81, 0.90, 0.90 and 0.92 for the 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day model, respectively. The accuracy of the OPI-AC predicting 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival was significantly higher than that of the Palliative Prognostic Score or the Prognosis in Palliative Care Study model, which are based on a combination of symptoms and physician estimation. We developed highly accurate prognostic indexes for predicting the survival of patients with advanced cancer from objective variables alone, which may be useful for end-of-life management. The FP modelling method could be promising for developing other prognostic models in future research.

Background: Palliative sedation is sometimes needed for refractory symptoms, and the Richmond Agitation–Sedation Scale (RASS) is one of the key measures. The primary aim of this study was to explore the association between RASS and degree of distress quantified by other measures: Item “symptom control” of Support Team Assessment Schedule (STAS, item 2), Discomfort Scale for Dementia of Alzheimer Type (Discomfort Scale), and Noncommunicative Patient's Pain Assessment Instrument (NOPPAIN), as well as a communication capacity measured by the Communication Capacity Scale (CCS), item 4. Methods: This was a prospective observational study on terminally ill cancer patients with palliative sedation in a palliative care unit of a designated cancer hospital. Primarily responsible palliative care physicians rated RASS, Discomfort Scale, NOPPAIN, and CCS just before sedation and 1, 4, 24, and 48 hours after, and ward nurses rated STAS at the same time. Since the ward nurses evaluated STAS during palliative sedation, we regarded STAS as a standard of distress measure. Results: A total of 249 assessments were performed for 55 patients. RASS was moderately to highly associated with symptom intensity measured by STAS, discomfort measured by the Discomfort Scale, and pain measured by NOPPAIN ( r = 0.63 to 0.73). But communication capacity measured by CCS is not parallel with RASS and demonstrated a valley shape. In 82 assessments with an RASS score of −1 to −3, 11 patients (13%) had physical symptoms of STAS of 2 or more. Conclusions: RASS can roughly estimate physical distress in patients with palliative sedation, but a measure to more precisely quantify the symptom experience is needed.