Extreme precipitation events induced by tropical cyclones have increased frequency and intensity, significantly impacting human socioeconomic activities and ecological environments. This study systematically examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of these events across Hainan Island and their influencing factors using GsMAP satellite precipitation data and tropical cyclone track data. The results indicate that while the frequency of typhoon events in Hainan decreased by 0.3 events decade⁻¹ from 1949 to 2020, extreme precipitation events have increased significantly since 2000, especially in the eastern and central regions. Different typhoon tracks have distinct impacts on the island, with Track 1 (Northeastern track) and Track 2 (Central track) primarily affecting the western and central regions and Track 3 (Southern track) impacting the western region. The impact of typhoon precipitation on extreme events increased over time, being the greatest in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Incorporating typhoon precipitation data shortened the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation in the central and eastern regions. Diurnal peaks occur in the early morning and late evening, primarily affecting coastal areas. Typhoon duration (CC_max = 0.850) and wind speed (CC_max = 0.369) positively correlated with extreme precipitation, while the pressure was negatively correlated. High sea surface temperature areas were closely associated with extreme precipitation events. The atmospheric circulation indices showed a significant negative correlation with extreme precipitation, particularly in the western and central regions. ENSO events, especially sea surface temperature changes in the Niño 1 + 2 region (−0.340 to −0.406), have significantly influenced typhoon precipitation characteristics. These findings can inform region-specific disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for Hainan Island.

Litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is a pillar of the tropical agricultural economy in southern China, yet its production faces increasing instability due to climate change. Traditional agronomic models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear interactions between meteorological drivers and yield formation in perennial fruit trees. To address this challenge, the study constructed a yield prediction framework using an optimized Random Forest (RF) model integrated with interpretable machine learning (SHAP), based on a comprehensive dataset from 17 major production regions in Hainan Province (2000–2022). The model demonstrated robust predictive capability at the provincial scale (R² = 0.564, RMSE = 2.1 t/ha) and high consistency across regions (R² ranging from 0.51 to 0.94). Feature importance analysis revealed that heat accumulation (specifically growing degree days above 20 °C) is the dominant driver, explaining over 85% of yield variability. Crucially, scenario simulations uncovered asymmetric climate risks across phenological stages: while moderate warming generally enhances yield by promoting vegetative growth and ripening, it acts as a stressor during the Fruit Development stage, where temperatures exceeding 26 °C trigger yield decline. Furthermore, the yield penalty for drought during Flowering (−8.09%) far outweighed the marginal benefits of surplus rainfall, identifying this window as critically sensitive to water deficits. These findings underscore the necessity of phenology-aligned adaptation strategies—specifically, securing irrigation during flowering and deploying cooling interventions during fruit development—providing a data-driven basis for climate-smart management in tropical agriculture.

About 16% of typhoons making landfall in China strike Hainan Island, where near-surface extreme winds in dense urban areas exhibit a strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity that is difficult to capture with current observations and mesoscale models. Focusing on Haikou during Super Typhoon Yagi (2024)—the strongest autumn typhoon to hit China since 1949—we developed a multiscale ERA5–WRF–PALM framework to conduct 30 m resolution large-eddy simulations. PALM results are in reasonable agreement with most of the five automatic weather stations, while performance is weaker at the most sheltered park site. Mean near-surface wind speeds increased by 20–50% relative to normal conditions, showing a coastal–urban gradient: maps of weighted cumulative exposure to strong winds (≥Beaufort force 8) show much longer and more intense events along open coasts than within built-up urban cores. Urban morphology exerted nonlinear effects: wind speeds followed a U-shaped relation with both the open-space ratio and mean building height, with suppression zones at ~0.5–0.7 openness and ~20–40 m height, while clusters of super-tall buildings induced Venturi-like acceleration of 2–3 m s⁻¹. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed banded swaths of high winds, with open areas and islands sustaining longer, broader extremes, and dense street grids experiencing shorter, localized events. Methodologically, this study provides a rare, systematically evaluated application of a multiscale ERA5–WRF–PALM framework to a real typhoon case at 30 m resolution in a tropical coastal city. These findings clarify typhoon–city interactions, quantify morphological regulation of extreme winds, and support risk assessment, urban planning, and wind-resilient design in coastal megacities.

Long-term wind speed changes over the Yangtze River waterway have critical implications for inland shipping efficiency, emission dispersion, and renewable energy potential. This study utilizes a high-resolution 5 km gridded reanalysis dataset spanning 1979–2018 to conduct a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of surface wind climatology, variability, and trends along China’s primary inland waterway. A pivotal regime shift was identified around 2000, marking a transition from terrestrial stilling to a recovery phase characterized by wind speed intensification. Multiple change-point detection algorithms consistently identify 2000 as a pivotal turning point, marking a transition from the late 20th century “terrestrial stilling” to a recovery phase characterized by wind speed intensification. Post-2000 trends reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity: the upstream section exhibits sustained strengthening (+0.02 m/s per decade, p = 0.03), the midstream shows weak or non-significant trends with localized afternoon stilling in complex terrain (−0.08 m/s per decade), while the downstream coastal zone demonstrates robust intensification exceeding +0.10 m/s per decade during spring–autumn daytime hours. Three distinct wind regimes emerge along the 3000 km corridor: a high-energy maritime-influenced downstream sector (annual means > 3.9 m/s, diurnal peaks > 6.0 m/s) dominated by sea breeze circulation, a transitional midstream zone (2.3–2.7 m/s) exhibiting bimodal spatial structure and unique summer-afternoon thermal enhancement, and a topographically suppressed upstream region ( 0.60), with distinct seasonal phase-locking between baroclinic spring dynamics and monsoon-thermal summer forcing. These findings establish a comprehensive, fine-scale climatological baseline essential for optimizing pollutant dispersion modeling, and evaluating wind-assisted propulsion feasibility to support shipping decarbonization goals along the Yangtze Waterway.

Wind fields on tropical islands are among the most complex systems in atmospheric science, simultaneously influenced by large-scale monsoons, tropical cyclones, local sea-land circulation, and island topography. These interactions result in extremely complex responses to climate change, posing significant challenges for detailed assessment. This study examines how multi-scale processes have shaped the long-term evolution of the near-surface wind speed over Hainan, China’s largest tropical island. We developed a new high-resolution (5 km, hourly) regional climate reanalysis spanning 1961–2022, based on the WRF model and ERA5 data. Our analysis reveals three key findings: First, the long-term trend of wind speed over Hainan exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, characterized by “coastal stilling and inland strengthening.” Wind speeds in coastal areas have decreased by −0.03 to −0.09 m/s per decade, while those in the mountainous interior have paradoxically increased by up to +0.06 m/s per decade. This pattern arises from the interaction between the weakening East Asian Winter Monsoon and the island’s complex terrain. Second, the frequency of extreme wind events has undergone seasonal reorganization: days with strong winds linked to the winter monsoon have significantly decreased (−0.214 days per decade), whereas days linked to warm-season tropical cyclones have increased (+0.097 days per decade), indicating asynchronous evolution of climate extremes. Third, the risk from 100-year extreme wind events is undergoing geographical redistribution, shifting from the coast to the mountainous interior (with an increase of 0.4–0.7 m/s in inland areas), posing a direct challenge to existing engineering design standards. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that local topography can significantly influence large-scale climate change signals, underscoring the critical role of high-resolution modeling in understanding the climate response of such complex systems.

Degree days are outdoor-temperature indicators relevant to heating and cooling. We compare land-area, fixed 2023 population raster, and fixed 2015 GDP raster summaries; no measures observed building energy use. Using daily CN05.1 temperature for 15,247 Chinese land cells during 1961–2022, we quantify Tmin/Tmax trends, HDD/CDD changes, sensitivity to degree-day bases and periods, and spatially dependent uncertainty. Area-weighted Tmin warmed at 0.0398 °C yr⁻¹ (95% bootstrap CI: 0.0357–0.0438), faster than Tmax at 0.0245 °C yr⁻¹ (0.0189–0.0300); the Tmin-minus-Tmax trend was positive over 79.5% of weighted area after FDR control. Between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, HDD18 declined from 4714.6 to 4432.8 °C d, whereas CDD26 increased from 29.1 to 37.3 °C d. CDD26 growth was spatially heterogeneous and FDR-significant over 38.5% of weighted area, while HDD18 decline was widespread. The cooling-share metric R increased from 0.0197 to 0.0264, but R > 0.10 occupied only 5.02% and 6.96% of baseline and recent weighted area, respectively. The signs of national HDD retreat and CDD growth persisted across nine base-temperature combinations and a 1993–2022 recent-window sensitivity. A four-group k-medoids synthesis was stable under 1000 spatial-block bootstrap refits (median ARI 0.874). The unadjusted Tmin-minus-Tmax trend was associated with ΔHDD18 (Pearson’s r = −0.640) but was near zero for ΔCDD26 (r = −0.037); after controlling for the TM trend, both partial associations were near zero. Tmin-dominant warming is therefore interpreted as climatic context rather than an independent explanation for either index. The comparison with GB 50176-2016 identifies correspondence and mismatch with its temperature-based design-climate concepts. China thus shows a robust heating-side retreat alongside geographically differentiated cooling growth. Under fixed 2023 population and 2015 GDP raster distributions, HDD18 changed by −206.9/−217.6 °C d and CDD26 by +20.9/+26.1 °C d, showing that magnitude depends on the spatial denominator.