With global warming, tropical islands, as sensitive areas to climate change, exhibit new and significant temperature variation characteristics. Using the high-resolution Hainan Island Regional Reanalysis (HNR) dataset and multi-source data, this study analyzes temperature changes on Hainan Island from 1900 to 2022, focusing on spatiotemporal trends, diurnal patterns, and probability distribution shifts. The findings reveal significant periodic temperature changes: weak warming (0.02–0.08 °C/decade) from 1900 to 1949, a temperature hiatus from 1950 to 1979, and accelerated warming (0.14–0.28 °C/decade) from 1979 to 2022. Coastal plains (0.11 °C/decade) warm faster than inland mountains (0.08 °C/decade), reflecting oceanic and topographic effects. Diurnal temperature variations show topographic dependence, with a maximum range (8–9 °C) in the north during the warm season, and a southwest–northeast gradient in the cold season. Probability density function analysis indicates that the curves for transitional and cold seasons show a noticeable widening and rightward shift, reflecting the increasing frequency of extreme temperature events under the trend of temperature rise. The study also finds that the occurrence time of daily maximum temperature over coastal plains is advancing (−0.05 to −0.1 h/decade). This study fills gaps in understanding tropical island climate responses under global warming and provides new insights into temperature changes over Hainan Island.

Litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is a pillar of the tropical agricultural economy in southern China, yet its production faces increasing instability due to climate change. Traditional agronomic models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear interactions between meteorological drivers and yield formation in perennial fruit trees. To address this challenge, the study constructed a yield prediction framework using an optimized Random Forest (RF) model integrated with interpretable machine learning (SHAP), based on a comprehensive dataset from 17 major production regions in Hainan Province (2000–2022). The model demonstrated robust predictive capability at the provincial scale (R² = 0.564, RMSE = 2.1 t/ha) and high consistency across regions (R² ranging from 0.51 to 0.94). Feature importance analysis revealed that heat accumulation (specifically growing degree days above 20 °C) is the dominant driver, explaining over 85% of yield variability. Crucially, scenario simulations uncovered asymmetric climate risks across phenological stages: while moderate warming generally enhances yield by promoting vegetative growth and ripening, it acts as a stressor during the Fruit Development stage, where temperatures exceeding 26 °C trigger yield decline. Furthermore, the yield penalty for drought during Flowering (−8.09%) far outweighed the marginal benefits of surplus rainfall, identifying this window as critically sensitive to water deficits. These findings underscore the necessity of phenology-aligned adaptation strategies—specifically, securing irrigation during flowering and deploying cooling interventions during fruit development—providing a data-driven basis for climate-smart management in tropical agriculture.

About 16% of typhoons making landfall in China strike Hainan Island, where near-surface extreme winds in dense urban areas exhibit a strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity that is difficult to capture with current observations and mesoscale models. Focusing on Haikou during Super Typhoon Yagi (2024)—the strongest autumn typhoon to hit China since 1949—we developed a multiscale ERA5–WRF–PALM framework to conduct 30 m resolution large-eddy simulations. PALM results are in reasonable agreement with most of the five automatic weather stations, while performance is weaker at the most sheltered park site. Mean near-surface wind speeds increased by 20–50% relative to normal conditions, showing a coastal–urban gradient: maps of weighted cumulative exposure to strong winds (≥Beaufort force 8) show much longer and more intense events along open coasts than within built-up urban cores. Urban morphology exerted nonlinear effects: wind speeds followed a U-shaped relation with both the open-space ratio and mean building height, with suppression zones at ~0.5–0.7 openness and ~20–40 m height, while clusters of super-tall buildings induced Venturi-like acceleration of 2–3 m s⁻¹. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed banded swaths of high winds, with open areas and islands sustaining longer, broader extremes, and dense street grids experiencing shorter, localized events. Methodologically, this study provides a rare, systematically evaluated application of a multiscale ERA5–WRF–PALM framework to a real typhoon case at 30 m resolution in a tropical coastal city. These findings clarify typhoon–city interactions, quantify morphological regulation of extreme winds, and support risk assessment, urban planning, and wind-resilient design in coastal megacities.

Wind fields on tropical islands are among the most complex systems in atmospheric science, simultaneously influenced by large-scale monsoons, tropical cyclones, local sea-land circulation, and island topography. These interactions result in extremely complex responses to climate change, posing significant challenges for detailed assessment. This study examines how multi-scale processes have shaped the long-term evolution of the near-surface wind speed over Hainan, China’s largest tropical island. We developed a new high-resolution (5 km, hourly) regional climate reanalysis spanning 1961–2022, based on the WRF model and ERA5 data. Our analysis reveals three key findings: First, the long-term trend of wind speed over Hainan exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, characterized by “coastal stilling and inland strengthening.” Wind speeds in coastal areas have decreased by −0.03 to −0.09 m/s per decade, while those in the mountainous interior have paradoxically increased by up to +0.06 m/s per decade. This pattern arises from the interaction between the weakening East Asian Winter Monsoon and the island’s complex terrain. Second, the frequency of extreme wind events has undergone seasonal reorganization: days with strong winds linked to the winter monsoon have significantly decreased (−0.214 days per decade), whereas days linked to warm-season tropical cyclones have increased (+0.097 days per decade), indicating asynchronous evolution of climate extremes. Third, the risk from 100-year extreme wind events is undergoing geographical redistribution, shifting from the coast to the mountainous interior (with an increase of 0.4–0.7 m/s in inland areas), posing a direct challenge to existing engineering design standards. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that local topography can significantly influence large-scale climate change signals, underscoring the critical role of high-resolution modeling in understanding the climate response of such complex systems.

Long-term wind speed changes over the Yangtze River waterway have critical implications for inland shipping efficiency, emission dispersion, and renewable energy potential. This study utilizes a high-resolution 5 km gridded reanalysis dataset spanning 1979–2018 to conduct a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of surface wind climatology, variability, and trends along China’s primary inland waterway. A pivotal regime shift was identified around 2000, marking a transition from terrestrial stilling to a recovery phase characterized by wind speed intensification. Multiple change-point detection algorithms consistently identify 2000 as a pivotal turning point, marking a transition from the late 20th century “terrestrial stilling” to a recovery phase characterized by wind speed intensification. Post-2000 trends reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity: the upstream section exhibits sustained strengthening (+0.02 m/s per decade, p = 0.03), the midstream shows weak or non-significant trends with localized afternoon stilling in complex terrain (−0.08 m/s per decade), while the downstream coastal zone demonstrates robust intensification exceeding +0.10 m/s per decade during spring–autumn daytime hours. Three distinct wind regimes emerge along the 3000 km corridor: a high-energy maritime-influenced downstream sector (annual means > 3.9 m/s, diurnal peaks > 6.0 m/s) dominated by sea breeze circulation, a transitional midstream zone (2.3–2.7 m/s) exhibiting bimodal spatial structure and unique summer-afternoon thermal enhancement, and a topographically suppressed upstream region ( 0.60), with distinct seasonal phase-locking between baroclinic spring dynamics and monsoon-thermal summer forcing. These findings establish a comprehensive, fine-scale climatological baseline essential for optimizing pollutant dispersion modeling, and evaluating wind-assisted propulsion feasibility to support shipping decarbonization goals along the Yangtze Waterway.

Regional 10 m wind-speed products extend coverage beyond sparse station networks, but their errors vary with wind regime and location. This study evaluates a station-trained LightGBM correction of a 5 km WRF/HNR wind-speed product over Hainan Island. Raw and corrected fields were collocated with stations using a four-neighbour inverse-distance operator. A spatially separated 2022 holdout retained 67 stations after five coordinate-overlap exclusions. Across 582,610 common hourly pairs, corrected RMSE decreased from 3.198 to 1.211 m s⁻¹ and Pearson R increased from 0.368 to 0.651. The paired RMSE reduction was 1.986 m s⁻¹ [95% CI 1.839, 2.122]. Improvement was largest below 3.4 m s⁻¹ (2.203 m s⁻¹) and remained positive for 3.4–7.9 m s⁻¹ (0.566 m s⁻¹). In contrast, corrected RMSE increased by 0.990 m s⁻¹ for 8.0–10.7 m s⁻¹ and by 1.656 m s⁻¹ for ≥10.8 m s⁻¹. A time-only adjustment reduced pooled RMSE to 1.870 m s⁻¹ but also degraded the two upper strata. The 2016–2022 maps show a lower corrected product climatology, with a mean corrected-minus-raw increment of −2.273 m s⁻¹ across the Hainan buffer. Temporal partitions and AWS-selected station groups show variation across season, time of day, and setting. The correction reduces station-sampled errors for light-to-moderate wind speeds; it changes speed magnitude while retaining the raw-product wind direction.