Modeling the global markets is complicated due to the existence of uncertainty in the information available. In addition, the lithium supply chain presents a complex network due to interconnections that it presents and the interdependencies among its elements. This complex supply chain has one large market, electric vehicles (EVs). EV production is increasing the global demand for lithium; in terms of the lithium supply chain, an EV requires lithium-ion batteries, and lithium-ion batteries require lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Realistically, the mass balance in the global lithium supply chain involves more elements and more markets, and together with the assortment of databases in the literature, make the modeling through deterministic models difficult. Modeling the global supply chain under uncertainty could facilitate an assessment of the lithium supply chain between production and demand, and therefore could help to determine the distribution of materials for identifying the variables with the highest importance in an undersupply scenario. In the literature, deterministic models are commonly used to model the lithium supply chain but do not simultaneously consider the variation of data among databases for the lithium supply chain. This study performs stochastic modeling of the lithium supply chain by combining a material flow analysis with an uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis. The combination of these methods evaluates an undersupply scenario. The stochastic model simulations allow a comparison between the known demand and the supply calculated under uncertainty, in order to identify the most important variables affecting lithium distribution. The dynamic simulations show that the most probable scenario is one where supply does not cover the increasing demand, and the stochastic modeling classifies the variables by their importance and sensibility. In conclusion, the most important variables in a scenario of EV undersupply are the lithium hydroxide produced from lithium carbonate, the lithium hydroxide produced from solid rock, and the production of traditional batteries. The global sensitivity analysis indicates that the critical variables which affect the uncertainty in EV production change with time.

Background: The production of lithium is growing continuously, and ensuring its stable supply is crucial for the growth of global economy. Therefore, to avoid a potential supply risk, it is necessary to determine the requirements for the implementation of current and planned lithium mining projects in order to meet the forecasted demand of lithium. Objective: In this paper, the capability of global lithium production to meet the uncertain, high or low level, demand by 2025, is analyzed. Methods: The global lithium supply is simulated considering three alternatives: no new projects in the portfolio, committed projects, and uncommitted projects. Two scenarios for estimating the growth rate of lithium production in the future are analyzed: a regular growth rate and a growth rate assuming the use in full capacity of lithium production by major suppliers. Results: The results show that the total capacity of production covers the low-level demand. However, it is not enough to cover the high-level demand for lithium. Therefore, new projects are necessary. On the other hand, results considering all the possible projects show that the demand is exceeded, which suggests that intermediate scenarios could cover the demand by 100%. Conclusion: It is expected that a low-carbon economy may be projected soon, and assuming the high-level demand of lithium, then a combination of committed projects and uncommitted projects should be considered.

One of the main challenges of seawater desalination is a large volume of waste brine production that is commonly discharged into the sea and may threaten the marine ecosystem. This is critical in regions where conventional water resources are scarce and desalinated seawater is an alternative to meet water demand. Especially in regions where the mining industry is a key player in the economic development. The novelty of this research consists in the determination of the potential use of waste brine, discharged from the reverse osmosis process, as a source of industrial water in copper mining industry. To enable the waste brine applicability, there should be reduced calcium and magnesium ions concentration for improving copper recovery in the froth flotation process. The flotation tests were conducted in a batch cell with synthetic minerals composed of chalcopyrite, kaolinite, and quartz using different water qualities. The results showed that treated waste brine significantly improved copper recovery compared to untreated waste brine and seawater. Similar copper recovery was achieved when flotation test was performed with tap water and treated waste brine. Therefore, treated waste brine could provide a suitable water quality required in the froth flotation process as an alternative non-conventional water resource.