Understanding the effects of socio-ecological shocks on land use/land cover (LULC) change is essential for developing land management strategies and for reducing adverse environmental pressures. Our study examines the impacts of the armed conflict in Syria, which began in mid-2011, and the related social and economic crisis on LULC between 2010 and 2018. We used remote sensing for change detection by applying a supervised maximum likelihood classification to Landsat images of the three target years 2010, 2014, and 2018. Based on the computed extent of our LULC classes and accuracy assessment, we calculated area-adjusted estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Our classification achieved an overall accuracy of 86.4%. Compared to 2010, we found an increase in spatial extent for bare areas (40,011 km2), forests (2576 km2), and urban and peri-urban areas (3560 km2), whereas rangelands (37,005 km2) and cultivated areas (9425 km2) decreased by 2018. It is not possible to determine whether the changes in LULC in Syria will be permanent or temporary. Natural conditions such as climate fluctuations had an impact on the uses of the natural environment and cultivated areas during the study period, especially in regions suffering from water stress. Although seasonal precipitation patterns and temperature affect LULC change, however, we could not identify a prevailing climate trend towards more drought-prone conditions. Our analysis focuses on (potential) direct and indirect implications of the Syrian conflict on LULC change, which most notably occurred between 2014 and 2018. Conflict-related main drivers were human activities and demographic changes, which are mainly attributable to large-scale population displacement, military operations, concomitant socio-economic status, and control of local resources. As the study provides quantitative and qualitative information on the dynamics of LULC changes in Syria, it may serve as a framework for further relevant conflict-related research and support planning, management practices, and sustainable development.
In this study, a knowledge-based fuzzy classification method was used to classify possible soil-landforms in urban areas based on analysis of morphometric parameters (terrain attributes) derived from digital elevation models (DEMs). A case study in the city area of Berlin was used to compare two different resolution DEMs in terms of their potential to find a specific relationship between landforms, soil types and the suitability of these DEMs for soil mapping. Almost all the topographic parameters were obtained from high-resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-DEM (1 m) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER)-DEM (30 m), which were used as thresholds for the classification of landforms in the selected study area with a total area of about 39.40 km2. The accuracy of both classifications was evaluated by comparing ground point samples as ground truth data with the classification results. The LiDAR-DEM based classification has shown promising results for classification of landforms into geomorphological (sub)categories in urban areas. This is indicated by an acceptable overall accuracy of 93%. While the classification based on ASTER-DEM showed an accuracy of 70%. The coarser ASTER-DEM based classification requires additional and more detailed information directly related to soil-forming factors to extract geomorphological parameters. The importance of using LiDAR-DEM classification was particularly evident when classifying landforms that have narrow spatial extent such as embankments and channel banks or when determining the general accuracy of landform boundaries such as crests and flat lands. However, this LiDAR-DEM classification has shown that there are categories of landforms that received a large proportion of the misclassifications such as terraced land and steep embankments in other parts of the study area due to the increased distance from the major rivers and the complex nature of these landforms. In contrast, the results of the ASTER-DEM based classification have shown that the ASTER-DEM cannot deal with small-scale spatial variation of soil and landforms due to the increasing human impacts on landscapes in urban areas. The application of the approach used to extract terrain parameters from the LiDAR-DEM and their use in classification of landforms has shown that it can support soil surveys that require a lot of time and resources for traditional soil mapping.
In Syria, 76% of the forests are located in the Syrian coast region. This region is witnessing a rapid depletion of forest cover during the conflict that broke out in mid-2011. To date, there have been no studies providing accurate, reliable, and comprehensive data on the qualitative and quantitative aspects of forest change dynamics and the underlying drivers behind this change. In this study, changes in the dynamics of forest cover and its density between 2010 and 2020 were detected and analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat images. This study also analyzed the relationship between changes in forest cover and selected physical and socio-demographic variables associated with the drivers of change. The results revealed that the study area witnessed a significant decrease in the total forest area (31,116.0 ha, 24.3%) accompanied by a considerable decrease in density, as the area of dense forests decreased by 11,778.0 ha (9.2%) between 2010 and 2020. The change in forest cover was driven by a variety of different factors related to the conflict. The main drivers were changes in economic and social activities, extensive exploitation of forest resources, frequent forest fires, and weakness of state institutions in managing natural resources and environmental development. Forest loss was also linked to the expansion of cultivated area, increase in population and urban area. Fluctuating climatic conditions are not a major driver of forest cover dynamics in the study area. This decrease in forest area and density reflects sharp shifts in the natural environment during the study period. In the foreseeable future, it is not possible to determine whether the changes in forest cover and its density will be permanent or temporary. Monitoring changes in forest cover and understanding the driving forces behind this change provides quantitative and qualitative information to improve planning and decision-making. The results of this study may draw the attention of decision-makers to take immediate actions and identify areas of initial intervention to protect current the forests of the Syrian coast region from loss and degradation, as well as develop policies for the sustainable management of forest resources in the long term.
Monitoring the impact of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) is of great importance in environmental and urban studies. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the dynamics of LULC and its impact on the spatiotemporal variation of the LST in the two largest urban cities in Syria, Damascus, and Aleppo. To achieve this, LULC changes, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and LST were calculated from multi-temporal Landsat data for the period 2010 to 2018. The study revealed significant changes in LULC, which were represented by a decrease in agricultural land and green areas and an increase in bare areas in both cities. In addition, built-up areas decreased in Aleppo and increased in Damascus during the study period. The temporal and spatial variation of the LST and its distribution pattern was closely related to the effect of changes in LULC as well as to land use conditions in each city. This effect was greater in Aleppo than in Damascus, where Aleppo recorded a higher increase in the mean LST, by about 2 °C, than in Damascus, where it was associated with greater degradation and loss of vegetation cover. In general, there was an increasing trend in the minimum and maximum LST as well as an increasing trend in the mean LST in both cities. The negative linear relationship between LST and NDVI confirms that vegetation cover can help reduce LST in both cities. This study can draw the attention of relevant departments to pay more attention to mitigating the negative impact of LULC changes in order to limit the increase in LST.
The development of E-government systems faces many challenges and problems including interoperability, integration, complexity and lack of standards. Enterprise Architecture is considered to be an efficient tool to overcome these challenges; however one of the important steps that must to be taken is to choose an appropriate Enterprise Architecture Framework (EAF) which can be considered as a conceptual structure of what the enterprise architecture should contain and how to create it. There are many frameworks proposed but they differ in content and target audience. In this paper we present an evaluation of four widespread enterprise architecture frameworks. We introduced criteria to evaluate the frameworks from two perspectives, One based on non-functional requirements critical for the success of e-government systems and how those requirements addressed by EAFs, the second perspective based on development issues. Finally we have concluded and suggested a future work.
Climate change is expected to alter hydro-climatic conditions and water availability across Central Europe, with important implications for vegetation and land-use systems. This study assesses projected changes in climatic water balance (CWB), hydro-climatic stress indicators, and their relationship with root-zone soil moisture in Brandenburg, Germany. Four regional climate model realizations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were analyzed for 2006–2100. Air temperature (tas), precipitation (pr), reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and CWB were evaluated together with indicators describing drought frequency, water-deficit magnitude, aridity, and standardized CWB anomalies. All model realizations project substantial warming, exceeding +2 °C under RCP8.5 by the late century. While annual precipitation remains relatively stable, vegetation-period precipitation decreases and evaporative demand increases, resulting in increasingly negative growing-season CWB. Projected vegetation-period CWB changes range from −22 to −139 mm between near-future and far-future periods. Hydro-climatic stress indicators consistently show increasing seasonal water limitation. Comparisons between CWB and root-zone soil moisture reveal significant positive relationships (p < 0.001), although explanatory power remains low (R2 < 0.14). Despite differences in the magnitude of projected changes, all model realizations agree on the direction of change, indicating a robust signal of increasing growing-season drying. These findings highlight the importance of seasonal hydro-climatic indicators for assessing future drought risk and ecosystem water availability.