Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km² to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

A genetic study of the European tree frog, Hyla arborea, in Denmark was undertaken to examine the population structure on mainland Jutland and the island of Lolland after a period of reduction in suitable habitat and population sizes. The two regions have experienced the same rate of habitat loss but fragmentation has been more severe on Lolland. Genetic variation based on 12 polymorphic DNA microsatellites was analysed in 494 tree frogs sampled from two ponds in Jutland and 10 ponds on Lolland. A significant overall deviation from Hardy–Weinberg expectations could be attributed to three ponds, all on Lolland. This was most probably caused by an inbreeding effect reducing fitness, which was supported by the observed significant negative correlation between larva survival and mean F_IS value and mean individual inbreeding coefficient. A significant reduction in genetic variation (bottleneck) was detected in most of the ponds on Lolland. Population–structure analysis suggested the existence of at least 11 genetically different populations, corresponding to most of the sampled population units. The results indicated that the populations were unique genetic units and could be used to illustrate the migration pattern between newly established ponds arisen either by natural colonization of tree frogs or by artificial introduction. A high degree of pond fidelity in the tree frogs was suggested. A severe fragmentation process reducing population size and fitness within some of the populations probably caused the significant reduction in genetic variation of tree frog populations on Lolland.

Flower visiting insects provide a vitally important pollination service for many crops and wild plants. Recent decline of pollinating insects due to anthropogenic modification of habitats and climate, in particular from 1950's onwards, is a major and widespread concern. However, few studies document the extent of declines in species diversity, and no studies have previously quantified local abundance declines. We here make a quantitative assessment of recent historical changes in bumblebee assemblages by comparing contemporary and historical survey data. We take advantage of detailed, quantitative historical survey data from the 1930's on bumblebee (Bombus spp.) abundances and species composition in red clover (Trifolium pratense) fields, an important floral resource and an attractant of all bumblebee species. We used the historical survey data as a pre-industrialization baseline, and repeated the same sampling protocol at nearly the same localities at present, hence setting up a historical experiment. We detected historical changes in abundances (bees/m²) of both workers (the “pollinatory units”) and queens (effective population size), in addition to species composition. In particular, long-tongued bumblebee species showed consistent and dramatic declines in species richness and abundances throughout the flowering season of red clover, while short-tongued species were largely unaffected. Of 12 Bombus species observed in the 1930's, five species were not observed at present. The latter were all long-tongued, late-emerging species. Because bumblebees are important pollinators, historical changes in local bumblebee assemblages are expected to severely affect plant reproduction, in particular long-tubed species, which are pollinated by long-tongued bumblebees.