Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.

The Sea‐level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin‐up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea‐level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three‐dimensional thermomechanical ice‐sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low‐latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low‐surface‐slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub‐shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub‐shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding‐zone processes, ocean‐ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

The use of wind energy reduces our greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a generic power-law relationship between global warming and the usable wind energy (Betz’s law). The power law index ($\sim 4$ , region dependent) is then determined using simulated atmospheric parameters from eight global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models (CGCMs). It is found that the power-law relationship holds across all eight climate models and also is time scale independent. Reduction of wind power scales with the degree of warming according to a generic power-law relationship. Thus, the earlier we switch to clean energy, and thereby decrease the global climate warming trend, the more cost-effective will be the harnessing of wind energy. This relationship is an area-averaged consequence of the reduced poleward temperature gradient as the climate warms during the 21st Century; it does not imply spatial uniformity over a region of interest.

On 8 August 2010 in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, a rainstorm‐triggered debris flow devastated the small county of Zhouqu. A modeling study, using a new multiple‐phase scalable and extensible geofluid model, suggests that the cause is an intersection of several events. These were a heavy rainstorm, not necessarily the result of global warming, which triggered the landslide and followed a drought that created surface cracks and crevasses; the geology of the region, notably the loess covering heavily weathered surface rock; and the bedrock damage, that deepened the surface crevasses inflicted by the 7.9 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008. Deforestation and topsoil erosion were critical contributors to the massive size of the debris flow. The modeling results underscore the urgency for a high‐priority program of revegetation of Zhouqu County, without which the region will remain exposed to future disastrous, “progressive bulking” type landslides. Debris flows are more predictable types of landslides; consequently, a series of “pseudo climate change” model experiments of future extreme precipitation events are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, forced by temperature perturbations from an ensemble of climate models. In a possibly future warmer climate, extreme precipitation events are anticipated to be more severe, and this study has identified an atmospheric blocking pattern that might produce future extreme precipitation events in the peri‐Tibetan Plateau (TP) area (located to the northeast of the TP). Importantly, observations from gravity field measuring satellites indicate that the larger geological environment of this region also is becoming increasingly unstable.