It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.

In a context of climate change, precipitation patterns show substantial disturbances and the occurrence of precipitation anomalies has tended to increase in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin. These anomalies are likely influencing vegetation dynamics and ecosystem stability. This paper aims to have a comprehensive understanding of vegetation growth response towards the precipitation pattern in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin. The study used NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data and mapped precipitation datasets from 1982 to 2011. NDVI and precipitation show a similar spatial distribution: they decrease from the southeast coast to the northwest inland. Regions with sparse vegetation are mainly distributed in arid and semi-arid areas or densely-populated areas. Vegetation coverage and the regular precipitation pattern show a positive correlation (61.6% of the whole region), while the correlation between vegetation coverage and precipitation anomalies is negative (62.7% for rainless days and 60.3% for rainstorm days). The clustering result shows that abundant vegetation is mainly situated in high precipitation or low anomaly areas. On the contrary, the degraded regions are mainly distributed in low precipitation or high anomaly areas. However, some special regions, mainly located in the Three North Shelterbelt Program region, the Tibetan Plateau, and other regions along the rivers, present improved vegetation cover when precipitation decreases or extreme events occur.

Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

This study investigates spatial characteristics of annual and decadal precipitation in the Huaihe River basin. Daily precipitation data, obtained from meteorological gauges, are analyzed for a 51-year period, from 1961 to 2011. Precipitation is analyzed in grids (5 km²) with respect to temporal variability. The spatial distribution and intensity of annual rainfall (mm/10 year), determined by the linear regression method, reveals a slight increase of 3 mm/10 year over the basin. However, the trend did not present a significant change at 95% significance level in the most of basin. Precipitation is mostly increasing for each ten-year periods during the total 51 years. The annual precipitation randomicity was calculated from the non-uniform coefficient Cv (coefficient of variation) test and showed a significant non-uniform spatial distribution, indicating that randomicity of annual rainfall was the moderate variability. The Pettitt test determined that the abrupt change points occurred mainly in 1965, 1975 and 2002. Wavelet analysis showed that cyclic variations appeared almost every 5 to 10 years, accounting for 36% of the basin area. Meanwhile, these cycles tended to be delimited by the abrupt change points. This study aims to provide insights for water resources management, mitigation of climate change effects and water supply in the Huaihe River basin and surrounding watersheds.