The global population aging poses new challenges in allocating care facilities for the elderly. This demographic trend also influences economic development and the quality of urban life. However, current research focuses on the supply of elderly care facilities and primarily uses administrative divisions as a scale, resulting in low spatiotemporal sensitivity in evaluating the spatial equilibrium of elderly care facilities (SEECF). The relationship between the SEECF and economic development is not clear. In response to these problems, we proposed a spatial equilibrium model of elderly care facilities with high spatiotemporal sensitivity (SEM-HSTS) and explored the spatiotemporal associations between the SEECF and economic development. Considering the spatial accessibility rate of elderly care services (SARecs) and the spatiotemporal supply–demand ratio for elderly care services (STSDRecs), two types of supply–demand relationship factors were constructed. Then, a spatiotemporal accessibility of medical services (STAms) factor was obtained based on a modified two-step floating catchment area (M2SFCA) method. On this basis, the SEM-HSTS was constructed based on the theory of coordinated development. Further, a panel threshold model was employed to evaluate the influence relationships among population aging, SEECF, and gross domestic product (GDP) in different phases. Finally, spatial autocorrelation and Geodetector explored the spatial associations between SEECF and GDP across complex urban land use categories (ULUC). The experimental results at a 100-m grid scale showed that the SEM-HSTS exhibited higher spatiotemporal heterogeneity than the classical accessibility method, with elevated spatiotemporal sensitivity. Effectively identified various spatial imbalances, such as undersupply and resource waste. The panel model captured phased relationship changes, showing that SEECF had inhibitory and promotional effects on GDP in pre- and post-aging societies, with stronger effects as balance approached. Moreover, the combined interaction of ULUC and GDP had a more significant influence on SEECF than any individual factor, with GDP exerting a more significant influence. This study provides an empirical basis for creating resource-efficient elderly care facility systems and optimizing layouts.

Population activity drives urban development, and high-spatiotemporal-resolution population distribution provides critical insights for refined urban management and social services. However, mixed population activity patterns and spatial heterogeneity make simultaneous high-temporal- and -spatial-resolution estimation difficult. Therefore, we propose the High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Population Distribution Estimation Based on the Strong and Weak Perception of Population Activity Patterns (SWPP-HSTPE) method to estimate hourly population distribution at the building scale. During the weak-perception period, we construct a Modified Dual-Environment Feature Fusion model using building features within small-scale grids to estimate stable nighttime populations. During the strong-perception period, we incorporate activity characteristics of weakly perceived activity populations (minors and older people). Then, the Self-Organizing Map algorithm and spatial environment function purity are used to decompose mixed patterns of strongly perceived activity populations (young and middle-aged) and to extract fundamental patterns, combined with building types, for population calculation. Results demonstrated that the SWPP-HSTPE method achieved high-spatiotemporal-resolution population distribution estimation. During the weak-perception period, the estimated population correlated strongly with actual household counts (r = 0.72) and outperformed WorldPop and GHS-POP by 0.157 and 0.133, respectively. During the strong-perception period, the SWPP-HSTPE model achieves a correlation with hourly population estimates that is approximately 4% higher than that of the baseline model, while reducing estimation errors by nearly 2%. By jointly accounting for temporal dynamics and population activity patterns, this study provides valuable data support and methodological insights for fine-grained urban management.