Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO₂growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r²≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO₂growth rate and tropical land–surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO₂growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature–CO₂coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r²≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO₂growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh − NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature–CO₂coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle.

Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO₂ explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO₂ effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO₂, but this direct CO₂ effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO₂ was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO₂ concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

Assessing the seasonal patterns of the Amazon rainforests has been difficult because of the paucity of ground observations and persistent cloud cover over these forests obscuring optical remote sensing observations. Here, we use data from a new generation of geostationary satellites that carry the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to study the Amazon canopy. ABI is similar to the widely used polar orbiting sensor, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), but provides observations every 10–15 min. Our analysis of NDVI data collected over the Amazon during 2018–19 shows that ABI provides 21–35 times more cloud-free observations in a month than MODIS. The analyses show statistically significant changes in seasonality over 85% of Amazon forest pixels, an area about three times greater than previously reported using MODIS data. Though additional work is needed in converting the observed changes in seasonality into meaningful changes in canopy dynamics, our results highlight the potential of the new generation geostationary satellites to help us better understand tropical ecosystems, which has been a challenge with only polar orbiting satellites.

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre‐industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre‐industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m², and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy‐relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region‐specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GeoNEX is a collaborative project led by scientists from NASA, NOAA, and many other institutes around the world to generate Earth monitoring products using data streams from the latest Geostationary (GEO) sensors including the GOES-16/17 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), the Himawari-8/9 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), and more. An accurate and consistent product of the Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance and brightness temperature is the starting point in the scientific processing pipeline and has significant influences on the downstream products. This paper describes the main steps and the algorithms in generating the GeoNEX TOA products, starting from the conversion of digital numbers to physical quantities with the latest radiometric calibration information. We implement algorithms to detect and remove residual georegistration uncertainties automatically in both GOES and Himawari L1bdata, adjust the data for topographic relief, estimate the pixelwise data-acquisition time, and accurately calculate the solar illumination angles for each pixel in the domain at every time step. Finally, we reproject the TOA products to a globally tiled common grid in geographic coordinates in order to facilitate intercomparisons and/or synergies between the GeoNEX products and existing Earth observation datasets from polar-orbiting satellites.

Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade‐study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.