Promoting the coupled and coordinated development of new-type urbanization and rural revitalization is important for achieving high-quality and sustainable growth in China. This study follows a people-centered and coordinated development approach and is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It builds a comprehensive evaluation framework for the two systems and measures and interprets their coupling and coordination. On this basis, and under the background of China’s territorial spatial planning, the study draws implications for land and spatial governance. The core of the study is to answer the following questions: What are the spatiotemporal patterns of the coupling coordination level between new-type urbanization and rural revitalization in China from 2014 to 2023? How has the coordination of their development speed evolved? What are the main sources of regional differences? Which factors are the key drivers that promote coordinated development between the two systems? The main findings are as follows. (1) The national coupling coordination degree increases steadily. Spatially, there is a pattern of “eastern region leading, central and northeastern regions catching up, and western region showing internal divergence”. This pattern is consistent with differences in development intensity and accessibility across regions. (2) From 2019 to 2023, the coordination of development speed improved in most provinces. A few developed or special provinces show short-term mismatch, which may reflect timing gaps between land-use controls and the provision of public services. (3) Gaps between regions are the main source of overall differences, and there is a trend toward convergence. This is in line with interregional equalization and the narrowing of efficiency gaps. (4) Well-being of residents, social development, and digital innovation are the core driving forces. Digital inclusive finance and the intensity of parcel delivery services also provide important support. There are clear interaction effects among the driving factors, and these effects are stronger in areas where planning improves accessibility and reduces transaction costs.

The scientific evaluation of the coordinated development level of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is crucial for promoting the localization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study, based on the SDGs framework, utilizes data from 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2013 to 2023 to establish a five-dimensional evaluation index system, covering urban–rural integration (SDG 10), scientific and technological innovation (SDG 9), infrastructure (SDG 9.1), ecological environment (SDG 13/14/15), and public services (SDG 3/4/11). By applying the coupling coordination degree model, kernel density estimation, and the standard deviation ellipse method, the study systematically assesses the regional coordinated development level and its spatio-temporal evolution patterns. The findings reveal that from 2013 to 2023, the development indices of the five subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend, with significant disparities in growth rate and stability. The overall regional coordination degree continuously improved, and differences diminished, with the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree exhibiting a “polarization followed by an overall leap” pattern. The coupling coordination degree evolved in three stages: “imbalance in mutual feedback among elements, strengthening of coordination mechanisms, and deepening of policy innovation”, with spatial differentiation and clustered development coexisting. Spatially, the distribution center shifted through three phases: “policy-driven”, “market-regulated”, and “technology-led”, forming an axial reconstruction from northwest to southeast, ultimately establishing a multi-center coordinated development system.

Coordinated development between new-type urbanization and rural revitalization is important for sustainable urban–rural transformation and balanced regional development in China. Using panel data for 30 provincial-level units from 2014 to 2023, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution, dynamic transitions, and external drivers of the coupling coordination degree between the two systems. Spatial Markov chains and an interpretable machine-learning framework are used to identify neighborhood effects, nonlinear relationships, and interaction patterns. The results show four main findings. First, the coupling coordination degree increased over the study period, but clear spatial differences and clustering remained. This suggests that coordinated urban–rural development did not advance evenly across regions. Second, the evolution of coordination shows strong state dependence, and neighborhood context is closely related to transition probabilities. Provinces located in high-coordination neighborhoods were more likely to move to higher levels, while provinces in low-coordination neighborhoods were more likely to remain trapped at lower levels. Third, digital inclusive finance and fiscal self-sufficiency were the most important external factors. Both showed clear nonlinear patterns. Per capita electricity consumption and aging rate also showed heterogeneous relationships at different value ranges. Fourth, the interaction results suggest that higher coordination is more likely to emerge when digital finance, fiscal capacity, openness, human capital, and infrastructure improve together, rather than when only one factor expands on its own. The findings indicate that sustainable urban–rural transformation is shaped by spatial dependence, nonlinear changes, and context-specific factor combinations. Beyond their relevance for more targeted urban–rural coordination and place-based sustainability governance in China, these findings also provide a useful reference for other developing countries seeking to address similar urban–rural development challenges.