Promoting the coupled and coordinated development of new-type urbanization and rural revitalization is important for achieving high-quality and sustainable growth in China. This study follows a people-centered and coordinated development approach and is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It builds a comprehensive evaluation framework for the two systems and measures and interprets their coupling and coordination. On this basis, and under the background of China’s territorial spatial planning, the study draws implications for land and spatial governance. The core of the study is to answer the following questions: What are the spatiotemporal patterns of the coupling coordination level between new-type urbanization and rural revitalization in China from 2014 to 2023? How has the coordination of their development speed evolved? What are the main sources of regional differences? Which factors are the key drivers that promote coordinated development between the two systems? The main findings are as follows. (1) The national coupling coordination degree increases steadily. Spatially, there is a pattern of “eastern region leading, central and northeastern regions catching up, and western region showing internal divergence”. This pattern is consistent with differences in development intensity and accessibility across regions. (2) From 2019 to 2023, the coordination of development speed improved in most provinces. A few developed or special provinces show short-term mismatch, which may reflect timing gaps between land-use controls and the provision of public services. (3) Gaps between regions are the main source of overall differences, and there is a trend toward convergence. This is in line with interregional equalization and the narrowing of efficiency gaps. (4) Well-being of residents, social development, and digital innovation are the core driving forces. Digital inclusive finance and the intensity of parcel delivery services also provide important support. There are clear interaction effects among the driving factors, and these effects are stronger in areas where planning improves accessibility and reduces transaction costs.

Carbon balance capacity (CBC) and urban–rural integration (URI) represent two interconnected systems involving ecological sustainability and socioeconomic development. Understanding their interactions is essential for advancing low-carbon development, yet the spatial heterogeneity and directional relationships between these systems remain insufficiently explored. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2024, this study measures CBC by assessing the relative capacity of regional carbon absorption to balance carbon emissions and constructs URI as a composite index based on a five-dimensional indicator system covering population, economy, space, society, and ecology. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test are then applied to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics and directional relationships between CBC and URI. The results show that carbon emissions exhibit an increasingly pronounced “high East–low West” pattern, whereas carbon absorption maintains a relatively stable “high West–low East” distribution. Accordingly, CBC shows a contraction of high-value regions and increasing concentration of carbon balance advantages in ecologically endowed provinces. Meanwhile, URI has improved continuously, with spatial, ecological, and social dimensions becoming increasingly important, while economic integration remains relatively limited. Granger causality analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in CBC–URI interactions, with decoupling as the dominant pattern, while some regions exhibit development-related pressures or ecological constraints during urban–rural transformation. Positive interaction pathways, where urban–rural integration contributes to improvements in carbon balance capacity, are identified only in a limited number of regions, indicating diverse evolutionary pathways between urban–rural transformation and carbon balance capacity. This study further develops a typological framework and identifies differentiated development pathways toward more coordinated CBC–URI interactions, providing empirical evidence and policy insights for place-based low-carbon urban–rural transformation.