The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Disturbances alter biodiversity via their specific characteristics, including severity and extent in the landscape, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Biodiversity response to disturbance also depends on the community characteristics and habitat requirements of species. Untangling the mechanistic interplay of these factors has guided disturbance ecology for decades, generating mixed scientific evidence of biodiversity responses to disturbance. Understanding the impact of natural disturbances on biodiversity is increasingly important due to human‐induced changes in natural disturbance regimes. In many areas, major natural forest disturbances, such as wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks, are becoming more frequent, intense, severe, and widespread due to climate change and land‐use change. Conversely, the suppression of natural disturbances threatens disturbance‐dependent biota. Using a meta‐analytic approach, we analysed a global data set (with most sampling concentrated in temperate and boreal secondary forests) of species assemblages of 26 taxonomic groups, including plants, animals, and fungi collected from forests affected by wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks. The overall effect of natural disturbances on α‐diversity did not differ significantly from zero, but some taxonomic groups responded positively to disturbance, while others tended to respond negatively. Disturbance was beneficial for taxonomic groups preferring conditions associated with open canopies (e.g. hymenopterans and hoverflies), whereas ground‐dwelling groups and/or groups typically associated with shady conditions (e.g. epigeic lichens and mycorrhizal fungi) were more likely to be negatively impacted by disturbance. Across all taxonomic groups, the highest α‐diversity in disturbed forest patches occurred under moderate disturbance severity, i.e. with approximately 55% of trees killed by disturbance. We further extended our meta‐analysis by applying a unified diversity concept based on Hill numbers to estimate α‐diversity changes in different taxonomic groups across a gradient of disturbance severity measured at the stand scale and incorporating other disturbance features. We found that disturbance severity negatively affected diversity for Hill number q = 0 but not for q = 1 and q = 2, indicating that diversity–disturbance relationships are shaped by species relative abundances. Our synthesis of α‐diversity was extended by a synthesis of disturbance‐induced change in species assemblages, and revealed that disturbance changes the β‐diversity of multiple taxonomic groups, including some groups that were not affected at the α‐diversity level (birds and woody plants). Finally, we used mixed rarefaction/extrapolation to estimate biodiversity change as a function of the proportion of forests that were disturbed, i.e. the disturbance extent measured at the landscape scale. The comparison of intact and naturally disturbed forests revealed that both types of forests provide habitat for unique species assemblages, whereas species diversity in the mixture of disturbed and undisturbed forests peaked at intermediate values of disturbance extent in the simulated landscape. Hence, the relationship between α‐diversity and disturbance severity in disturbed forest stands was strikingly similar to the relationship between species richness and disturbance extent in a landscape consisting of both disturbed and undisturbed forest habitats. This result suggests that both moderate disturbance severity and moderate disturbance extent support the highest levels of biodiversity in contemporary forest landscapes.

I examined mitochondrial ND2 sequences in species of tits (genus Parus) to determine whether substitutions were neutral or under selection. Haplotype trees in these species are shallow and geographically unstructured, which could be a signature of recent demographic expansion or purifying selection. McDonald-Kreitman tests revealed a pattern of excess replacement polymorphisms for closely related taxa. Replacement substitutions tended to be less common in the basal parts of haplotype trees, suggesting that they are selected against over evolutionary time. Thus, the pattern of selection is consistent with a model of mildly deleterious haplotypes. To investigate the significance of this selection, the ND2 gene was subdivided into surface and transmembrane portions, and synonymous-non-synonymous sites, and F_ST-values (the amount of variance distributed among populations) computed for each. Among sampling localities in P.major, both partitions gave similar estimates of F_ST, which is consistent with demographic expansion as the cause of the shallow trees. In P.montanus, two localities contained high percentages of individuals that had a single replacement substitution in the transmembrane portion of the gene, which inflated F_ST-values relative to the surface sites. Thus, the interpretation of the genetic differentiation of these two sites could be either geographical isolation or selection. Given that the sole substitution causing the high F_ST-values was a replacement one, selection is implicated. However, this substitution occurred in only 2 of 12 localities, revealing that overall the phylogeographic pattern was not biased by selection, once the cause of the two high pairwise F_ST-comparisons was recognized. Investigators should consider the source of significant genetic heterogeneity within species, to determine if the variation is likely caused by demographic isolation or selection. However, it seems unlikely that most phylogeographic analyses are invalidated by the effects of natural selection.