Rice lodging is a major agricultural disaster that reduces yield and quality. Accurate lodging detection and causal analysis are essential for disaster mitigation and precision management. To overcome the limited coverage and low automation of conventional approaches, we propose MSR-LodfNet, an enhanced semantic-segmentation model driven by multi-scale remote-sensing imagery, enabling high-precision lodging mapping from regional to field scales. The study selected 13 state-owned farms in Jiansanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, and jointly used PlanetScope satellite images (3 m) and UAV images (0.2 m) to build an integrated workflow of “satellite macro-monitoring, UAV fine verification, and agronomic factor coupling analysis.” The model synergistically optimizes WFNet, DenseASPP multi-scale context enhancement, and Condensed Attention, markedly improving feature extraction and boundary recognition under multi-source imagery. Experimental results show that the model achieves mIoU 84.34% and mPA 93.31% on UAV images and mIoU 81.96% and mPA 90.63% on PlanetScope images, demonstrating excellent cross-scale adaptability and stability. Causal analysis shows that the high-EVI range is significantly positively correlated with lodging probability; its risk is about 6 times that of the low-EVI range, and the lodging probability of direct-seeded rice is about 2.56 times that of transplanted rice, indicating that it may be associated with a higher lodging risk. The results demonstrate that multi-scale remote sensing combined with agronomic parameters can effectively support the mechanism analysis of lodging disasters, providing a quantitative basis and technical reference for precision rice management and lodging-resistant breeding.

Accurately predicting crop yield and its spatiotemporal variability is crucial for precision agriculture. This study developed a prior knowledge-guided remote sensing yield estimation framework at Youyi Farm in China. Based on multi-source data from 2016 to 2025, a Yield-Formation Key Dataset (YFKD) was constructed by integrating Meteorological, Eco-physiological, Phenological, and Soil features. Combined with Boruta feature selection, MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), RF (Random Forest), and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) models were compared, and SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) was utilized for spatiotemporal driving force analysis. The results showed that the YFKD-XGBoost model achieved the optimal performance ($R^2=0.865$, RMSE = 1491 kg/ha), improving accuracy by up to 17.7% compared to the baseline model. Global SHAP analysis revealed that Soil Spectral Reflectance provided the highest contribution. Temporally, the period from late July to mid-September (especially mid-August) served as the critical monitoring window. Spatially, based on the area share of the dominant negative SHAP contributor, Meteorological Background was the most widespread limiting factor (34.8% of the constrained area), Soil Conditions constraints showed localized clustering (16.4%), while Phenological and Eco-physiological constraints dominated intra-field spatial differentiation. This study validated the feasibility of this framework for high-precision yield estimation and the analysis of yield formation driving factors under the constraints of a limited regional dataset (n = 233), providing reliable support for regional differentiated agricultural management.