The differential evolution algorithm is applied to solve the optimization problem to reconstruct the production function (inverse problem) for the spatial Solow mathematical model using additional measurements of the gross domestic product for the fixed points. Since the inverse problem is ill-posed the regularized differential evolution is applied. For getting the optimized solution of the inverse problem the differential evolution algorithm is paralleled to 32 kernels. Numerical results for different technological levels and errors in measured data are presented and discussed.
1 March 2023 in Journal of Applied and Industrial Mathematics
We propose an algorithm for modeling scenarios for newly diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The algorithm is based on treating incomplete epidemiological data and solving the inverse problem of reconstructing the parameters of the agent-based model (ABM) using the set of available epidemiological data. The main tool for constructing the ABM is the Covasim open library. In the event of a drastic change in the situation (appearance of a new strain, removal or introduction of restrictive measures, etc.), the model parameters are updated taking into account additional information for the previous month (online data assimilation). The inverse problem is solved by stochastic global optimization (of tree-structured Parzen estimators). As an example, we give two scenarios of COVID-19 propagation calculated on December 12, 2021 for the period up to January 20, 2022. The scenario that took into account the New Year holidays (published on December 12, 2021 on http://covid19-modeling.ru ) almost coincided with what happened in reality (the error was 0.2%).
1 January 2019 in International Journal of Mathematics and Physics
The study of the clinical and epidemiological features of tuberculosis combined with HIV infection (TB + HIV) is one of the priorities in the prevention of infectious diseases and is necessary to improve the quality of medical care for patients. So this article is devoted to the mathematical model of epidemiology, its’ investigation and analysis. The previous works showed what identifiability analysis is and considered methods of performing them, such as orthogonal method, eigenvalue method and etc., for more precise clarification of model parameters. However, the choice of solving the inverse problem to restore unknown parameters is playing a huge role. So here was showed the combination of two numerical algorithms, as stochastic method of simulating annealing to determine the region of the global minimum and gradient method to determine the inverse problem in a region, of solving the inverse problem that will help to create effective treatment plan for the elimination and treatment of the disease. Abstract . The study of the clinical and epidemiological features of tuberculosis combined with HIV infection (TB + HIV) is one of the priorities in the prevention of infectious diseases and is necessary to improve the quality of medical care for patients. So this article is devoted to the mathematical model of epidemiology, its’ investigation and analysis. The previous works showed what identifiability analysis is and considered methods of performing them, such as orthogonal method, eigenvalue method and etc., for more precise clarification of model parameters. However, the choice of solving the inverse problem to restore unknown parameters is playing a huge role. So here was showed the combination of two numerical algorithms, as stochastic method of simulating annealing to determine the region of the global minimum and gradient method to determine the inverse problem in a region, of solving the inverse problem that will help to create effective treatment plan for the elimination and treatment of the disease.