Digital twin (DT) technology is recognized for its transformative potential to enhance efficiency in the construction process. However, the full potential of DT in construction practices remains largely unrealised. Moreover, few studies explore how DT success factors affect efficiency improvement (EI), energy optimization (EO), and cost control (CC) in the context of economic strength (ES). The study applied a hybrid research method to examine the impact of key DT success factors on EI, EO, and CC under the moderation of ES. After a critical literature review, five key DT success factors were identified. Then, 490 valid questionnaires were analyzed with the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to assess how success factors affect DT effectiveness. This is complemented using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to assess prediction accuracy and understand which factors most influenced EI, EO, and CC. Research shows that ES exerts a significant positive influence on the relationships between most success factors and performance outcomes. High levels of ES enhance the contribution of success factors to performance in EI, EO, and CC. Resource management (RM) has a strong influence on EI and EO, but a weaker influence on CC; process optimization (PO) has the strongest influence on EO, a moderate influence on CC, and the weakest influence on EI; real-time monitoring (R-Tm) primarily affects EI; sustainable design (SD) has a comprehensive and significant regulatory effect on EI, EO, and CC; and predictive maintenance (PM) has a strong influence on both EI and CC. In practice, it offers practical guidance for implementing DT and supports policy and resource planning for building stakeholders.

As a significant source of global carbon emissions, the construction industry (CI) urgently needs to promote green transformation with the help of digital twin (DT) against the backdrop of human–machine collaboration and sustainable development advocated by CI 5.0. However, there is still a lack of systematic research on its specific driving mechanism and carbon reduction path. This study uses a systematic literature review (SLR) to explore how five key DT-enabled capabilities, namely, resource management (RM), process optimization (PO), real-time monitoring (R-Tm), sustainable design (SD), and predictive maintenance (PM), influence three performance indicators: efficiency improvement (EI), energy optimization (EO), and cost control (CC). Data from 490 companies were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP). The results show that the PLS-SEM and MLP models showed consistent patterns, with EO exhibiting the strongest predictive performance (Q² = 0.372; R² = 0.3666), followed by EI (Q² = 0.307; R² = 0.3109) and CC (Q² = 0.305; R² = 0.2609); the SHAP results further indicated that RM contributed most to EI (0.242), while PO was the most important driver for both EO (0.304) and CC (0.259). Academically, it introduces a quantitative approach combining PLS-SEM and machine learning. Practically, it highlights the priority of key technologies with cross-dimensional effects and offers guidance for governments to optimize digital resource allocation and carbon performance evaluation, as well as for enterprises to apply DT more effectively.