Objective: This study aims to assess the productive and economic performance of the Mexican milk sector, particularly focusing on small and medium-scale dairy farms, and examining pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a statistical univariate method with time series analysis (ARIMA), we analyzed productive efficiency and price behavior in Mexican dairy systems. Deterministic and stochastic estimations for production volume, milk price, and cattle inventory from 2021 to 2030 were established using confidence intervals to construct pessimistic (lower interval), base (mean), and optimistic (upper interval) scenarios. Results: The evaluated period witnessed an estimated 10.27% increase in production, equivalent to 576 million liters of milk, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0922%. Milk prices displayed an upward trend, with average prices of $0.66, $0.69, and $0.72 under pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. In 2030, a 22% price increase compared to 2021 was observed. Considering a base price of $0.45 USD per liter in 2030, costs under pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios were $1,658.21, $1,756.43, and $1,855.31, resulting in profits of $1,160.75, $1,229.50, and $1,022.45 from milk sales. Cattle inventory exhibited an upward trend, paralleling milk volumes and prices. Limitations on study/implications: The study's use of a univariate method may incompletely capture market dynamics complexity, potentially underestimating the impact of external market forces and global economic conditions on milk prices. Findings/conclusions: To secure forecasted milk volumes in base and optimistic scenarios, maintaining and enhancing good management practices is crucial. Additionally, addressing the imperative to augment production efficiency and improve environmental sustainability and animal welfare is essential.

This study assessed the economic and financial viability of representative smallholder dairy farms (RSDFs) by analyzing two farm types: (1) RSDFs that rely exclusively on family labor and milk receipts, and (2) RSDFs that employ hired labor and obtain income from milk in addition to sales of crops and agricultural by-products. A stochastic simulation based on empirical distributions derived from 44 years of historical data was used to project a 10-year horizon. Results indicate a low-to-minimal probability of decapitalization, an overall outlook of economic and financial viability, and a return on assets between 12% and 22%. Net present value (NPV) was positive for all RSDFs except one; however, in every case, NPV was lower than the opening asset value. Under current economic and policy conditions, RSDFs in the highlands of Mexico appear economically and financially viable through 2033. Family labor was associated with stronger economic and financial outcomes among the small-scale dairy farms evaluated.

Objective: to analyze the value chain of cheese production at the municipality scale, through a mixed approach combining the general guide, for evaluating value chains development, with the specific approach from a business perspective. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: the integration of both approaches allowed for a systemic analysis incorporating social and business dimensions. Main social actors, relationships and bottlenecks —congested points such as operations, specialized work force, or transport— along the chain were identified. Those processes that generate value and determine competitiveness in the local context were highlighted. Results: the value chain of cheese production in Aculco shows highly artisanal specialization, strong cultural roots, and significant contribution to local development. However, through the SWOT analysis, we found this production chain faces limitations in the articulation among producers, scarce innovation, and vulnerability to external economic and political factors. The mixed approach in this study conformed a methodological reference which can be applied to other agrifood systems to identify and strengthen organizational and business management capacities. Limitations/ Implications of the study: the analysis was limited to a specific municipality (Aculco, State of Mexico, Mexico) and results must be interpreted within that territorial scope. However, as a methodological reference it is applicable to other production chains, in localities with similar characteristics. Findings/ Conclusions: the value chain of cheese production in Aculco has both economic and cultural values, which make it a suitable option for the development of the local population. It is necessary to promote territorial integration and encourage sustainable practices that allow producers to foresee strategic scenarios in order to be adapted to changes in the environment.

Se analizó la estructura de la red de movilización porcina en el Estado de México. A través del análisis de redes sociales, se identificaron los principales municipios de origen y destino que participaron en la comercialización de cerdos para los mercados de rastro, engorda, reproducción y ferias, evaluando su centralidad e intermediación en la red. Los datos, provenientes de registros de movilización porcina autorizados por el Servicio Nacional de Sanidad, Inocuidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria (SENASICA), corresponden al periodo 2017-2021. Los resultados indicaron que la estructura general de la red está altamente centralizada en un número reducido de municipios, como La Paz y Ecatepec de Morelos, los cuales funcionaron como nodos clave en la distribución del ganado porcino. Esta centralización favoreció la eficiencia comercial al garantizar un flujo constante hacia mercados estratégicos, contribuyendo a la seguridad alimentaria y al crecimiento económico en los municipios más conectados. No obstante, también se identificaron riesgos importantes, como la vulnerabilidad ante interrupciones en la red, desigualdades económicas entre municipios y la generación de cuellos de botella en la distribución. Además, la baja densidad de conexiones entre municipios podría limitar la cohesión de la red, resaltando la necesidad de diversificar las relaciones comerciales y fortalecer la conectividad para reducir riesgos y fomentar una red más equitativa y resiliente.

Objective: Analyze corn production in Rural Development District (RDD) 7 “Valle de Bravo”, State ofMexico, focusing on the relationship between yield and sown area, as well as identifying factors that may affectthis production.Design/methodology/approach: Data from the Agri-Food and Fisheries Information System (SIAP) onsown area, production, and yield of corn (2003-2021) were used. Additionally, questionnaires were providedto RRD 7 producers. Statistical analyses were carried out with SPSS software and simple linear regressionmodels were applied to evaluate productivity and associated factors.Results: Corn yield showed linear growth; however, the sown area decreased as farmers have dedicatedthemselves to producing more profitable crops. Guaranteed prices per ton were deemed inadequate and highinput costs hindered agricultural production.Limitations: Farmers faced challenges such as high production costs and limited access to financial resources.Government programs offer some support for corn production; however, this is insufficient to address thestructural problems of the sector.Conclusions: A comprehensive strategy is needed to address the systemic challenges facing the corn sector.This includes measures to improve productivity, reduce production costs, ensure fair prices, promote cropdiversification and enhance access to resources and technologies that guarantee the long-term sustainability ofthe agri-food sector.