El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el desempeño ambiental de la producción de leche de vaca en sistema de pequeña y mediana escala en México, mediante análisis de ciclo de vida con un enfoque de la cuna a la puerta de la granja, para el periodo 2021-2030. Se estableció como unidad funcional 1 kg de leche corregida por grasa y proteína. La evaluación de impacto se realizó con el software OpenLCA 1.11.0, mediante el método ReCiPe, se consideraron siete categorías de impacto: ocupación de suelo agrícola (ALO), ecotoxicidad marina (ME), toxicidad humana (TH), cambio climático (CC), agotamiento fósil (FD), acidificación terrestre (TA) y agotamiento de agua (WD). Como principales resultados de la investigación se identificó que la producción de alimento para el ganado es el principal contribuyente a las cargas ambientales en la mayoría de las categorías con porcentajes superiores al 71 %, mientras que las emisiones generadas en la granja contribuyen a las cargas ambientales para las categorías CC (28 %), FD (26 %) y TA (59 %). Se realizó una comparación entre escenarios pesimista, base y optimista para los años 2021 y 2030, lo que confirmó una mejora en la eficiencia ambiental en el escenario optimista prospectado, el incremento en el volumen de producción representó una disminución del 6 % y 5 % respectivamente, en las categorías de impacto evaluadas.

Objective: This study aims to assess the productive and economic performance of the Mexican milk sector, particularly focusing on small and medium-scale dairy farms, and examining pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a statistical univariate method with time series analysis (ARIMA), we analyzed productive efficiency and price behavior in Mexican dairy systems. Deterministic and stochastic estimations for production volume, milk price, and cattle inventory from 2021 to 2030 were established using confidence intervals to construct pessimistic (lower interval), base (mean), and optimistic (upper interval) scenarios. Results: The evaluated period witnessed an estimated 10.27% increase in production, equivalent to 576 million liters of milk, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0922%. Milk prices displayed an upward trend, with average prices of $0.66, $0.69, and $0.72 under pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. In 2030, a 22% price increase compared to 2021 was observed. Considering a base price of $0.45 USD per liter in 2030, costs under pessimistic, base, and optimistic scenarios were $1,658.21, $1,756.43, and $1,855.31, resulting in profits of $1,160.75, $1,229.50, and $1,022.45 from milk sales. Cattle inventory exhibited an upward trend, paralleling milk volumes and prices. Limitations on study/implications: The study's use of a univariate method may incompletely capture market dynamics complexity, potentially underestimating the impact of external market forces and global economic conditions on milk prices. Findings/conclusions: To secure forecasted milk volumes in base and optimistic scenarios, maintaining and enhancing good management practices is crucial. Additionally, addressing the imperative to augment production efficiency and improve environmental sustainability and animal welfare is essential.

Background: Small-scale dairy systems are vital in rural communities and strategic for livelihoods an economic development. Objective: To estimate the economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy Representative Production Units (RPU) in the high plateau of the State of Mexico using a Monte Carlo simulation. Methodology: Net yields were estimated for a 5-year planning horizon via simulated values for the distribution of input and product processes, establishing 2022 as the base scenario. A stochastic modelling approach was used to determine the economic and financial outlook considering the cost of two sources of labor for the simulations: (1) Cost of family labor (FL); and (2) Cost of external hired labor (EL). Results: A panorama of economic viability was evidenced. However, a lack of financial wellbeing was also determined. When FL was factored in, net income was estimated in $17.99 thousand USD in 2023 and $26.35 thousand USD in 2027. On the other hand, considering EL resulted in a net income of $9.88 thousand USD in 2023 and $16.31 USD in 2027. The Net Present Value in 2027 was calculated at $-161.84 thousand USD and $-191.27 thousand USD, with FL and EL, respectively. While the RPUs were determined to be competitive, the level of risk was significant due to the high monetary value, limited degree of specialization of the RPUs, and the prevailing volatile scenario at the time. Implications: This study can enable decision-makers, on one hand, to analyze and design policies and differentiated strategies for small-scale dairy production systems. On the other hand, it can empower dairy farmers to assess scenarios of technical and productive intervention. Conclusions: The financial and economic weakening of the studied RPU could have negative implications in terms of public policy, labor, marketing, value chains, and the persistence of producers in such activity.