Since the Cambodian economy is largely dependent on agricultural production, it is important to understand the effects of climate change on rice production, the primary staple crop of Cambodia. This study assessed the economic impacts of climate change in Cambodia to provide an appropriate set of policy suggestions that could lead to sustainable agricultural productivity and economic growth. The results from the GLAM-Rice crop model and various climate models indicate that Cambodia will be severely affected by climate change, which will lead to lower rice production and economic growth. The changes in rice yield under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios reduced the GDP by 8.16% and 10.57%, respectively. By employing an investment model based on a real options framework, the economic effects and feasibility of adaptation strategies such as irrigation and adjustment of planting dates are identified. The analysis indicates that irrigation is a feasible option and the most efficacious strategy to reduce the negative impacts of climate change for the agricultural sector. The index of economic feasibility for irrigation, defined by the ratio of the current realized agriculture value-added to the identified threshold, is 0.6343 and 0.8803 under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios, respectively. The results suggest that the priority choice for adaptation measure be in order of irrigation, 20-day later adjustment, and 20-day earlier adjustment.
1 February 2020 in Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
An analysis for the value of carbon forestry needs to be provided for the successful establishment of the carbon offset market in Korea. We present an optimal management strategy for a forest owner who participates in the offset market. Given a stochastic process of the timber price following a geometric Brownian motion, the profit maximization problem of the forest owner is solved. The model finds an optimal harvest time in the presence of the carbon and timber revenues with opposing time effects. Sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the volatility rate of the timber price and the discount rate. The presented model is applied to the study of the Korean larch case to identify the threshold timber price above which it is optimal to harvest trees.
30 October 2019 in Journal of Productivity Analysis